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There was a pair of big games this past weekend on the college gridiron that gave us a clearer view of the pretenders and contenders from both the national and conference standpoint.
The biggest thing I saw from this past weekend is that the Gators are head and shoulders above the rest of the nation. LSU may have only lost by 10 to Florida, but it might as well have been 30 points.
We’ve got another three-pack of matches this week that set up nicely for a trap.
A Devilish Problem…
Washington looked like they were heading to a 33-28 loss as the Wildcats were moving the ball with under 40 seconds to play. Instead of sulking, the Huskies got a lucky break as Mason Foster picked off Nick Foles for a 37-yard touchdown to claim a 36-33 victory as 3 ½-point home underdogs.
Now Steve Sarkisian and the Huskies head out to Tempe to play with Arizona State.
The Sun Devils are coming off of a 27-14 win at Washington State. A nice victory, but the Cougars have been embarrassed by a Hawaii squad that isn’t all that great.
So why would you take a chance on Arizona State to cover? Try the fact that the Sun Devils have gone 5-0 straight up and against the spread in the last five head-to-head meetings. Plus, the Huskies have already failed to cover at Stanford after pulling off the upset against Southern Cal this season.
Horned Frog Stomp…
The Horned Frogs had their problems with the weather in Colorado this past weekend as they took on Air Force. Quarterback Andy Dalton had a rough day, completing just 16-of-28 passes for 198 yards to go along with being sacked three times. Yet TCU still found a way to keep perfect on the year with a 20-17 win as a 10-point road “chalk.”
TCU heads home this week to play against the Rams, but there is a reason to be a little apprehensive of backing the home team.
Colorado State may not look like a team that could pull off the upset. After all, they are just 3-3 SU this season, but 3-1-1ATS. And the Rams’ actually coughed up a 17-10 lead in the final quarter last week to Utah to fall 24-17.
Another thing to consider is that the Rams were stopped only by Texas Christian’s defense in the 2008 battle. Colorado State was able to cover as a heavy 15 ½-point home pup, 13-7. The Frogs held on for that win due to holding CSU to just four third-down conversions in 14 chances.
Also, the Horned Frogs will no doubt be thinking of their huge tilt with Brigham Young the following week. A victory there could pace TCU to an unbeaten year and maybe another BCS berth for the Mountain West Conference.
Hawkeyes Down…
There is only one team left unbeaten in the Big Ten this year and it’s Iowa. The Hawkeyes retained that distinction after holding on to beat Michigan 30-28 last Saturday night. Their defense was impressive in holding the Wolverines to just 3-of-11 third-down conversions. They also knocked Tate Forcier out of the game after connecting on eight passes for 94 yards and a pick.
The Hawkeyes will look to stay perfect this Saturday when they travel to Madison for a showdown with Wisconsin.
Forgive me for buying into Iowa this weekend, but I’ve seen this fade spot before. As a matter of fact, we all saw it happen just a couple of weeks ago. The Hawkeyes won at Penn State a couple weeks ago under the lights. The following week, they failed to cover as 21 ½-point home favorites in a 24-21 win against Arkansas State.
The Hawkeyes actually own this series for bettors recently with a 7-2 ATS mark in the last nine games against Wisky. However, Iowa is 0-3 SU and ATS in its last three games on the road after playing against the Wolverines.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
