Only three weeks remain in the college football regular season and there are teams that are turning into public darlings over the last few weeks. This week, we'll take a look at four games, including a battle of suddenly hot Big 10 teams.
Northwestern at Illinois (-4 ½, 48) - 12:00 PM EST
The Wildcats knocked off the last unbeaten inside the Big 10 by shocking Iowa this past Saturday, 17-10, as two-touchdown underdogs. Northwestern has won four of its last six, but the 'Cats have scored 17 points or less in four of the last five. The Illini, meanwhile, have caught fire, as Ron Zook's club is coming off consecutive wins over Michigan and Minnesota.
Illinois is 3-0 ATS the last three games, but the Illini was listed as underdogs in each contest. As a favorite, Illinois is 2-8 ATS the last two seasons, including an 0-3 ATS mark as 'chalk' in 2009.
Northwestern blew out Illinois to wrap up last season, 27-10, as three-point home underdogs, as the Wildcats are 8-3 ATS since 2008 when receiving points.
VI capper Joe Nelson says the Wildcats are worth a look, but it may be too late to back them. "Northwestern remains a viable underdog, but coming off a big win there is little value on the Wildcats and the letdown potential is serious. Northwestern has six wins and another victory would certainly help the bowl cause, so this is a team that will still be playing hard, but Illinois should have the superior squad and now with a little late season momentum the Illini are out to prove something in their final Big Ten contest," Nelson explains.
Missouri at Kansas State (PK, 51) - 12:30 PM EST
The Wildcats weren't expected to do much when Bill Snyder was brought back to Manhattan. Following a slow start, K-State is now in the running to play for the Big 12 championship. The Wildcats have taken four of their last six, while going 6-1 ATS the last seven games.
Mizzou started fast out of the gate, going 4-0. However, Gary Pinkel's club has dropped four of five, with the lone victory coming at Colorado on Halloween. Three of those losses came by fifteen points or more, with the worst defeat coming by the smallest margin - an eight-point home setback to Baylor last week.
Nelson says the running game will be key for K-State, "The Wildcats are rushing for 190 yards per game this season, but the real strength of the team has been on the other side as few teams have run with success against K-State. Missouri does not run the ball well and should have a major deficit on the ground which will make it tough to win on the road."
Stanford at USC (-10 ½, 56 ½) - 3:30 PM EST
The Cardinal pulled off one of the great upsets ever back in 2007, winning outright as 39-point road underdogs at USC, 24-23. Stanford returns to the Coliseum on Saturday, but this Cardinal squad is much improved from that team two years ago. USC, meanwhile, still has an outside shot of winning the Pac-10, but the Trojans need to win out plus receive some major help.
USC has covered only two of nine games this season, while getting outgained in each of the last three contests. Stanford has covered four of the last five meetings with USC, including last season's 45-23 home loss as 24-point underdogs.
Nelson feels that USC's efforts this season may be overrated at best, "The Trojans have looked average in recent weeks and the best wins on the year against Ohio State and Cal, are not as impressive as they once were."
However, Jim Harbaugh's team has struggled away from Palo Alto and Nelson says that this one is still tough to call, "Stanford has been very tough at home but the Cardinal is 1-3 S/U and ATS in road games. USC's uninspired recent efforts have been partially due to brutal scheduling as four of the last five games came on the road. Catching Stanford off a big win and with a window of opportunity still there in the conference, USC should finish strong with the final three at home and a still dominant defense."
Miami (FL) (-3, 43) at North Carolina - 3:30 PM EST
Butch Davis rebuilt the Miami program in the late 90's and turned the Canes into a powerhouse in the early part of this decade. UM has taken a couple steps back since the departure of Davis, but the Canes are back into national relevance this season thanks to a 7-2 record. However, the Canes are 0-2 against Davis since he arrived in Chapel Hill.
UNC is coming off solid consecutive wins over Virginia Tech and Duke to slowly salvage its season. In actuality, the Tar Heels should have won three straight, if UNC didn't give away a 24-6 lead against Florida State. The Heels do own one of the better defenses in college football, allowing 250 yards a game and just 15 ppg.
Miami's offense has been consistent all season long, as the 'over' has hit in each of the last three games, while UNC has drilled the 'under' in four of five conference games.
Nelson says that the Heels' defense is finally a good test for this Hurricanes' offense, "Coach Randy Shannon has never defeated UNC as the Heels won close games the past two years and the Hurricane offense has been much less impressive on the road. North Carolina has caught some breaks the last two weeks, but Miami has not proven to be balanced enough on offense to beat an exceptional defense."
You can reach Kevin Rogers via e-mail at rogers@vegasinsider.com
