DFS Best Bets - Week 8
October 24, 2017
By Austin Chen
Week 8 Contrarion Picks
Week 7 saw 7 teams not score an offensive touchdown. Week 8 is a big bye week with 7 teams on byes. This changes the landscape of the daily fantasy world. There are fewer top options than normal at all skill positions. One way to differentiate your GPP teams this week is to play the Zach Ertz and Rob Gronkowski. They are both priced over $7,000 on DraftKings which is $2,100 more than the 3rd highest priced tight ends.
Before I break down the players to play in Week 8, everyone should go check out the RotoQL NFL Lineup Optimizer as it is a must when building your daily fantasy football teams.
Carson Wentz (DK: $7,200, FD: $7,900)
Carson Wentz has thrown for 11 touchdowns in the past 3 weeks. He now gets to play the San Francisco 49ers who gave up 3 touchdowns to Dak Prescott last week. The Eagles rushing attack hasn't been anything worth writing about so I expect them to be pass happy again. Pro Football Focus has Carson Wentz projected as the 2nd highest quarterback in week 8.
Russell Wilson (Draftkings: $6,500, FanDuel: $7,900)
Much like the Seattle defense, I think Russell Wilson will fall thru the cracks this week. He is priced below Carson Wentz and Dak Prescott who will both be popular. Wilson is also priced right above Philip Rivers and Kirk Cousins which will attract the DFS players looking to save money at the quarterback position. The Seahawks are projected 25.5 points and the rushing attack has been nonexistent so it's safe to say the points should be scored via the air. After starting the season slow, Wilson now has 10 touchdowns in his last 4 games.
Other QBs To Consider: Dak Prescott, Cam Newton, Andy Dalton
Devonta Freeman (DK: $7,200, FD: $8,000)
The New York Jets have given up the 5th most rushing yards this season with an average of over 126 yards a game. The Falcons open as a 7 point favorite over the Jets which is a positive game script for the running attack. Devonta Freeman is always one of my favorite players to play in large GPP tournaments because people have a hard time justifying his salary as he is the 4th highest priced running back on Fanduel and DraftKings. There are a lot of people who have the thought that Tevin Coleman can produce a similar outcome as Freeman at a cheaper price. Devonta Freeman is averaging 18 touches a game and if the Falcons stop running jet sweeps at the half yard line he should have chances for a score this weekend.
Joe Mixon (DK: $4,700, FD: $5,900)
I am buying Joe Mixon this week as he is very cheap and there are not many playable running backs below $5000 on DraftKings. Mixon was great last week but he was derailed by terrible coaching. Marvin Lewis gave him zero carries in the second half even though Mixon ran for 48 yards on 7 carries. The matchup is great versus the Colts and the Bengals are double digit favorites. Mixon was averaging 16 carries a game since Bill Lazor took over as the new offensive coordinator so hopefully last week was a one week mirage. I am expecting Joe Mixon to bounce back this week.
Other RBs To Consider: Melvin Gordon, Jordan Howard, Chris Thompson
Alshon Jeffery (DK: $6,700, FD: $6,600)
Alshon Jeffery has been a big disappointment this season but in daily fantasy football we only need to worry about the current week. Jeffrey has a great matchup and this could be the breakout game that we have all been waiting for. Alshon Jeffery still led the Eagles in targets Monday night and averages 7.7 targets a game this season. The 49ers have been giving up chunks of yards and are 27th in pass yards given up so far this season. None of the 49ers top 3 corners have a Pro Football Focus grade above 48. Stacking Alshon Jeffery with Carson Wentz makes for a great GPP tournament play.
Josh Doctson (DK: $3,900, FD: $5,200)
Josh Doctson is now playing 84% of the snaps after a injury riddled start to the season. Even though Doctson did not breakout last week, Redskins head coach Jay Gruden said they drafted him to be the #1 guy. This vote of confidence should mean that he has overtaken Terrelle Pryor in 2 wide sets. The salary is too cheap on both daily fantasy websites considering his expected snap count. The Cowboys are a great matchup where he has a size advantage over the smaller cornerbacks.
Other WRs To Consider: Doug Baldwin, Devin Funchess, Marquise Goodwin
Hunter Henry (DK: $4,800, FD: $5,500)
Hunter Henry’s usage has increased significantly since Antonio Gates finally broke the tight end touchdown record. Henry has caught 9 catches for 163 yards in the past 2 weeks and now has 3 consecutive double digit fantasy games. Next up for Henry is a very beatable New England defense. Hunter Henry has the matchup and usage to match Rob Gronkowski or Zach Ertz this week at a much cheaper price.
Jared Cook (DK: $3,900, FD: $5,600)
As Derek Carr goes so does Jared Cook. Carr consistently peppers Jared Cook with 6 or more targets a week. The Buffalo Bills are giving up 14.9 pts to tight ends which is 6th worst this season. Instead of looking to chase Amari Cooper’s big game, I will be playing Jared Cook.
Other TEs To Consider: Jordan Reed, Cameron Brate, Tyler Kroft
Seattle Seahawks (DK: $3,200, FD: $5,100)
New Orleans is going to be a popular play this week and for good reasons but it may lead to the Seahawks getting over looked. I like the Seahawks defense at home versus a rookie quarterback. Deshaun Watson has been great but also extremely efficient as far as touchdowns go so I am expecting some regression. The Seahawks defense average 14 DraftKings fantasy points at home which is double their road averages.
New York Jets (DK: $2,200, FD: $4,300)
The Atlanta Falcons offense has been underwhelming this season. Some of it has to do with regression but the play calling has also been very bad. If you need to fit that last skill player in and need to save some money, the New York Jets defense can help you out. Matt Ryan has thrown for over than 250 yards only once in his last 5 games and has 6 interceptions during that span. In a week where DFS sites are almost forcing you to pay up for defenses, paying down could be a way to differentiate yourself in GPPs. The Bears and Chargers were the top defenses last week and both were under $2,500.
Other Defenses To Consider: Cincinnati Bengals, Philadelphia Eagles, New Orleans Saints
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