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Saturday’s afternoon card gives us a pair of tilts that at one time looked like they would be played with more on the line. Still, these matches give us a chance to see who will keep their hopes alive at winning a conference title.
Oklahoma at Kansas – 3:30 p.m. EDT, ABC
Of all the games on the board, this one had the makings of a possible Big XII title game precursor. That was before the Sooners lost a close one against Texas in the Red River Rivalry and the Jayhawks took a nap in Colorado. Oklahoma’s (3-3 straight up, 1-3-1 against the spread) setback wasn’t that big of a surprise, but Kansas’ loss to the Buffs was a classic case of the look-ahead trap.
Most sportsbooks have posted Oklahoma as a 7 ½-point road favorite with a total of 54 ½. Bettors can take a shot with Kansas to win outright for a nice return of plus-250 (risk $100 to win $250).
If there is any certainty for the Sooners this week, it’s that they’ll be without Sam Bradford from here on out. Last year’s Heisman Trophy winner went down with another shoulder injury in the first quarter of last week’s game against Texas. That means we’re going to get a lot more familiar with Landry Jones under center. Jones had a decent outing in relief of Bradford, completing 24 of his 43 pass attempts for 250 yards and one score. Jones hasn’t helped out gamblers so far, going 1-1 ATS in his two starts.
The loss of Bradford is much more noticeable in the line coming out of the betting shops. Randy Scott, sportsbook manager for betED, relayed that Oklahoma would have been between a 17-point and 20 ½-point road “chalk” had he played.
At least Jones will have Ryan Broyles on the field as a target. Broyles didn’t play the whole game, being substituted by Brandon Caleb last weekend. Yet the Sooners’ top receiver made two catches for 33 yards and the lone aerial touchdown they scored against Texas in a 16-13 setback.
Kansas appeared to have the makings of a great darkhorse for the Big XII North title and maybe even a national title game as they opened the year with five straight wins. Yet we should have seen the fall to Colorado coming in the two games prior for the Jayhawks. The Fighting Manginos failed to cover the spread in wins over Southern Mississippi (-12 ½) and Iowa State (-19).
The Jayhawks will have their top gunslinger on the field this week with Todd Reesing. KU’s signal caller leads the Big XII passing yards per game (330.0) and passing efficiency (152.6). Reesing has passed for over 400 yards in each of his last two starts though. It will be interesting to see if he light up the Sooners like similar numbers since they give up 189.8 YPG this season through the air.
This series has recently been one-sided in terms of bragging rights with Oklahoma going 7-3 SU. However, Kansas has been the better option for gamblers as they’ve gone 6-4 ATS.
The Sooners are 3-0 SU and 2-1 ATS when playing in games as road faves after facing Texas. The ‘under’ has hit in all three of those matches since 2001.
Penn State at Michigan – 3:30 p.m. EDT, ABC
Do you think Joe Paterno was going to let another loss to Iowa to bring his Nittany Lions down for the year? Hell no. Penn State (6-1 SU, 2-4 ATS) has responded to that setback with three straight wins by a combined score of 107-20.
Look no further than the man under center for a reason why Penn State is back on track. Daryll Clark went 12 for 32 for 198 passing yards with one touchdown and three picks against Iowa. Since that loss, Clark has completed 67 percent of his passes for 696 yards with four scores and one interception.
It also doesn’t hurt that JoePa has another stellar defense at his disposal. The Nittany Lions are ranked fifth in the country in total defense by allowing only 238.9 YPG. They’re also holding teams to just a 32 percent success rate on third down conversions this season.
Michigan (5-2 SU, 4-2 ATS) may have played a bully against Delaware State, but it doesn’t hide the fact that they have lost two straight games in Big Ten play. Tate Forcier remains the starter for the Wolverines. Yet there has to be concern that he’s completing only 49 percent of his passes in those two defeats for 317 yards with two touchdowns and two interceptions. And Denard Robinson has been more of a running threat (273) than he is throwing the ball (172).
Most sportsbooks have installed the Nittany Lions as 4 ½-point road favorites with a total of 47 ½. You can wager for Michigan to win the game outright at plus-165 (risk $100 to win $165).
Last year, Penn State was able to beat the Wolverines as a 24 ½-point home “chalk” 46-17, thanks to a second half surge. Michigan still holds a 9-1 SU and 7-3 ATS mark in the last 10 head-to-head meetings.
Despite the series stats, the Nittany Lions would appear to be a solid wager. Michigan is 5-2 SU, but 0-6-1 ATS when playing at home after covering as a road favorite in its last game that was on the board.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com