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If you’re looking to be anything as a college football handicapper, it’s that you want to be consistent…consistently good.
After two weeks of the College Football Handicapping Challenge, I’ve shown some consistency. Unfortunately for me, I’ve been consistently bad. I posted my second straight 1-4 record in the contest.
Army got me a little excited with a solid opening against the Blue Devils, but disappeared in the second half. The Tar Heels surprised me by not being able to run the ball at all on the road against Connecticut. Georgia was able to hold off the Gamecocks for the win, but failed to cover. And the Cyclones looked more like a flushed toilet in their smackdown against intrastate rival Iowa.
While these picks didn’t help me out in moving up the standings, they did help some readers make some money by fading my selections. One such person is Dan Kofman from Los Angeles, who sent me this: “You have made me a very rich man sir, going against your plays last week. The fade will continue onto week 2 as I truly feel that every thing you touch turns to mush.” I certainly hope he was a man of his word and made the betting shops pay.
There was a nice jump in perfect participants this past weekend. In Week 1, we had just six players go five-for-five. And there were 14 contestants that had an unblemished record this past Saturday…here’s hoping you can keep running hot.
Now let’s get back up on that horse this week.
Clemson (-6 ½) vs. Boston College
According to Sportsbook.com, 88 percent of the money is currently on the Tigers to cover the spread this Saturday. And I have to say that I’m in that same boat with the rest of the public.
There will be a lot of people that will point out that Boston College has outscored its first two opponents by a combined score of 88-7. I have to point out that the Eagles took on Northeastern and Kent State. That duo isn’t the biggest set of world beaters. Plus, I’m convinced that BC won as convincingly over the Golden Flashes because Eugene Jarvis was injured after carrying the ball just 10 times.
Now the Eagles will take on Clemson’s C.J. Spiller, who gained 87 yards on the ground and another 69 receiving yards with a touchdown last week against Georgia Tech. He only picked up 55 yards against Boston College last season, but that was against a much better defense than the boys from Chestnut Hill currently employ.
Spiller will pace that Tigers to a solid home win over an ACC opponent.
Final Score: Clemson 29, Boston College 13
Arizona (+5 ½) at Iowa
I’m pretty sure that I’m not the only one out there wondering if the real Hawkeyes is the one that barely beat Northern Iowa or rolled Iowa State. My personal belief is that a blowout win over the Cyclones should be taken with a grain of salt. Giving up 270 passing yards to the Panthers, however, is of greater concern.
Matt Scott appears to have taken a firm grasp of Sonny Dykes’ spread attack at Arizona. He’s completed 66 percent of his passes for 352 yards and a score this year. Plus Scott has a partner in crime with Nic Grigsby, who just picked up 207 yards and a pair of touchdowns last week versus Northern Arizona.
Iowa played two games against teams that use spread style attacks last year (Purdue and Illinois) and failed to cover in either game. Something tells me that they ‘Cats won’t have any problems winning this game outright.
Final Score: Arizona 27, Iowa 19
Virginia Tech (-3 ½) vs. Nebraska
Year 2 of the Bo Pelini era in Nebraska has started great with two wins by a combined score of 87-12. Of course, those wins came against Sun Belt schools Florida Atlantic and Arkansas State. Perhaps they were only need as mere warmup matches for the Cornhuskers’ trip to Virginia Tech.
The ‘Huskers will no doubt have revenge on their mind this week after losing 35-30 last season to the Hokies in Lincoln. What killed them against Virginia Tech in 2008 was an inability to stop the run with much success. Frank Beamer’s boys were able to pick up 206 rushing yards on 55 carries.
At first blush, Nebraska looked like they’d have a chance here with Darren Evans out of the Hokies’ lineup. However, Virginia Tech is coming off of a game where they picked up 404 yards on the ground against the Thundering Herd. And they had two runners (Ryan Williams, David Wilson) that had over 160 rushing yards apiece.
Will that duo have that kind of success against? Not really. But they will have help Tyrod Taylor move the Hokies down the field.
Something else to consider is that Virginia Tech is 3-1 straight up and against the spread in its last four meetings against Big XII teams. The lone defeat came against the Jayhawks in the 2007 Orange Bowl.
Final Score: Virginia Tech 30, Nebraska 24
Cincinnati (+1 ½) at Oregon State
If the Bearcats are struggling with a brand new defense, then I’m having trouble seeing it. Cincinnati has given up just 18 points over the past two games. And while you can devalue their win over Southeast Missouri State, you can’t overlook the way the Bearcats handled Rutgers’s offense in the season opener.
Now Cincy is making the long trip out to the west coast to play the Beavers. Oregon State does have a penchant for strong defenses recently, but did have problems in beating UNLV last weekend. What was particularly of concern is OSU allowing the Rebels to pick up 228 yards.
All Tony Pike has done for Cincinnati this season is complete 77.2 percent of his passes for 591 yards and six touchdowns. No reason to think he won’t be able to handle Oregon State’s on Saturday.
The Beavers will keep it close thanks to James and Jacquizz Rodgers, but the Bearcats will cover a short number.
Final Score: Cincinnati 30, Oregon State 24
Syracuse (+4 ½) vs. Northwestern
Let’s be honest. Greg Paulus has not been bad under center for the Orange this season. If anything, he could use some receivers that actually know how to catch the ball. He’ll actually be getting a decent shot this week against the Wildcats.
The Wildcats had their hands full last week against Eastern Michigan, which uses a similar spread attack that Syracuse employs. I believe that the Orange have better talent than EMU has on offense and that will show this Saturday.
It also helps that the ‘Cuse has covered both games it has played against the Big Ten this season.
Final Score: Syracuse 27, Northwestern 20
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
