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The marquee matchup on Saturday is happening in Baton Rouge, but there are some other games that are worth watching. There are two games this weekend that will go a long way towards deciding where the conference titles will go through. It just so happens that both tilts feature double-digit home favorites.
Boston College at Virginia Tech – 12:00 p.m. EDT
Boston College and Virginia Tech have met in the last two ACC Championship Games with Frank Beamer’s boys walking away with the BCS berth. While the Hokies were expected to have another shot at the conference title game, BC was supposed to be in a slump.
The Eagles weren’t given much of a chance to do anything in Frank Spaziani’s first year at the helm. Boston College was starting over with no clear cut choice under center and losing linebacker Mark Herzlich for the year as he battled with bone cancer.
All Boston College has done this season is field a defense that is second in the ACC in scoring defense (15.4 points per game) and the third-best scoring offense (30.0 PPG) in the league. The Eagles saw their defense bend but not break in a 28-21 win over Florida State as four-point home underdogs last Saturday. BC gave up 411 yards and held the Seminoles to four third-down conversions in 11 chances.
Virginia Tech had its hands full against the Blue Devils last weekend in its 34-26 win as a 17-point road “chalk.” Tyrod Taylor completed 17 of 22 passes for a career-high 327 yards and two touchdowns. The Hokies helped keep Duke in this game by being called for 12 penalties that gobbled up 105 total yards.
Most sportsbooks have posted the Hokies as 13 ½-point home favorites with a total of 44 ½. That line has held true for much of the week, with just one quick instance of Virginia Tech going up to 14-points for a brief period.
This series has been pretty even recently with each team going 3-3 straight up and against the spread. The ‘under’ has been a solid wager with a 4-2 mark.
Boston College is 5-2 ATS in its last seven ACC matchups. The ‘over’ is 5-2 in that stretch as well.
Virginia Tech is 13-0 SU, but just 5-8 ATS in its last 13 games where they were listed as double-digit favorites.
Wisconsin at Ohio State – 3:30 p.m. EDT
The Badgers might be one of the quieter teams to start a season 5-0 SU in a while. It’s not hard to understand why they’ve slipped under the radar this year when you consider that they’re 3-2 ATS, winning four of their games by eight points or less.
Wisconsin was able to stay perfect thanks to John Clay running for 184 yards and three touchdowns in its 31-28 win over the Golden Gophers as a three-point road pup 31-28. It wasn’t the cleanest win for the Badgers, fumbling the ball away twice and Scott Tolzien threw one pick.
Tolzien has done a great job for the Badgers in his first season as the starting quarterback. He’s completing 65.6 percent of his passes for 1,043 yards and has nine touchdowns to just three interceptions. He’s a big reason why Wisky leads the Big Ten in scoring with 35.0 PPG.
Ohio State has been a team on a mission since its heartbreaking defeat to the Trojans in Week 2 of the season. The Buckeyes have outscored their last three opponents 101-14…that includes shutout wins over Toledo and Illinois. A lot of that offensive success has to do with Terrelle Pryor being under center. Pryor has completed 60 percent of his passes for 12.3 yards per completion in his last three starts with seven touchdowns. And he’s also averaged 5.6 yards per carry during this streak.
The betting shops aren’t buying into Wisky right now as they’ve listed the Bucks as heavy 16-point home favorites with a total of 47 ½.
Wisconsin has fared quite well in Columbus in recent memory, going 3-1 SU and ATS in its last four trips. The ‘over’ is 3-1 in that time frame.
As dominant as the Badgers may appear to be at Ohio Stadium, just consider that the Buckeyes are 15-1 SU and 11-4-1 ATS when they’re listed as double-digit home favorites in Big Ten affairs.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
