Editor's Note: Judd Hall has gone 12-3 over his last five Saturdays on the college gridiron. Are you ready to cash in on his latest expert selections? Click to win!
We saw a few upsets of home teams this past weekend in college football. Iowa lost its quarterback and its undefeated season against the Wildcats in Iowa City. Notre Dame lost its second straight home decision to the Midshipmen for the first time since JFK was alive. And Penn State got embarrassed at home for the second time this year.
Two of those teams are giving us a prime chance to cash in for what is certainly a let down spot this Saturday.
Trapping a Wildcat…
If I were to have told you before the season started that Kansas State would control its own destiny to win the Big XII North, you’d look at me like I had lobsters crawling out of my ears. But the Wildcats are in that position right now after dropping Kansas 17-10 in the latest edition of the Sunflower Showdown.
Despite being in the driver’s seat, the Wildcats are still in a pick ‘em or one-point home favorites against Missouri.
This matchup is a perfect trap spot for us to play upon since K-State is not only coming off of a big win against the Jayhawks, but they also have to face the Cornhuskers in Lincoln next week.
Kansas State has done well in home games following up a battle with the Jayhawks, as evidenced by a 5-2 straight up and against the spread record. Yet Mizzou has won the last three meetings, covering in two of those meetings.
Not so Happy Valley…
The big showdown in the Big Ten turned out to be nothing more than an afterthought as Penn State got manhandled 24-7 by the Buckeyes as a 5 ½-point home favorite. The Nittany Lions had no rhythm against Ohio State’s defense, racking up just 201 yards offensively. And they only converted just four of their 16 third-downs.
Betting shops all over the world are expecting the Nittany Lions to have their way with Indian this week as they’re 26 ½-point home faves.
What could prove problematic is this isn’t the usual haphazard Hoosiers of years gone by. No, this Indiana team should actually be bowl eligible by now if they hadn’t coughed up leads against the Wolverines and Wildcats. And we shouldn’t forget that they played well enough to beat the Badgers last week as well. Bettors have already known that the Hoosiers are a good bet as they’ve gone 6-3 ATS this year.
Indiana has covered its last two games against the Nittany Lions. And if that doesn’t make you think that Penn State is in a spot not to cover the spread, then consider that they are 3-1 SU and 1-3 ATS in home games following a tilt with the Buckeyes.
No luck for the Irish…
There is reason to think that Charlie Weis’ time with Notre Dame is numbered after falling to the Middies for the second time in three years. The Fighting Irish had every chance to beat Navy. Yet you have to think a team deserves to lose when they miss two field goals, fumble the ball away twice, get picked off once and allowing a safety late in the game.
The Irish will try to get back on the right side of the ledger as seven-point road underdogs to Pittsburgh.
The Panthers have been one of the better teams in the country this season, ranking eighth in the Associated Press poll. And they are in the thick of the Big East title race against unbeaten Bearcats. Pitt ranks first in its conference and 26th nationally with 187.0 rushing yards per game. That’s going to come into play considering that Notre Dame allowed 348 yards on the ground last weekend.
Pittsburgh has gone 2-1 SU and ATS in its last three head-to-head skirmishes with the Fighting Irish, which helps lend to them being a solid wager. Something else to consider is that the Golden Domers are 0-4 SU and 1-3 ATS when playing on the road after a home defeat since 2007.
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
