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Every week in college football, we try to find the teams that shined the week before and may be due for a letdown. This week, we'll take a look at a handful of teams that pulled off shocking victories that are now in a 'chalk' position.
Illinois at Purdue (-10) - 12:00 PM EST
These two teams are a combined 3-10 SU and have both been disappointments at the bottom of the Big 10. However, Purdue feels good about itself this week, after their upset of Ohio State last week. Now, the Boilermakers are in a tough spot, laying double-digits against an Illini squad who is 0-4 in conference play.
Purdue is 1-2 ATS this season as a favorite, with SU losses to Northern Illinois and Northwestern. The Boilermakers have scored at least 20 points in each game, but prior to the Ohio State game, Purdue's defense had allowed at least 24 games in each contest.
Illinois' offense has been non-existent this season, tallying 17 points or less in five of six games. The lone game in which the Illini scored more than 17 came against FCS school Illinois State, when Ron Zook's team busted out for 45 points.
VI capper Joe Nelson says this could be a prime letdown spot for Purdue, "The upset for the Boilermakers was overdue as Purdue has posted great yardage this season and played tough against several quality opponents including Oregon and Notre Dame, but had just one win to show for it. Turnovers have been the key factor for Purdue as they have been among the nation's worst, but last week finally caught some breaks on the other side."
Juice Williams has shown very little production for a struggling Illini offense, but Nelson doesn't believe that's reason enough to take the points, "Illinois had its most favorable matchup of the season last week and did not come close to winning and although at some point the 'dog value will catch up, fading a highly productive Purdue offense may not be the best opportunity. The letdown risk is there but there have to be better games on the board to try to catch a 'dog win."
Colorado at Kansas State (-4) - 12:30 PM EST
Interestingly, these two teams have been pretty good pointspread plays over the last month. Colorado and K-State are a combined 5-1 ATS in October, as these two teams hook up at the Little Apple. The Buffaloes, following a disappointing 0-2 start, have covered four straight, including an upset win over Kansas last Saturday.
The Wildcats exploded for 62 points in a 62-14 blowout of Texas A&M last week, one week after allowing 66 points at Texas Tech. Bill Snyder's team still has issues at quarterback, but running back Daniel Thomas has been the bright side on offense for K-State, scoring four touchdowns against A&M.
Kansas State has covered four of the last five in this series, including a 14-13 loss in Boulder last season as three-point underdogs. Nelson says the numbers the Wildcats have put up may be a bit misleading, "Statistically this looks like a mismatch as Kansas State has been the better producer and a much stingier defensive team, but Colorado has played a significantly tougher schedule for the year. The run defense numbers against high quality competition the last two weeks for Colorado (vs. Texas & Kansas) has been impressive and forcing K-State into a one-dimensional pass attack should provide some favorable opportunities."
Nelson points to the Wildcats as a potential big public play due to last week's outburst, "With a short number, many bettors may flock to a home favorite that just scored 62 points, but K-State got to that figure with a lot of help from turnovers and special team scores. Colorado has turned the corner after an awful start to the year and the Buffaloes look like a play-on team for the foreseeable future."
Maryland at Duke (-5) - 1:30 PM EST
This line feels like a February basketball game at Cameron Indoor, as the Blue Devils are laying a couple of baskets against the Terrapins. We're still far away from ACC play in hoops, but this is a rare occurrence for the Devils to be favored. In fact, since 2000, Duke has laid points in conference play just three times, going 1-2 ATS.
Maryland is not in good shape, dropping five of seven games this season. The only quality victory on their ledger was at home against Clemson, winning outright as nearly two-touchdown underdogs. Duke is coming off the bye week, but the Devils did pull off an impressive road victory at N.C. State two weeks ago, 49-28. Thaddeus Lewis may not get the publicity as other quarterbacks in the ACC, but the Duke senior has tossed 12 touchdowns and only two interceptions this season.
These two teams haven't met since 2004, when the Terps blew out the Blue Devils, 55-21. Duke has been a strong 'over' play this season, hitting the 'over' in all five games.
Nelson believes that the Blue Devils may be a bit undervalued, "The oddsmakers have not been willing to make this line as steep as it probably should be based on what has happened on the field this season, so there is some value on the home favorite here. Duke covered in two of three games as home favorites last season and the best performances for Duke have actually come on the road as they have faced two FCS schools and Virginia Tech in three home games this season. Neither defense will shut down the offenses in this match-up but Duke has better personnel to handle a shootout."
Iowa at Michigan State (PK) - 7:30 PM EST
The Hawkeyes are the lone unbeaten team in the Big 10, after rallying past Wisconsin last week. Iowa travels to East Lansing this week to take on a Michigan State squad that has quietly won three straight.
The Spartans have played fantastic defense the last three weeks, outgaining each of their opponents, while allowing an average of 16 ppg in this span. The Hawkeyes are 3-0 SU/ATS on the road, including the upset at Penn State last month, 21-10.
The home team has won each of the last nine meetings, but Iowa has covered six of the last seven matchups. Nelson sees it hard to go against the Hawkeyes at this point, "Iowa has one of the best turnover margins in the nation and this is a team that is playing solid fundamental football and is not beating itself. MSU QB Kirk Cousins has been a more efficient passer than Ricky Stanzi, but Iowa should feature match-up advantages on both lines. These teams have played incredibly close games in the past two years so the dog might be worth a look, but there is no value in going against Iowa right now as most seem to believe they are overrated after they have skated by in a few close games."
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
