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Selecting a driver to win this week’s NASCAR Nextel Cup race at Darlington Raceway will be a difficult task and is right in line with track’s famed label of being “Too tough to tame”. This week, more so than other weeks, the 3 practice sessions and qualifying will be pivotal in narrowing down who might win. For the last ten Darlington races in a five year span, there have been eight different winners. In each of those cases, the practice sessions gave indications of who would do well.
In 3 of the last 4 races at Darlington, there have been some pretty good payouts. Sterling Marlin, Ricky Craven, and Terry Labonte aren’t exactly the upper echelon of drivers on a weekly basis, but in their Darlington wins, their crews got their cars dialed in for that particular weekend and carried it into the race with great performances.
Going back a few years, the track was relatively easy to tame for a few drivers. The late Dale Earnhardt had accumulated 9 wins in 44 starts and then Jeff Gordon came along and went on a furious never before seen domination of the track winning four straight Southern 500’s, one of the most prestigious races in NASCAR. No one has ever won more than two straight Southern 500’s. Gordon in all has 6 Darlington wins, the last coming in 2002.
The South Boston, VA duo of Jeff and Ward Burton combined to win 4 of 6 Darlington races during a 3 year span from ’99 to ’01. Both are in tough spots at the moment. Ward is driving a very non-competitive car and Jeff is still looking for a season long sponsor. “Hot Wheels” signed on to sponsor Jeff’s No 99 Roush Racing Ford for Darlington only. After Darlington, the car will likely be all white with “Advertise Here” painted on it.
Robert Yates racing has done well at Darlington in the past, but his star driver has struggled in the last 3 races there. Dale Jarrett(18/1) is a 3 time winner of the spring race, the last coming in ’01. Teammate Elliott Sadler(18/1) has finished in the top 10 in each of the last 3 races with his best run a 2nd while driving a Wood Brothers Ford. Sadler could be a driver to keep an eye on because of the improved Yates engine program and his recent Darlington successes. Last season in this race he was on the pole and started 4th in the fall.
Since Gordon last won at Darlington, he’s finished 9th, 33rd, and 32nd. Those aren’t very good numbers considering he’s finished half of his 22 Darlington starts in the top 5. However, Gordon’s teammates have stepped up in that 3 race span. Terry Labonte(30/1) won last years Southern 500, a 23 year gap from the last time he won at Darlington. Jimmie Johnson(10/1) has finished in the top 6 in two of those 3 races and rookie Brian Vickers(28/1) won the fall Busch race last year.
Roush Racing might be a team that would vouch for Darlington being a track “Too tough to tame”. Roush has only 3 Cup wins lifetime there for his multi-car team. Compare that to their 5 wins in 7 Vegas Cup races and it multiplies when considering Roush has had so many more opportunities at Darlington to win considering there are two races a year there. Jeff Burton has two wins there and Mark Martin(18/1) has the other. Last season in this race, Kurt Busch(10/1) finished 2nd in the closest finish in NASCAR history when he traded paint with Ricky Craven(28/1) for the final few laps. That has been Roush’s best performance over the last two seasons there. Over a 4 races span among 5 cars, they only have one other top 5 finish and that was Martin’s 4th last year. Obviously Matt Kenseth(11/1) is always one to watch, but Greg Biffle(30/1) may present some good value in both odds to win and match-ups. He was steady last year with a 12th and 10th and has the moxie to battle the tough track.
The Ganassi Dodges have had some recent Darlington success. Sterling Marlin(20/1) won this race two years ago and Jamie McMurray(20/1) finished 4th in the 500 last year. There is also the new kid in the mix now for Ganassi. Casey Mears(30/1) has been very impressive thus far into the season.
The team to keep a close eye on this week in all practice sessions is Evernham’s Dodges. Kasey Kahne(8/1) inherits a car for this race that has finished in the top 10 at Darlington for the last 5 races. There was no pre-season testing at Darlington this year due to the installation of the new “soft walls”, but you can bet Kahne will have a car that will be tough to beat. The question with Kahne this week is if he can handle a Cup car on one of the most difficult tracks. Based on his Busch series performance, he should be just fine. Last season he was 6th & 8th in his two Busch stops.
Kahne’s teammate, Jeremy Mayfield(18/1), has all the Darlington skills needed as a driver, it’s just a matter of what the team can do for him in the set-up. Mayfield had five top 5 Darlington finishes while driving for Roger Penske and last year had his best run there for Evernham with a 6th.
Kevin Harvick(12/1) has two 2nd place finishes in his last 3 Darlington races. Over the last 4 races there, the Gibbs duo of Tony Stewart(11/1) and Bobby Labonte(15/1) are no where to be seen in the top 5. Their best finish over the 4 race span was a 7th by Labonte last year.
Others to watch: Ricky Craven(28/1) won this race and finished 8th in the fall last year. He’s had similar performances at Rockingham and Darlington over the last few years and based on his run at “The Rock”, Craven doesn’t look very strong. Ryan Newman(10/1) will be fast in qualifying. Last year he was mediocre during the race itself, but was very strong with two top 5 finishes in his rookie year. Newman’s teammate, Rusty Wallace(15/1) has never won at Darlington and only has 11 top 5’s in his 40 starts.
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The Busch series will also be traveling to darlington this week after taking the Atlanta week off. Last season in the fall Darlington race, the future of Hendrick Motorsports was on display and rolled to an impressive 1-2 finish. Brian Vickers, who won that race, is now in the big leagues attempting to make a name for himself there. Kyle Busch, who finished 2nd, is now driving the No. 5 car that Vickers won in. So far into the season, Busch has been a bit tentative. He had all kinds of trouble early in the Rockingham race a few weeks ago and managed to salvage a decent day out of it with some tenacious driving. I think Darlington suits his style and he should do very well in the race.
An important note for this race: The No. 9 Roush racing Ford that Jeff Burton has piloted to several Busch victories at Darlington will not run this week. The car’s next race will be at Texas.
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