If there is anything that we can hold as a certainty in college football after Week 4, it’s that there is no certainty at all. The week started with No. 4 Mississippi falling in Columbia to the Gamecocks, but that was a mere precursor for what Saturday was yet to bring.
The Associated Press Top 25 went a combined 16-6 straight up against either unranked or lower ranked foes this past Saturday. However, three of those losses were Top 10 programs that fell by the wayside.
Our biggest upset of the evening came in Happy Valley where No. 5 Penn State went down to the Hawkeyes as a 9 ½-point home “chalk,” 21-10. Things looked good for the Nittany Lions early as they racked up a 10-0 first quarter lead. Iowa controlled the game from there on out. The Hawkeyes sacked Daryll Clark for a safety to get them on the board. PSU went on to convert just four out of its 13 third downs from the second quarter on. Clark was picked off three times, two of which were cashed in for a combined 10 points by Iowa. This was the second straight upset for the Hawkeyes over Penn State and their seven win in the last eight head-to-head matchups.
The upsets didn’t start in State College, Pennsylvania though. Eighteenth-ranked Florida State got to play host to the upstart Bulls as a 14-point home favorite. Everything looked like a perfect storm for the Seminoles to cash in with a big win. The ‘Noles were coming off of big beatdown of Brigham Young in Provo the previous weekend and USF just lost starting QB Matt Grothe for the season. All that meant is B.J. Daniels got to show what South Florida fans could look forward to as he ran for 126 yards and threw two touchdowns to beat FSU, 17-7.
The Bulls’ defense also did their part in holding Florida State to just 288 total yards of offense, while moving the chains just twice on 12 third-down opportunities. The only thing better than the win in Tallahassee for fans was that bettors that took USF to win outright were treated to a plus-425 return (risk $100 to win $425).
Things weren’t much better in Blacksburg for the Hurricanes’ showdown against Virginia Tech as 2 ½-point road faves. A torrential downpour denied both sides a chance to find its rhythm, but still afforded the No. 11 Hokies an impressive 31-7 victory over No. 9 Miami.
Miami converted on third down just once in the 11 chances they had against the Hokies, which could be blamed mostly on the monsoon. The most telling stat was that the Hurricanes had three drives where they gained more than 40 yards. Yet only once in those three sets did they find the end zone; the other two times ended with a turnover on downs. Should be fun to hear the excuses of the Hurricanes’ fans this week, yes?
California was another team that bit the dust on Saturday afternoon. The Golden Bears entered their game with Oregon as six-point road favorites. They walked out of Autzen Stadium with their tails between their legs after getting pummeled 42-3. Kevin Riley passed for 123 yards, but was sacked four times. Heisman Trophy candidate Jahvid Best will have to become a spin doctor to explain why he only gained 55 yards on 16 carries. Cal’s secondary will also be standing at the podium to tell us how Jeremiah Masoli completed 21 of 25 passes for 253 yards and three scores.
Not all of the games on Saturday would force fans and bettors to bone up on their Russian Roulette rules. No, some of the games would merely make them wear a path in their nice Berber carpeting.
Cincinnati wasn’t expected to have too many issues against the Bulldogs. After all, the Bearcats were listed as 17-point home favorites. Tony Pike guided their quick-strike attack brilliantly with three touchdown passes and 300 yards through the air. Yet Cincy only won this game 28-20 over Fresno State. That had a lot to do with running back Ryan Matthews for the ‘Dogs. Matthews picked up 145 yards on the ground, while the team combined for 290 total rushing yards. This will definitely pick up betting against the likes of the Bulls or the Fighting Illini as the year progresses.
In Ann Arbor, the Wolverines hadn’t lost to Indiana since LBJ was in the White House. Michigan needed Tate Forcier to find Martavious Odoms in the end zone to hold off the Hoosiers as a 19-point home favorite, 36-33. Indiana actually outgained the Wolverines 467-372 and won the turnover battle 2-1. What killed the Hoosiers here was getting into the red zone three times in the second quarter and walking away with nine points. There is no excuse for Indiana to not have won this game.
The Bayou Bengals had their hands full in Starkville against Mississippi State as 12 ½-point road favorites. The Bulldogs won the yardage battle (374-263), third-down efficiency (LSU, 2-13; MSU, 8-19), but still wound up losing 30-26 on a goal line stand by Louisiana State. To be honest, the Tigers would not have won this game had it not been for the turnovers. Mississippi State turned the ball over four times in the first half, resulting in 10 points, which was just enough to help Les Miles appear to be a decent coach once again.
People were expecting a shootout of Arena Football-like proportions when the Red Raiders traveled to Houston. What they got instead was the Cougars driving 95 yards in the final six minutes to win as 1 ½-point home pups, 29-28. Case Keenum completed 38 of 58 passes for 435 yards and a touchdown. But more importantly, Keenum crossed the goal line on a four-yard run that gave Houston its second win over a Big XII program in 2009.
We can’t forget about the No. 1 Gators, who dropped 31 points in the opening quarter en route to a 41-7 win as 20 ½-point road faves versus Kentucky. While the outcome was nice for bettors since Florida covered, it may have come at a price. Tim Tebow was knocked out of the game the third quarter due to a teammate’s knee to his head. Tebow got off the field on his own, but was taken to a Lexington hospital for observations. It was a rough week for the starting QB as he’s been hit with a respiratory illness that caused him and other players to take a separate flight to Kentucky. Odds are good he’ll be ready in time for Florida’s next game, an Oct. 10 battle in Baton Rouge with LSU.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
