DFS Best Bets - Week 11
November 15, 2017
By Austin Chen
Let us do a quick review of the picks from last week. The top 3 performers were Case Keenum, Adam Thielen, and Alvin Kamara. Meanwhile Matt Forte/Bilal Powell, Tyler Kroft, and Corey Davis were the duds of the week. Anyone else happy that this is the last week of byes? All the injuries to star players have made this season one to remember.
Anyways, everyone should go check out the RotoQL NFL Lineup Optimizer as it is a must when building your daily fantasy football teams. The week 11 best bets are coming right up!
Kirk Cousins (DraftKings:$6,100, FanDuel: $8,200)
With the offensive line all finally healthy enough to start, Captain Kirk Cousins put up 31.8 DK points last week vs a tough Minnesota Vikings defense. He will now be facing the New Orleans Saints who are 8 point favorites. This game has the 2nd highest over under on the slate at 51 points. Taking over the backfield once again is Samaje Perine. He has not done much to impress so I expect Kirk Cousins to do the heavy lifting in the scoring department for the Washington Redskins this week. Kirk Cousins is guaranteed low ownership on DraftKings as the likes of Derek Carr, Matthew Stafford, and Jared Goff are all priced right above him. On Fanduel it is even better ownership wise because he is the 4th highest priced quarterback for the week. People will look over him in a heartbeat. Kirk Cousins makes for a great contrarian low owned GPP play in week 11. If I wanted to stack Kirk Cousins, Jamison Crowder would be my pick.
Blake Bortles (DK:$4,800, FD: $7,500)
If I am paying down this week, Blake Bortles is who I am looking at. Pairing him up with Marqise Lee and Marcedes Lewis would only cost you $13,000 on DraftKings. The Jacksonville Jaguars have an implied total of 22.3 pts this week and are a 7.5 point favorite. It was good to see that Blake Bortles threw a season high 51 times last week as the Cleveland Browns are a funnel pass defense this year. They have allowed only 86.4 rushing yards per game this season which is 4th best. They also are allowing the lowest yard per carry average this season at 3.1 yards.
Other QBs To Consider: Derek Carr, Jay Cutler, Alex Smith
Melvin Gordon (DK:$7,600, FD: $7,800)
Melvin Gordon faces the a Buffalo Bills defense that has given up 492 rushing yards in the last 2 weeks. Not only do the Bills sorely miss Marcell Dareus, but the offense has stalled with only 3 points scored and 198 yards gained last week. The Buffalo Bills now have to fly across the country to play the San Diego Chargers. This all adds up to a prime spot for Melvin Gordon to bounce back from last week’s dud. I am not concerned with Austn Eckler yet as his fumble late did not help his cause. Besides at least 2 running backs on the same team have benefited from the awful Bills run defense in the last 2 weeks. I really like how Melvin Gordon is priced as the 6th most expensive running back this week on both DFS websites. He can easily end up as the highest scoring running back.
Doug Martin (DK:$4,500, FD: $6,100)
This is one of those GPP plays not for the faint of heart but could win you a large field GPP. Doug Martin has been bad lately but he still had 20 carries last week so the opportunities are there. This week he plays the Miami Dolphins who are on a short week. The Carolina Panthers rushing attack put up video game numbers vs the Miami Dolphin defense Monday night. Even Cameron Artis Payne had 7 carries for 68 yards. Long story short, it is possible the Dolphins have quit on their coach like the New York Giants have.
Other RBs To Consider: LeSean McCoy, Jerick McKinnon, Rex Burkhead
DeVante Parker (DK: $6,700, FD: $6,200)
Devante Parker has seen at least 8 targets a game since his return from injury. The Tampa Bay Buccaneers are giving up the 2nd most fantasy points a game to wide receivers. They have given up a league leading 129 catches and 10 tds. Sterling Shepard, Brandin Cooks, Stefon Diggs will all catch DFS players eyes before DeVante Parker. Parker makes for low owned GPP high upside play this week.
Jeremy Maclin (DK:$4,500, FD: $6,000)
Everyone in fantasy football has probably already forgotten about Jeremy Maclin after a week off. Maclin has double digit fantasy points in every game but two. Those were against Pittsburgh and Jacksonville. Green Bay’s secondary talent is not even close to those two teams. Dontrelle Inman just put up 6 for 88 versus the Packers last week. I like Jeremy Maclin more on DraftKings a he is much better value than FanDuel.
Other WRs To Consider: Mike Evans, Stefon Diggs, Sterling Shepard
Rob Gronkowski (DK:$7,200, FD: $8,200)
Travis Kelce will be the chalk this week. The New York Giants have given up a touchdown to a tight end in every game this season and the most fantasy points to tight ends. Due to only a $100 price difference on DraftKings and the $700 savings on Fanduel, I think Rob Gronkowski will be much lower owned. We all know Rob Gronkowski has as high a ceiling as any tight end in this league. If you think Travis Kelce is a must own then you can pair him with Rob Gronkowski as I see most people picking one or the other. Rob Gronkowski is still the red zone leader this season with 14 targets and 4 touchdowns. It is also a bonus if Chris Hogan misses another game. The Oakland Raiders are giving up the 8th most fantasy points to tight ends per game so it is a spot where Gronk can smash.
Marcedes Lewis (DK:$2,700, FD: $4,900)
Cleveland is allowing the 3rd most fantasy points a game to tight ends this season thanks in part to 7 touchdowns in 9 games. Marcedes Lewis has a team leading 9 red zone targets this year. He has converted 3 of them into touchdowns. At near minimum prices, I am willing to take a shot at Marcedes Lewis in large field GPPs especially if you are looking to fade the high dollar tight ends. This looks like a week where most DFS players are looking to pay up for a tight end.
Other TEs To Consider: Travis Kelce, CJ Fiedorowicz, Jared Cook
Baltimore Ravens (DK:$3,400, FD: $4,700)
The Baltimore Ravens will face the injury riddled Green Bay Packers offense in week 11. The Packers are only projected to score 18 points this week. They will have even more trouble moving the ball on offense if Ty Montgomery and Brett Hundley sits. The Ravens defense is giving up 184.7 passing yards a game which is 3rd best.Pro Football Focus rankings have the Ravens projected as the 2nd highest scoring defense.
Arizona Cardinals (DK:$3,200, FD: $4,600)
With Patrick Peterson on DeAndre Hopkins this week, it is going to be a long day for Tom Savage. He has been a turnover machine this season with 5 fumbles lost and 2 interceptions in 3 games. The Houston Texans have also failed to score more than 14 points. Even at home, I am willing to bet this is not the week things will turn around for the Texans offense.
Other Defenses To Consider: Jacksonville Jaguars, Cincinnati Bengals, Los Angeles Chargers
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