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North Carolina (4-3, 0-3 ACC) at #14 Virginia Tech (5-2, 3-1 ACC)
7:45 PM ESPN
Lane Stadium (Natural Grass)
Sports.com Line: Virginia Tech -16.5, O/U 43.5
Just a week after witnessing North Carolina host Florida State, we not only stay in ACC country but remain with the Tar Heels as they travel north to Lane Stadium to take on the Hokies of Virginia Tech.
There was a time during the run up to this season that North Carolina was a trendy pick as the dark horse to win the conference and land a BCS bowl invite. That outlook is undoubtedly what led to UNC landing a role on back-to-back weeks of Thursday night football this season. Unfortunately, the performance from UNC thus far has the programming executives at ESPN wishing they hadn’t listened to those experts.
ESPN can at least take solace in the fact that the Tar Heels and the Seminoles produced a pretty interesting game last week. Whether that same type of drama can be replicated this week remains to be seen but with a 16.5 point spread, the prognosis doesn’t look good.
The main reason for UNC’s struggles and thus this large number is the fact that their offense has been downright pitiful. How pitiful? Consider that heading into last Thursday night against Florida State, the Tar Heels had the 117th ranked total offense in the land. You probably didn’t know there were that many teams in Division 1-A and there barely are with the exact total being 120.
Thanks to UNC “exploding” for 27 points against FSU, the Heels have now moved all the way up to 114th in the nation in total offense. In all seriousness, there were some positives for Carolina on offense last week, the most obvious being that their rushing offense was able to get on track for 238 yards.
Unfortunately for Tar Heel fans, the rushing end of their offense was the only one working as Quarterback T.J. Yates completed just 12-of-25 attempts for 64 yards in the 30-27 loss to Florida State. In Yates’ defense, he is dealing with a entirely new corp of receivers after losing Hakeem Nicks, Brandon Tate and Brooks Foster from the 2008 team. So far this year Yates has had to lean heavily on junior Greg Little, who had only 24 career catches coming into the season but has easily eclipsed that mark already with 33 receptions in seven games this year.
With the offense sputtering, Carolina relies on their defense to keep them in games and most times, win the game for them. That strategy worked fine until UNC ran into FSU QB Christian Ponder last week who lit up the Tar Heels defense for 395 passing yards. Still, the Tar Heels lead the ACC in total defense, giving up only 266 yards a game, which is good for seventh in the nation.
And the good news this week is that Virginia Tech doesn’t have the offensive prowess of Florida State – especially in the passing department. Chances are the Hokies will try to do what they do best which means, as far as offense goes, a steady diet of RB Ryan Williams.
Williams has been an incredible story for coach Frank Beamer considering he just landed the starting job weeks before the season began due to a knee injury to Darren Evans. So far in 2009, Williams has five 100-yard rushing games, is averaging almost 120 yards per game and has scored 11 touchdowns. The freshman will have his work cut out for him this week against a Carolina D-line anchored by a pair of huge tackles in Marvin Austin (6-3, 305) and Cam Thomas (6-4, 325).
Williams will of course get support from QB Tyrod Taylor but this is an offense that definitely prefers to keep things on the ground. Don’t be surprised to also see TE Greg Boone line up at QB and run some plays out of the "Wild Turkey” formation which is Tech offensive coordinator Bryan Stinespring’s version of the trendy “Wildcat” look.
The Hokies have been on a little bit of a roll on offense lately, averaging 34 points over their last four games. Like Carolina however, Tech leans on their defense to keep them in games. At 31st in the nation in total defense, this unit isn’t the dominant one fans have come to expect from defensive coordinator Bud Foster but with playmakers such as DE Jason Worilds and LB Cody Grimm, they are plenty capable of shutting down an offense – especially one ranked 114th in the nation in total offense.
With a conference loss already on the books (at Georgia Tech), the Hokies know they must be perfect from here on out if they are to have any chance to win a third straight Atlantic Coast Conference title.
These teams hooked up for a classic last season when Virginia Tech clipped the Tar Heels 20-17 in Chapel Hill. On the season, North Carolina is 1-4 against the spread while Virginia Tech is 3-4 ATS.
