Editor's Note: Judd Hall has been on fire this month with a 10-5 record in October, including a 3-0 run last Saturday. Don't miss out on your chance to cash in on his latest expert selections. Click to win!
Let’s be honest with ourselves: We all knew we were due to see some upsets in college football. We got those upsets as Ohio State, Virginia Tech and Kansas all took one on the chin last Saturday. Last week wasn’t all about upsets. There were also some big wins that give us some looks at possible trap plays. Let’s look at a few spots where we can profit.
Trojan Let Downs…
Looking back at last week, we shouldn’t be surprised that Southern California was going to beat the Fighting Irish on the road. It’s what the Trojans have excelled at since Pete Carroll took over as head coach in 2001.
I also doubt that it comes as a shock that the Trojans are listed as 20 ½-point home favorites over Oregon State.
While you’d think that the smart money is on USC to cover, the reality is far different. As of Monday afternoon, 63 percent of the money at Sporsbook.com is taking the Beavers to cover the spread.
There are a few reasons to think that Oregon State that would be able to keep it close against the Men of Troy. First on that list is the fact that the Beavers have gone 6-3 against the spread in their last nine head-to-head meetings with USC.
The Trojans have also developed a nasty habit of losing the little games that follow the big ones. They’ve done it once already this season with a loss in Washington after beating Ohio State on the road the week before. And they lost last year’s tilt with the Beavers after dumping the Bucks at the Coliseum.
If you need another reason to fade Southern Cal, consider that they are 1-1 SU and 0-2 ATS when listed as a home “chalk” after playing the Fighting Irish since 1997.
Where do the Buffaloes go?
Dan Hawkins boldly stated that his Buffaloes would put together a 10-win campaign in 2009. Yeah, that’s not happening this season as Colorado is just 2-4 midway through the season. The Buff did get a nice win last week though with Tyler Hansen under center during a 34-30 home triumph over Kansas.
The betting shops aren’t buying into the Buffs’ recent good fortune by making them 4 ½-point road pups against Kansas State.
The Wildcats have started to play a little better in the second installment of the Bill Snyder Era, going 3-1 SU and ATS in their last four contests.
There are some good things to note about this fade spot against Colorado. The first thing is that K-State has covered the spread in the last four meetings of these Big XII North foes. The other thing to remember is that the Buffaloes have won back-to-back games in Hawkins’ tenure just once back in 2007.
It’s in the Cards…
A lot of people wrote Cincinnati off before the start of this year because they had all offense and no defense. The Bearcats proved they have the defense to stay perfect for the season in a 34-17 road win over South Florida. Cincy forced B.J. Daniels into a pair of interceptions and made the Bulls go “three and out” on seven different occasions.
It certainly looks like the sportsbooks have bought into the Bearcats now after installing them as heavy 17-point home favorites against Louisville.
This doesn’t look like a game where you’d think that the Cardinals have a shot at covering. Not many people would give a team that is 1-4 SU and 2-3 ATS a shot at doing something against a potential national title contender.
A couple of things come into play here. Tony Pike’s status for this weekend is in doubt after spraining his left wrist. However, Pike has played through pain on more than one occasion for Cincinnati. Zach Collaros did perform admirably (72 passing yards, 132 rushing yards and two touchdowns) last week. But you have to wonder if he can get up for his career start.
We also have to keep in mind that the Cardinals have gone 5-1 SU and 4-2 ATS in the last six games against Cincy. Also, the Bearcats lost their last contest as a home favorite after winning a game by 17 points on the road.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
