Editor's Note: Are you still waiting to get your picks for this weekend's action on the college gridiron? Don't miss out on cashing in with some expert plays on the Sooners-Longhorns and Trojans-Irish!
Conference titles and possible national championship hopes are on the line in a pair of early games this Saturday. It all starts in the land of steers and fried twinkies (I bet you thought I’d say something else) with the Red River Rivalry. Then we head to South Bend to see the Fighting Irish play host to Southern California.
Oklahoma vs. Texas – 12:00 p.m. EDT, ABC
This game has not only decided who would take home the Big XII South title for seven of the last eight seasons, but it also gives the victor better footing for a national title game berth. Well…it usually gives the winner a better chance. We all remember how last year the Sooners wound up winning the conference championship and got a trip to Miami to get beaten by Florida last year. The Longhorns weren’t too happy about that as they came back and beat Oklahoma 45-35 as seven-point pups. If that doesn’t serve as motivation, then I don’t know what will.
Texas (5-0 straight up, 1-4 against the spread) is currently listed as a three-point “chalk” with a total of 52. Bettors can back the Sooners to win outright for a modest plus-140 return (risk $100 to win $140).
The biggest thing to pay attention to this week is how well Sam Bradford will do for Oklahoma (3-2 SU, 1-3 ATS). Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner came back from a shoulder injury suffered in the season opener against BYU. And you could see an immediate improvement in the Sooners’ offense as they racked up 586 total yards, 389 coming through the air in a 33-7 win over Baylor. Bradford went 27 for 49 on his pass attempts for all 389 yards and a touchdown. What’s scary is that he could have had better number had his receiving corp not dropped 10 passes that were on target.
There is a reason to be optimistic that the Sooners will not drop those passes this Saturday with the word that wide receiver Ryan Broyles may be back in the lineup. Broyles was thought to be out for up to six weeks with a fractured scapula, but that was shortened to just two weeks last week. How big of a boon is this for OU? Broyles missed last week’s game and still is the team’s top receiver with 346 yards and seven scores on 23 receptions.
Mack Brown’s Longhorns have managed to stay perfect, but have not beaten anyone in a convincing fashion in league play so far. The pollsters were taking notice of that last Saturday by dropping Texas down to No. 3 on the AP Poll after a so-so 38-14 win against the Buffaloes as a 34-point home favorite.
A big reason for the uninspiring play has been Texas’ Heisman candidate, Colt McCoy. The senior gunslinger has thrown 10 touchdowns to just six interceptions this season – easily shaping up to be the worst season in Austin. Despite the lackluster numbers, the ‘Horns lead the nation in scoring by averaging 47.2 points per game.
The Longhorns are also extremely advantageous when it comes to taking the ball away from the opposition. We can see that from the fact that they have 14 takeaways this season. That ability helped Texas win last year’s matchup by picking off Bradford twice.
This series as a whole goes to Texas, which is 58-40-5 overall. The Longhorns have dominated the rivalry recently with a 3-1 SU mark. Even more important for our needs is that Texas has covered the last four meetings.
Oklahoma hasn’t fared too well in games as an underdog in games after facing the Bears. That’s evident by a 1-3 SU and 2-2 ATS record. The ‘under’ is a perfect 4-0 in this spot.
Southern California at Notre Dame – 3:30 p.m. EDT, NBC
The word on the street (or at least amongst the droning heads on television) is that Charlie Weis’ job is on the line this weekend. All he has to do is beat a school that Notre Dame (4-1 SU, 1-4 ATS) hasn’t won against since George W. Bush’s first term in office.
If there is a plus side for the Fighting Irish, it’s that this is arguably the best team they’ve had with Weis running the show. Notre Dame ranks 10th in the country with an offense that is averaging 470.0 total YPG. It also doesn’t hurt that the Irish’s starting QB Jimmy Clausen leads the country in passing efficiency with a 179.25 rating.
What could prove problematic for the Golden Domers is their lack of defense. Notre Dame is No. 100 out of 120 Football Bowl Subdivision schools by giving up 403.2 YPG this season. Of course, they’ve played some pretty good competition.
The saving grace for the Irish is this isn’t the same ol’ Trojans they’re used to facing. Gone are Matt Leinart and Mark Sanchez. Now they must face off with Matt Barkley. The true freshman may have won is first road test at Ohio State, but he’s still a little wet behind the ears. Barkley has completed just 58.9 percent of his passes for 958 yards with three scores and two picks. He’s also been sacked five times this season.
Southern Cal doesn’t have to rely on Barkley to win games for them right now because of a stellar defense. The Trojans are sixth in the nation with a stopping unit that surrenders 238.6 YPG this season. To be fair, USC hasn’t played anyone with an offense that is worth a damn.
Most betting shops have installed the Trojans as 10 ½-point road favorites with a total that’s holding steady at 50. You can ride the Fighting Irish to pull off the upset for a downright juicy plus-320 return (risk $100 to win $320).
This series has been decidedly one-sided recently as I mentioned with USC winning seven consecutive fixtures. The Trojans have been an ATM for gamblers in this run as well with a 6-1 ATS mark.
Is it worth taking the low risk-high reward money line play on Notre Dame? Not really. The Irish are a lowly 1-5 SU in home games where they are listed as at least 10-point home pups. However, we should feel confident in taking them to cover as they’re 4-2 ATS. And if you fancy playing totals, then you may want to consider playing the ‘under.’ The Golden Domers have seen the ‘under’ go 4-2 in those six games where they were double-digit home ‘dogs.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
