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Another week of college football to look forward to, giving us another opportunity to see who the public may overvalue this week after a strong performance last week. This week, we'll investigate a pair of ACC contests, as well as two underrated SEC clubs.
Auburn (-2 ½) at Arkansas - 12:00 PM EST
Two SEC West teams that didn't get the early-season love Alabama, Ole Miss, and LSU received are suddenly getting recognized. Auburn has run the ball extremely well through its first five victories, while Arkansas is slinging the ball around at a solid clip.
The Tigers have scored at least 37 points in four of their five games, while being held to just 26 points at Tennessee last week. This is the second straight SEC road contest for Auburn, and their first opportunity as a road favorite.
Bobby Petrino's squad returns home after two straight road contests, falling at Alabama, before blasting Texas A&M in Arlington. It was obvious that the Hogs would improve offensively under Petrino, but quarterback Ryan Mallett has stepped up, throwing 11 touchdowns and just two interceptions.
Six of the last seven meetings have been won by the home team in this series, as VI capper Joe Nelson sees a nice advantage with Arkansas. "Auburn appears to have impressive rushing numbers this season, but much of that average was built in the first two weeks and that advantage will not be as significant as it appears in the stats. Arkansas is 0-2 in SEC play and this will be a critical game, while Auburn is playing a second straight road game coming off a huge win at Tennessee last week. The situation greatly favors Arkansas and the price is excellent as the home team probably should be a slight favorite," Nelson says.
Boston College at Virginia Tech (-13 ½) - 12:00PM EST
Suddenly, the Boston College Eagles have become the biggest surprise in the ACC through the first five weeks. BC is coming off consecutive strong home performances against Wake Forest and Florida State, while starting conference play at 2-1. The Eagles were limited to seven points at Clemson, but BC has tallied 55 points the last two weeks.
Virginia Tech continues to motor forward after its opening week loss to Alabama. The Hokies have two solid victories on their ledger at home, beating Nebraska and Miami. Frank Beamer's team had problems putting away Duke last week, beating the Blue Devils, 34-26. A potential letdown should have been expected after the prior two victories, but Virginia Tech still outgained Duke, 477-397.
Nelson says there is a chance for a BC letdown this week. "The quarterback situation is a bit more settled with David Shinskie playing mistake-free ball last week, but this looks like a bad situation for BC coming off the 'Gameday' win last week. That said, Virginia Tech will face a steep line and the Hokies have looked vulnerable against the pass this season," Nelson states. However, as Nelson notes, the Eagles aren't afraid of the Hokies, "BC has had the recent series edge covering in seven of the last ten meetings and Virginia Tech has not been great in the home favorite role."
Maryland at Wake Forest (-11) - 6:30 PM EST
Both these ACC clubs are coming off home victories last week, but it was a bigger deal for Maryland, who picked up its first conference win of the season. The Terps knocked off Clemson as nearly two-touchdown underdogs, 24-21. Wake Forest rebounded from an overtime loss at Boston College to beat N.C. State, 30-24. The Deacons did pick off Russell Wilson twice, the Wolfpack quarterback's first two interceptions of the season.
Since the opening week win over Baylor, Jim Grobe's Deacons have outgained the opposition in each of the last four games. Riley Skinner has completed 68% of his passes, while tossing 11 touchdowns. Maryland has owned this series from an ATS standpoint, covering eight of the last ten meetings, including last season's 26-0 shutout in College Park.
The Terps, who have been snakebitten on many facets, will be without leading rusher Da'Rel Scott for the rest of the season with a broken wrist.
Nelson points to Maryland as a potential play this week, as Wake has struggled to cover huge lines at home, "Since 2002, Wake Forest is 9-18 ATS as home favorites and discounting a lopsided win over Elon, all of Wake's games have been decided by a touchdown or less making a double-digit spread look a bit steep."
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
