Editor's note: Brian Edwards has hit five consecutive guaranteed winners, including La. Tech on Wednesday and the 'over' in last night's CU-WVU game. Don't miss out on his two-game parlay for Pitt-Louisville or just go with his pay-if-it-wins-only selection!

During the VI Handicapping Seminar at Red Rock Casino in August, I predicted that Louisville would start 2-5 and fire third-year head coach Steve Kragthorpe following a blowout loss at Cincinnati on Oct. 24. Furthermore, I called for former Tennessee coach Phillip Fulmer to be named his replacement before Thanksgiving.

To date, I’ve seen nothing to deter my original thought process. After going 41-9 during Bobby Petrino’s four-year tenure, the Cardinals have fallen off the national radar with an abysmal 12-15 record on Kragthorpe’s watch.

If Kragthorpe is going to save his job, he had better start by leading Louisville (1-2 straight up, 1-1 against the spread) to a home win Friday night at Papa John Stadium. Las Vegas Sports Consultants opened Pittsburgh (3-1 SU, 2-1 ATS) as six-point favorite with a total of 53 ½.

As of early this afternoon, most betting shops had the Panthers favored by seven with the total at 53 1/2. U of L is plus-220 on the money line (risk $100 to win $220).

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Dave Wannstedt’s team is playing its second road game in as many weeks. Pitt went to Raleigh last weekend and had a 31-17 lead late in the third quarter. However, Russell Wilson threw a pair of fourth-quarter touchdown passes to spark North Carolina St. to a 38-31 comeback victory. The Wolfpack took the cash as a 1 ½-point home underdog.

In the losing effort, Bill Stull threw for 206 yards and two TD passes without an interception. For the season, the senior quarterback has completed 65.6 percent of his throws for 746 yards with an outstanding 8/1 touchdown-interception ratio.

With LeSean McCoy and LaRod Stephens-Howling now wearing NFL uniforms, Pitt came into 2009 without any experience in the backfield. Nevertheless, the running-back position has been a strength thanks to the emergence of redshirt freshman RB Dion Lewis, who has 493 rushing yards and seven TDs. Lewis is averaging 5.7 yards per carry.

Louisville started the season with a 30-10 home win over Indiana St. in a non-lined affair. After an open date, the Cardinals had a great shot at pulling an upset in the Governor’s Cup at Kentucky. But the Wildcats rallied in the fourth quarter -- just like they did against the Cards in Lexington in 2007 – to capture a 31-27 win. On the bright side, U of L backers cashed tickets catching 13 points.

Kragthorpe’s team went to Utah last week and lost a 30-14 decision. The Utes covered the number as 14-point home favorites. U of L found itself down 20-0 at intermission, only to get back ahead of the number twice (20-7 and 23-14) before letting down their backers in the end.

The Cards couldn’t muster anything on the ground against Utah, rushing 35 times for merely 80 yards. Junior QB Justin Burke, a transfer from N.C. St., had an eight-yard TD run and a 16-yard TD pass to Cameron Graham, but he connected on just 15-of-33 passes for 181 yards with an interception.

For the year, Burke has completed only 51.1 percent of his passes for 649 yards with a mediocre ¾ touchdown-interception ratio. RB Victor Anderson has a team-high 225 rushing yards and three TDs. He’s averaging 5.2 YPC.

Louisville is in its fifth home underdog situation during Kragthorpe’s tenure. The Cards are 2-2 ATS previously, winning outright twice against both Kansas St. and USF last season.

Pitt has already been a road favorite twice this year. The Panthers thumped Buffalo 54-27 as 11-point ‘chalk’ in Week 2, but they were unable to duplicate that accomplishment at N.C. St. They are now 5-6 ATS as road favorites on Wannstedt’s watch.

Louisville starting safety Terrence Simien remains “out” after suffering a kidney laceration in the loss at UK. Simien had 10 tackles and one interception in the Cards’ first two games. Starting LB Brandon Heath is “probable” after leaving last week’s game with a sprained ankle.

After missing back-to-back games, Pitt starting MLB Adam Gunn (ankle) is “probable” this week. Gunn, a senior who missed all of 2008 due to an injury, had 59 tackles including six for losses as a starter in 2007. Reserve DE Tyler Tkach is “doubtful” with a foot injury and starting free safety Andrew Taglianetti is done for the season after tearing his ACL.

According to weather.com, clear conditions are expected with temperatures in the 50s. Wind could be a minor factor at 10-15 miles per hour.

ESPN will provide the telecast of this Big East showdown at 8:00 p.m. Eastern.

**B.E.’s Bonus Nuggets**

--This week bettors have a second Friday night game to wager on, as BYU is poised to host Utah St. at 9:00 p.m. Eastern on the Mountain West Network. LVSC had the Cougars at minus 27 on the send-out, but they were down to 24 as of Thursday. The total is 65 at most books. Dating back to last year, the Aggies have covered the spread in five consecutive games.

--Hawaii QB Greg Alexander sustained a sprained knee in Wednesday’s 27-6 loss at La. Tech. His status for an Oct. 10 home game against Fresno St. is in doubt.

--Iowa is 4-0 SU and 3-0 ATS after dropping Penn St. 21-10 as a nine-point underdog in Happy Valley last Saturday. The Hawkeyes are 21-point home ‘chalk’ versus Arkansas St. this week, but they are an abysmal 2-6 ATS in their last eight spots as double-digit favorites. With that said, the Red Wolves are 0-3 ATS as double-digit underdogs since winning 18-14 at Texas A&M in the 2008 season opener.

--Since the South Carolina defense made N.C. St.’s Russell Wilson looked lost and confused in Week 1, the sophomore QB has been on fire. Wilson has thrown four TD passes in each of the Wolfpack’s last three games. He has a 12/0 TD-INT ratio this year after posting 17/1 number as a freshman. By my math, that’s a career TD-INT ratio of 29/1. And that’s unreal!

--Ohio St. has won 14 in a row against Indiana with the Hoosiers last victory coming in 1987.

--My Top Ten:
1-Florida
2-Alabama
3-Texas
4-Virginia Tech
5-Oklahoma
6-Boise St.
7-LSU
8-USC
9-Cincinnati
10-Ohio St.

--Hottest Hot Seats:
1-Steve Kragthorpe (Louisville)
2-Dan Hawkins (Colorado)
3-Ron Zook (Illinois)
4-Charlie Weis (Notre Dame)
5-Al Groh (Virginia)

Brian Edwards can be reached at briane@vegasinsider.com.

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