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College football is in full swing and we’re seeing who the real contenders are for the national championship. We’ve also reached Week 7 in the College Handicapping Challenge, giving you more chances to win some prizes. I went three-for-five last Saturday with my only losses coming from Auburn and Florida State. As good as I feel about having a winning week, I’m still just 43 percent for the season.
Wake Forest (+6 ½) at Clemson
The Demon Deacons are flying high after taking down Maryland last weekend, 42-32. While it was a good win, it killed their backers since they were 13 ½-point home favorites. Even worse was the fact is that they gave up the cover in allowing 15 points to the Terps in a garbage fourth-quarter.
Clemson hasn’t enjoyed a renaissance in Dabo Swinney’s first season as they’ve lost three of its last four games straight up. And the Tigers aren’t helping anyone out at the betting shops recently as they’ve failed to cover the spread in their last two tilts.
I don’t have any doubts that the Tigers will get a win here as the home team is 7-3 straight up in the last 10 head-to-head meetings. What makes me believe that Wake Forest will keep it closer than a touchdown is that they’re on a 5-1 run against the spread in this series. Plus, Jim Grobe is 9-19 SU and 15-11-2 ATS when posted as a road underdog since coming to Wake in 2001.
Final Score: Clemson 18, Wake Forest 15
Iowa (+3 ½) at Wisconsin
When you look at the Big Ten Conference as a whole you’ll notice that Iowa is one of two (the other being Ohio State) that controls its destiny for the league title. The Hawkeyes are coming off of another quality primetime appearance with a 30-28 win over Michigan as 8 ½-point home favorites last Saturday. It looked like Iowa would cover the number here, but Denard Robinson found the end zone for Michigan with just over three minutes remaining for a backdoor cover.
The Badgers was dealt a very tough loss at Ohio State. Wisconsin actually outgained the Bucks 368-184, but still wound up losing SU and ATS as a 14 ½-point road underdog 31-13. How could such a thing happen? Well it helps to have your starting quarterback, Scott Tolzien, give up two interceptions that were ran back for touchdowns. Now he’s facing a better pass defense in Iowa (171.0 yards per game) and are second in the nation for takeaways (19).
Something else to consider is that the Hawkeyes are 5-2 SU and 7-1 ATS in their last eight meetings with Wisconsin. Iowa shouldn’t have any problems covering as an underdog this week.
Final Score: Iowa 27, Wisconsin 24
Mississippi State (-4 ½) at Middle Tennessee State
The Bulldogs aren’t going to go bowling this season, but they are much more respectable in Dan Mullen’s first year in Starkville. It’s definitely noticeable on the attack as the Bulldogs are scoring 27.5 PPG this season; they averaged 15.3 PPG in 2008.
Middle Tennessee State has had a good start to the year, but last week’s 31-7 loss at Troy has left a bad taste in bettor’s mouths. The Blue Raiders are still worth a look in this game as they’re 2-0 ATS in their last two games against Mississippi State. Also, the Raiders are 2-3 SU and 4-1 ATS in their last five matches as home ‘dogs.
Final Score: Middle Tennessee State 26, Mississippi State 20
Boston College (-2 ½) vs. North Carolina State
I don’t think there is any argument that the Eagles were just plain outclassed by Virginia Tech last weekend in their 48-14 beatdown. If there is anything we can say it’s that they have nowhere to go but up.
Luckily that will happen this week against North Carolina State. The Wolfpack have lost two straight games to the likes of Duke and at Wake Forest. Add in the fact that the home team in this series is 3-1 SU and ATS and you have a pretty solid play with Boston College this Saturday.
Final Score: Boston College 35, North Carolina State 27
Missouri (+7 ½) at Oklahoma State
The Tigers looked like they were going to pass their first test in the Big XII North last week against Nebraska amid monsoon-like conditions. But Missouri allowed the Cornhuskers to find the end zone four times in the fourth quarter – three of which came in a five-minute span – to lose as a four-point home pup 27-12.
Oklahoma State is coming into this match after picking up a big 36-31 win over the Aggies as a five-point road “chalk.” That victory is big because it came without the Cowboys’ top receiver, Dez Bryant, who is trying to appeal an NCAA banhammer for lying about talking to Deion Sanders. There is no word that the ‘Pokes will get Bryant’s services yet for this weekend, but the smart money is on him not playing again.
Now the Cowboys did win the most recent battle of these schools last year as 14-point road favorites, 28-23. The road team has been the right play in this series as evidenced by a 7-2 SU and ATS record. I believe this trend will continue this weekend.
Final Score: Missouri 33, Oklahoma State 27
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
