Conference races are heating up around college football, as many teams' identities are getting figured out. Several teams that made headlines last week are road underdogs this week. Will these clubs cash, or fall apart after a strong performance?
Louisville at Connecticut (-13) - 12:00 PM EST
The Cardinals pulled off their first win over an FBS opponent last week by upending Southern Miss, 25-23. Louisville, despite a 2-3 record, has played only one conference game so far, falling to Pittsburgh. UConn has covered all five of their games, but come in 3-2 SU. In the Huskies' two losses, they have been outgained in total yards. In UConn's three victories, they have outgained the opposition.
The Huskies blew a late 21-6 lead in last week's 24-21 at Pitt, and VI capper Joe Nelson feels there could be a carryover effect this week. "Connecticut is still a perfect ATS team, but the schedule has been fairly weak and Louisville has been reasonably competitive in most games this year. Connecticut struggled with tackling the big backs for Pittsburgh last week and coming off a tough loss could take a toll here," says Nelson.
UConn sophomore QB Cody Endres has stepped up for the injured Zack Fraser. Endres has thrown three touchdowns in three starts for the Huskies, while completing at least 72% of his passes the last two games.
Adam Froman's numbers haven't compared to the stats Endres is putting up, but the Louisville backup QB did lead the Cardinals to a game-winning field goal in the final minute over Southern Miss.
The Cardinals are 0-6 ATS their last six games against Big East opponents, while going 1-4 ATS the last five meetings against UConn.
Iowa at Wisconsin (-2 ½, 48) - 12:00 PM EST
The Hawkeyes continue to win, after holding off Michigan last week, 30-28. Iowa is unbeaten at 6-0, while Wisconsin is coming off its first loss of the season at Ohio State.
The Badgers outgained the Buckeyes 368-184, while picking up 14 more first downs than Ohio State. Nelson says, "Sharp money appears to be on the Badgers this week and Wisconsin certainly deserved better in last week's loss to Ohio State as they moved the ball very effectively and dominated the time of possession. Iowa is the lone undefeated hope for the Big Ten but there have been a lot of breaks going Iowa's way this season."
Iowa has won at Penn State already this season, but the Hawkeyes did cause four Nittany Lion turnovers in a 21-10 victory. Kirk Ferentz's team has owned this matchup recently, covering six of the last seven meetings, including five SU wins. Nelson believes that Ricky Stanzi and Iowa have the advantage, "The experience edge at QB lies with the Hawkeyes and Iowa has also proven to be a much better fourth quarter team as Wisconsin has given up a lot of late points and could struggle to close out the win. Both teams are probably overrated, but Wisconsin is much less attractive in this match-up now that they are favorites."
Arkansas at Florida (-25) - 3:30 PM EST
It's homecoming in Gainesville, as the top-ranked Gators are fresh off a 13-3 victory at Baton Rouge over LSU. The Razorbacks are making people notice them after their drilling of Auburn last week. Arkansas possesses the best offense to face Florida this season. The Hogs tallied nearly 500 yards in the win over the Tigers, while forcing three turnovers.
Except for a 31-point first quarter at Kentucky, the Gators have scored 46 points in 11 quarters against conference opponents this season. Arkansas' two losses have come against Georgia and Alabama, allowing 87 points in those games. However, the Hogs have eclipsed the 40-point mark in four of five games.
Nelson notes UF's susceptibility to the home upset, "Florida has lost a home game each of the last two years and with some of the recent distractions and the homecoming attention this could be problematic situation. Still, Florida is 11-3 as a home favorite the last three years and the Arkansas defense has some clear liabilities in a match-up like this."
The Razorbacks have no doubt been impressive offensively, as Nelson feels this is a good spot for Arkansas to become relevant again, "Bobby Petrino will relish an opportunity back on the national stage and his offense posted 361 yards against the national champions last year. QB Ryan Mallet has nearly double the yards and touchdowns that Tim Tebow has, so Arkansas is likely to score some points and could be an underdog worth a look."
The Gators have won each of the last seven meetings with the Razorbacks dating back to 1995, while covering each game.
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
