Following some of last week's developments around college football, it's time to find out which teams will keep up its winning ways, and how bettors will respond to perception. This week, we'll take a look at a pair of ACC battles, two inconsistent Big 12 teams, and if Idaho can rebound from a pounding at Nevada.
N.C. State at Florida State (-9, 64) - 12:00 PM EST
The Seminoles try to salvage their season after rallying at North Carolina last Thursday, as FSU picked up its first ACC win of the season. The Wolfpack started the season at 3-1, but Tom O'Brien's team has dropped three straight, while allowing 101 points the last two losses.
FSU has struggled to cover the line in this series, as N.C. State has cashed in seven of the last eight meetings with the lone non-cover resulting in a push. The Noles are 2-0 the last two meetings, including a 26-17 victory in Raleigh last season. Christian Ponder's numbers are some of the best in the nation, as the FSU quarterback is completing 70% of his passes, while tossing 12 touchdowns and just one interception.
The Wolfpack are able to score points, but their defense has let them down recently, allowing 30 at Wake Forest, 49 to Duke, and 52 at Boston College. Russell Wilson owns solid numbers with 16 touchdowns and four interceptions, but the Wolfpack QB has failed to throw for more than 275 yards in any of the last three games.
VI capper Joe Nelson says the Wolfpack's skid was not anticipated, "N.C. State was expected to be a potential contender in the ACC, but after a promising start including a win over Pittsburgh that now looks fairly impressive, the Wolfpack have stumbled in what was supposed to be the softer part of the conference schedule. N.C. State has had two weeks to get things back in order and the Wolfpack have been a much better defensive team than Florida State, although the numbers are a bit skewed with two FCS wins."
On the flip side, Ponder has carried the FSU offense, but there are still problems elsewhere on this team, according to Nelson, "The Seminoles are giving up a lot of big plays on defense and there has not been a consistent running game. The underdog has had great success in this series and N.C. State is generally that team. With the extra preparation time and catching FSU off a huge win that they may not have deserved, the Wolfpack can hang around and have a shot at a minor upset."
Duke at Virginia (-7, 47 ½) - 3:30 PM EST
Amazingly, two of the more profitable teams in the ACC were laughed at following losses to FCS schools in each team's season opener. The Blue Devils and Cavaliers are a combined 7-3-1 ATS this season, while UVA has covered four of its last five.
Duke continues to improve after being a conference doormat for years, coming off consecutive conference wins over N.C. State and Maryland. The Blue Devils have been a solid 'over' play as well, sailing 'over' the total in five of six games, before finishing 'under' against the Terrapins.
The Wahoos had played terrific defense during a three-game winning streak, allowing 19 combined points to North Carolina, Indiana, and Maryland. Al Groh's defense was lit up last week, giving up 34 points in a home loss to Georgia Tech.
Nelson feels this game can go either way between these surprising squads, "Duke has averaged over 110 more yards per game on offense with a strong passing attack and defensively the Blue Devils have not been a complete pushover, actually featuring much better numbers against the run than Virginia. Although Duke has the better record, Virginia should be the superior team and the home team is 7-2 ATS in the past nine meetings. Duke has been a decent ATS team away from home in recent years and this is a team with much more momentum than a typical Blue Devils squad which makes this game a very tough call."
Iowa State at Texas A&M (-7, 60) - 3:30 PM EST
The Cyclones and Aggies have each been tough to figure out this season, but they are turning into halfway-relevant teams inside the Big 12. Iowa State had a great shot to upset Kansas, but fell in the final minute when the Cyclones couldn't convert a fourth down in Jayhawks' territory. ISU rebounded with consecutive wins over Baylor and Nebraska, allowing 17 points the last two games.
The Aggies started the season on fire, winning three straight, but then dropped three in a row. Texas A&M rebounded with a blowout victory at Texas Tech, 52-30, covering easily as 22-point road 'dogs. Mike Sherman's team owns one of the top offenses in the country, averaging nearly 36 ppg and 489 yards a contest.
Both these teams have shocked many inside the Big 12, but staying with the underdog may be the way to go, according to Nelson, "While Texas A&M has been the more impressive offensive team, the Cyclones have posted very impressive defensive numbers. The pressure will be greater on A&M in this match-up as Iowa State is playing with house money at this point, as they have exceeded all expectations already in Coach Paul Rhoads' first season. Last season, Iowa State posted 574 yards against A&M, but lost and this year the Cyclones can keep the run of strong play going as an underdog again."
Louisiana Tech at Idaho (-3, 57) - 5:00 PM EST
The Vandals have been one of the pointspread "darlings" of the season so far, covering seven of eight games this season. Idaho's seven-game ATS run came to a screeching halt last week in an embarrassing 70-45 defeat at Nevada. Louisiana Tech, meanwhile, is 3-0 SU/ATS at home and 0-4 SU/ATS on the road.
Idaho owns a solid offense, but also possesses a shoddy defense (evidenced by the 70-spot thrown up by Nevada). The Vandals allowed 484 rushing yards on 53 carries to the Wolfpack last week, which computes into nearly 10 yards/carry. Prior to this loss, Idaho's rushing defense had given up 444 combined yards in their previous five contests.
The Bulldogs have won three of the last four meetings with the Vandals, including a 46-14 blowout last October in Rustin. Louisiana Tech has scored over 14 points just once in four road contests, putting up 21 in a loss last week at Utah State.
Nelson feels the Vandals have proven more this season than the Bulldogs, "Louisiana Tech has been the better defensive team, but the schedule has been very weak and the Bulldogs are not as strong on offense as last year's bowl team. Idaho has covered in six straight home games and facing another road game will be a difficult challenge for Louisiana Tech, a team that is 14-37-1 ATS on the road since '02. Look for the Vandals to bounce back as last week's loss was a misleading final against a very tough Nevada team."
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
