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It turns out that the surprises we expected to happen on Halloween ended up coming in a week later. Iowa saw its season go down when Ricky Stanzi was sacked in the endzone last Saturday. Oregon came out flat against the Cardinal and Penn State helped me by losing, thus avoiding having to wear a Snuggie in the office.
The College Handicapping Challenge was a spot of pride for myself this past week. I not only went 5-0, but I am also up on the leaderboard for last week. It isn’t like I’m eligible for the prizes, but it is nice to know that the sun shines on a dog’s behind every once in a while.
Houston (-5 ½) at Central Florida
The Cougars have had to do a little tap dancing over the past two weeks to stay in the Conference USA West race. Had it not been for Case Keenum, Houston most likely would be nothing but an afterthought. Keenum has completed 74 percent of his passes for 1,081 yards and eight touchdowns over the last two contests.
Keenum is now getting to take a swipe at a defense that is giving up 267.6 yards per game through the air, which is good enough to rank 114th out of 120 FBS schools.
To Central Florida’s credit, they have been a great team to back this year at the betting shops. George O’Leary’s team is 6-2 against the spread for the year, but has failed to cover the number in their last two games as home underdogs.
I fully expect Houston to have its way against the Golden Knights’ defense.
Final Score: Houston 42, Central Florida 17
Boston College (-4 ½) at Virginia
The Eagles had to feel pretty lousy after losing a great chance at a win against Notre Dame. Luckily Boston College got to take down the Chippewas on Halloween to build up its confidence. BC will have its chest out far this week in Charlottesville.
Virginia has lost its last three games by an average score of 38-14 and that is actually being kind since they were never in those matches. And the Cavaliers have converted just eight of their last 39 third downs in that three-match span.
So does that mean Boston College will kill ‘em off quickly? Well, that information and the fact that the Eagles have won and covered the last two games leads me to believe they’ll do it again.
Final Score: Boston College 24, Virginia 10
Kansas (+3 ½) vs. Nebraska
I do believe that we have ourselves a legitimate trap spot for our friends from Lincoln.
The Cornhuskers took advantage of five interceptions to beat Oklahoma 10-3 last week. It was Nebraska’s first win over the Sooners since 2001, which is certainly something to celebrate. Even better is that the ‘Huskers are in a prime spot to win the Big XII North.
While Nebraska does have that shot at winning its division, it won’t have that chance until next week when they face the Wildcats. Both the Cornhuskers and K-State are a game apart in the standings and face one another next weekend.
Don’t be frightened by the fact that the Jayhawks have lost four straight games to effectively ruin any great chances they had at winning their division. This is still an offense that averages 431.6 YPG on the attack.
We’re going to go all trendy and stuff on this play with KU as the ‘Huskers are 2-2 SU, but just 1-3 ATS in road games after facing off with Oklahoma.
Final Score: Kansas 30, Nebraska 18
Georgia (-4 ½) vs. Auburn
The Bulldogs have lost three of their last four games against FBS opponents, but they found a way to get out of their funk with a 38-0 win over Tennessee Tech last weekend. The only better for Georgia is getting to take on Auburn’s defense.
I remember a time when people thought that Gene Chizik was doing a great job with the Tigers earlier in the year. Auburn has been lit up for at least 30 points in five of its last eight games this year.
Something else to keep in mind is that Georgia has won five of the last seven head-to-head meetings SU. Bettors have cashed in knowing that Uga’s buddies have covered the number in four of those games.
Look for the Tigers’ defense to be an issue as Joe Cox tosses the ball early and often.
Final Score: Georgia 34, Auburn 14
North Carolina (+3 ½) vs. Miami
The Hurricanes made sure that Virginia suffered from deep hurting in a 52-17 thrashing at Landshark Stadium. Miami will get to exact some revenge here against the Tar Heels.
North Carolina got a lot of undue public favoritism with its win over the Hokies on national television. Then they got lucky to cover against the Blue Devils as a 10-point home “chalk.”
Where the Heels get my respect is that they’ve had some good luck against Miami over the years as they are 3-2 SU and 4-0-1 ATS in the last five fixtures.
Add in the fact that the ‘Canes are 5-4 SU and 3-6 ATS as road faves over the last three seasons and you have a good reason to play on UNC.
Final Score: North Carolina 24, Miami 22
You can reach Judd Hall via e-mail at judd@vegasinsider.com
