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It took a while, but I finally got over to the side of the winners for a weekend in the College Football Handicapping Challenge. My record last Saturday was only 3-2, but that is a big improvement over back-to-back 1-4 weekends.
Syracuse came through with my upset special against Northwestern. Clemson and Cincinnati also came away with great wins as well. Arizona didn’t click on offense as I felt they would. And the Hokies may have escaped with a win, but failed to give me my precious cover.
I was in the majority for last week’s results with 37 percent of our players picked three winners. We also had 44 participants that went five-for-five in Week 3…a terrific job done by them as well.
So can we make it two straight weeks with a winning record? Let’s find out.
South Florida (+14 ½) at Florida State
People are jumping off of the Bulls faster than rats got off of the Titanic and I just don’t see it. South Florida may have lost program stalwart and Alfred E. Neuman lookalike Matt Grothe under center. He had a great arm and mobility. But what people are forgetting that new starter B.J. Daniels possesses the same skill.
As long as Daniels can keep his mistakes to a minimum, then USF’s defense will take care of the rest. The Bulls are 13th in the nation by allowing 227.67 yards per game. South Florida is letting opposing teams to converting one out of every five third downs right now, which is the fourth best average in the country.
So you have a quality defense going against the Seminoles, who will be down after such a dominating win last weekend in Provo. Look for the Bulls to cover.
Final Score: Florida State 27, South Florida 17
Miami (-2 ½) at Virginia Tech
The Hokies may have won last week, but it almost seemed like they did so to spite their backers. Virginia Tech’s offense may have gained 278 yards last week and had to fight for each yard against the Cornhuskers. Tyrod Taylor only completed 12 of his 27 passes for just 192 and the one score.
Now Taylor is taking on a defense that is every bit as good as the one Virginia Tech has. Plus, the Hurricanes are running very smooth on offense right now. Jacory Harris has been good (I’m not going to the ass-kissing heights of ESPN on him just yet) as he’s averaging 328.0 YPG through the air and five scores.
I look at the defenses being a push for both sides, but the offensive edge definitely going to Miami. And the fact we’re getting them as such a low favorite is a gift.
Final Score: Miami 30, Virginia Tech 10
Arizona (-1 ½) at Oregon State
The Wildcats didn’t do nearly as well as I had hope last week against Iowa. So what do you do when a team doesn’t perform? Why you bet them the very next weekend.
Oregon State may have been a one-point home favorite against the Bearcats last weekend, but they got torched for 408 yards in a 28-18 setback. Is there anything to say that they can hold down another offense that can run hot like Arizona possesses? I’m not so sure it can even with the ‘Cats have Nick Foles taking the snaps.
Arizona will have no problems winning its first game in this series since 2005, which is the last time they were victorious in Corvallis.
Final Score: Arizona 28, Oregon State 20
Notre Dame (-7 ½) at Purdue
There was plenty of fight in the Irish last Saturday as they avoided their second straight last-minute defeat to a Big Ten squad with a 33-30 win against Michigan State.
Jimmy Clausen had a great game, but it was Armando Allen that shined for Notre Dame. Allen picked up 115 yards and a score on 23 carries to go along with a five-yard touchdown catch. The win did come at a price with Michael Floyd getting knocked out for the rest of the season with a broken clavicle.
Now the Fighting Irish are heading to Purdue, who just got upset by Northern Illinois in a surprising trap game. The Boilermakers will be expecting Joey Elliot to get through ND’s defense. Not a daunting task since the Irish have allowed 889 yards in its last two games.
I’m taking Charlie Weis’ program for this intrastate battle because the talent is weighted heavily in his favor. And the Irish are 5-0 straight up and 3-2 against the spread when favored by at least seven-points on the road since 2005.
Final Score: Notre Dame 37, Purdue 18
Stanford (-7 ½) vs. Washington
The Huskies came out of last week’s game versus Southern Cal with a signature victory for Steve Sarkisian and a ranking in the AP Poll. While the win is impressive, the ranking is completely overrated for a team that went 0-12 the year before.
Washington now finds itself in a strange spot with the Cardinal where the winner of this week’s game will have sole possession of first place in the Pac-10. Stanford hasn’t looked bad in its first three games of the year, but choking away a 17-3 lead at Wake Forest still has to hurt.
Sarkisian’s side does find itself in the same spot that Jim Harbaugh’s club was in a couple years ago after upsetting the Trojans. Will this be a precursor of good things to come or will it be a flash in the pan?
Jake Locker’s success this Saturday will dictate if the Huskies leave Palo Alto with a win or a loss. He got knocked out of last year’s matchup early with a broken thumb. And the only win he has against the Cardinal was because of Louis Rankin running for 255 yards in 2007.
I don’t see Washington winning here as Harbaugh has his team playing well at Stanford Stadium. The Cardinal are 5-1 SU and ATS since last season. That number will improve this weekend.
Final Score: Stanford 27, Washington 13
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com