Close calls were the order of the day last Saturday in college football as three of the teams in the Top 10 had brushes with defeat. Iowa needed a last second touchdown to get by the Spartans. Meanwhile, the Crimson Tide needed a late field goal block to hold for a win against Tennessee at home. Those matches have yielded us some attractive fade possibilities to play this weekend.
Volunteering to lose…
Of all the games this weekend that an underdog had a chance to win outright, Tennessee’s 12-10 road loss to the Crimson Tide was the toughest to swallow. The Vols suffered blocks on their last two field goal attempts, which went a long way to helping Alabama stay perfect. It also gave Lane Kiffin a little more credit for keeping his team in it until the end against top-tier SEC talent.
The close loss did help the Volunteers get love in the betting shops this weekend by listing them as five-point home favorites against South Carolina.
You’re not alone if you think this line is a bit bigger than it should be for the Vols. The Gamecocks have shown themselves to also hold up against the big boys of the conference. South Carolina fell to the Tide 20-6 two weeks back. That score, however, doesn’t really show how close the game was between Steve Spurrier and Nick Saban.
Tennessee hasn’t wowed anyone in its wins in Knoxville this season. I mean, this is a team that fell to UCLA and Auburn – two programs that are middle-of-the-pack, at best.
South Carolina is a beast defensively, ranking 14th in the nation by allowing just 288.9 yards per game this season. They’re also 21st in scoring defense, giving up 17.5 points per game.
Another thing to keep in mind is the road team has covered the spread in nine of the last 12 meetings of these two schools.
Hawkeyes spent…
There are 60 minutes in a game of college football, and Iowa needed 59 minutes, 58 seconds to pick up its 15-13 win on the road against the Spartans. Ricky Stanzi wasn’t all that great, connecting on 11 of his 27 passes for 138 yards. But he picked up 93 of those yards and his lone touchdown in the Hawkeyes’ final two drives of the game.
The sportsbooks aren’t too worried about the Hawkeyes suffering a let down against Indiana by making them 17 ½-point home favorites.
The Hoosiers are also in a spot where they could be a good fade after squandering a 25-point lead to lose at Northwestern as 5 ½-point road pups, 29-28. Ben Chappell started the game hot by completing eight of his first nine passes. After that, however, Chappell connected on eight of his last 18 passes during the tilt.
One thing that I can say about this Indiana side is that it isn’t the abomination that we used to see during the 90s and early 2000s. This club should already bowl eligible this season when you think they could have easily won at Michigan and last week in Evanston. Plus, keep in mind that the Hoosiers have covered two of the last three meetings.
Cyclone of despair…
There have some pretty lean years recently for the Cyclones, but things appear to be looking up under Paul Rhoads. Iowa State’s 9-7 road win against the Cornhuskers is no doubt the first signature win for its new head coach.
That win fell on deaf ears in Las Vegas as the betting shops have made the Aggies seven-point home favorites against Iowa State this Saturday.
It would be easy to say that the Cyclones can claim bowl eligibility against a team that got drilled for 62 points by Kansas State. However, Texas A&M just knocked the Red Raiders around for a 52-30 win as a 21 ½-point road pup.
Before you decide to place your money on Iowa State to cover, just remember that the Aggies are 5-1 straight up and 4-2 against the spread. Don’t be shocked if Texas A&M comes up with another cover in this spot.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
