We’ve gone through five weeks of the college football campaign and we’ve been able to thin the national title herd a little bit. One team that is surprisingly off the list are the Sooners, who have three possible first round picks out of their lineup on offense. While Oklahoma’s dreams are done, our aspirations are not in the College Handicapping Challenge. Last week wasn’t all that great for me as I posted a 2-3 mark. Not a great Saturday, but certainly better than the 1-4 efforts that I had in the first two weeks of the challenge. The good thing about gambling is that a bad weekend’s outing can be erased the very next weekend.
Minnesota (-3 ½) vs. Purdue
On the surface, this game looks like its between a pair of also-rans in the Big Ten. That isn’t fair to the Golden Gophers though. Minnesota two home losses were against the Golden Bears and Badgers – not the worst teams to fall to when you think about it. Plus, the Gophers were in those games until the final quarter.
Purdue did have the Fighting Irish on the ropes, but inexplicably lost to Northern Illinois. The Boilermakers have been fairly lax against the pass this year, giving up 240.0 yards per game through the air.
The last 10 head-to-head meetings have seen the Boilermakers go 8-2 straight up and 7-2-1 against the spread. Yet the Gophers are 2-1-1 ATS in the last four showdowns. Look for Minnesota to cover in a shootout.
Final Score: Minnesota 37, Purdue 30
Houston (-2 ½) at Mississippi State
Last Saturday had to play out like a bad dream for the Cougars against UTEP. Houston allowed 305 yards on the ground as they fell to the Miners 58-41. So a BCS berth is out of the question for Kevin Sumlin’s crew, but still have a shot at the C-USA title.
The Bulldogs have shown a lot of promise in Dan Mullen’s first year in Starkville with a near victory against LSU two weeks ago. But it’s apparent that there is much left to do with Mississippi State to qualify them as a contender for anything more than an upset win.
A main area of concern for Mississippi State that will help out the Cougars is the fact that the Yellow Jackets just threw for 266 yards against them. Houston leads the nation with 446.0 passing YPG. Look for the Cougs to cover for the third time as underdogs to Mississippi State.
Final Score: Houston 49, Mississippi State 20
Florida State (+2 ½) vs. Georgia Tech
There hasn’t been a shortage of drama in Tallahassee this week as the chairman of the Florida State’s trustees said it was time for Bobby Bowden to step down for Jimbo Fisher. That will happen when you get upended by Boston College and South Florida over the last two weeks. Bowden is quite ready to take the bus to Hometown Buffet just yet with the Yellow Jackets coming to town this Saturday.
Georgia Tech has responded well to losing to the Hurricanes on national television, beating Mississippi State and North Carolina. The Yellow Jackets showed that they can throw the ball effectively last weekend against the Bulldogs, while still gaining 213 on the ground.
I’m sure they’ll be a lot of people that will take the Jackets to win at Doak Campbell Stadium. There’s just one problem with that…Georgia Tech has never won in Tallahassee. It’s not happening this weekend either.
Final Score: Florida State 29, Georgia Tech 25
Auburn (-3 ½) at Arkansas
Gene Chizik was chided when introduced as the head coach at Auburn during the offseason. Those doubters have been quieted as the Tigers are currently 5-0 SU and 4-1 ATS under the former Iowa State coach.
Chizik is known for his defensive prowess after running the stopping unit for the Longhorns when they won the 2005 national championship. Yet the Tigers are doing it more on the attack this season with a passing game that is averaging 259.0 YPG this season.
The Razorbacks showed Texas A&M what’s what last weekend in a 47-19 beatdown in College Station. Ryan Mallet helped the Hogs pick up the win by connecting on 17 of his 21 passes for 271 yards and four touchdowns.
This could be anyone’s game, but there is one trend that is too large to ignore. The home team is 1-6 SU and 3-4 ATS in the last seven games of this series. It’s certainly worth taking the Tigers to stay perfect.
Final Score: Auburn 27, Arkansas 13
Florida (-7 ½) at LSU
The Gators have had a week off, but there is still no word on whether Tim Tebow will play this weekend in Baton Rouge. He was at practice on Tuesday afternoon and participated on a limited basis. Urban Meyer has had John Brantley taking some snaps just in case he’ll need to be under center.
Regardless of who starts for Florida, they’ll be taking on an LSU defense that is currently giving up 321.6 YPG this season. And the Tigers have lived on the edge the past two weekends: needing a goal line stand vs. Mississippi State and scoring in the final minute against Georgia.
I don’t believe it will matter who starts at QB for the Gators because the LSU has been living on borrowed time the last two weekends. It also helps that Florida has covered the number in four straight games and eight of the last 10.
Final Score: Florida 38, LSU 24
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
