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We had a couple of upsets in the Top 10 just two weeks ago. And it looked like we might have a couple more right at the top of the rankings last Saturday. Florida found a way to hold off the Bulldogs. Alabama, on the other hand, stayed unbeaten only by the grace of God…and a fat man’s stomach. The College Handicapping Challenge went well for me last week as I posted a 4-1 record. Let’s keep rolling this week with a somewhat “chalky” slate of selections.
Florida State (-7 ½) vs. North Carolina State
I’m sure there were more than a few Florida Sate fans that were dry clicking their revolvers last week after the Tar Heels went up 24-6 in the third quarter. But the Seminoles found some breaks in North Carolina’s coverage to rack up 395 passing yards to win 30-27.
There is reason to think that the ‘Noles are going to get their second straight ACC win this weekend against North Carolina State. The Wolfpack has lost three games in a row to the likes of Wake Forest, Duke and Boston College. But they aren’t too great against the pass, as evidenced by allowing 215.4 yards per game through the air. Look for Christian Ponder to feast on N.C. State’s somewhat shaky secondary as they cover.
Final Score: Florida State 31, North Carolina State 18
Cincinnati (-15 ½) at Syracuse
The Bearcats found out last weekend that they are not in a world of hurt if Tony Pike isn’t under center for the Big East champs. Zach Collaros connected on 15 of his 17 pass attempts for 253 yards and three touchdowns in a 41-10 win over the Cardinals.
Cincinnati will feel even more confident in its backup signal caller this week against the Orange. Syracuse is ranked 115th nationally against the pass (271.3 passing YPG). And they don’t get into the backfield all that often, getting 6.4 tackles for a loss per game this year. Everything points to an easy win for Cincy in the Carrier Dome.
Final Score: Cincinnati 38, Syracuse 14
Mississippi (-3 ½) at Auburn
My only loss in last week’s challenge came from backing the Tigers to cover at LSU. Auburn’s defense has long been a liability for them this season in surrendering 26.9 points per game. Yet the Tigers’ offense has vanished. In the first five games – all wins, mind you- of the Gene Chizik era, Auburn scored no less than 26 points. They have posted scores of 23, 14 and 10 points over the last three weeks. Not something that’ll make you shout “War Eagle,” is it?
Ole Miss has shown itself to not be as good as everyone thought they were going to be this season. But they are coming off of a nice 30-17 triumph over the Razorbacks in the second edition of the Nutt Bowl. Jevan Snead did well last year against Auburn, completing 50 percent of his passes for 140 yards and two scores in a 17-7 win. The line is small enough to take a play on the Rebs…especially when you consider that they are on a 3-0 against the spread run versus Auburn.
Final Score: Mississippi 27, Auburn 10
Mississippi State (+3 ½) at Kentucky
If there is one thing we can say about Dan Mullen’s first year with the Bulldogs it’s that his teams are up to the task of playing the big games. Mississippi State has lost to the Tigers by four points and to the Gators last weekend by 10 points.
Kentucky may be on a two-game winning streak, but don’t make the mistake these are quality wins. One was at Auburn, who we’ve seen fall apart recently. The other was against Louisiana-Monroe, those bullies from the Sun Belt Conference. Plus they will be using more of the wildcat formation this week with Randall Cobb since quarterback Mike Hartline was lost for the season with a knee injury.
The Bulldogs should have no problems playing against that offense this week. And the fact that the last three road teams in this series have walked away winners makes Mississippi State a good play.
Final Score: Mississippi State 26, Kentucky 17
South Carolina (+5 ½) at Tennessee
The Gamecocks haven’t been getting a lot of publicity right now, but that is not a bad team at all. They’ve won five of their last six games, and the lone loss to Alabama was a lot closer than the 20-6 score would lead you to believe.
Tennessee had a perfect chance to end the Crimson Tide’s dream season last weekend, but failed to stop Terrence Cody from blocking its last two field goal attempts. That setback gives us a perfect trap game to fade the Volunteers as I’ve previously mentioned. Plus, the Vols are 4-2 SU and 4-2 ATS when playing as a home favorite coming off of an ATS win as road pups.
Final Score: South Carolina 23, Tennessee 17
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
