DFS Best Bets - Week 13
November 29, 2017
By Austin Chen
Julio Jones proved again why he is worth targeting in GPPs every week. His upside is immense but the big game did not come till late in the fantasy season this year. In week 12, it came down to whether you owned Julio Jones or not. It was a rough week for the picks last week. Kareem Hunt was the biggest flop as his ownership will certainly be even lower in week 13! Carson Wentz and New England Patriots defense were the two best bets last week. All we can do is learn from it as some plays were a good spot but not the results we were looking for It is time to move on to week 13!
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Tom Brady (DraftKings:$7,800, FanDuel: $9,300)
This is probably one of the uglier quarterback slates I have seen in awhile. Most people will gladly pay down this week as Tom Brady is a whopping $800 more than the next quarterback. In his last 4 games vs the Buffalo Bills where he has played the entire game, Brady has thrown for 12 touchdowns and averaged 355 passing yards a game. Just paying for Tom Brady this week should already differentiate your lineups from others. I love pairing Brady with Rob Gronkowski who has also has had a lot of success vs the Buffalo Bills in his career.
Josh McCown (DK:$5,500, FD: $7,700)
Its weird how despite DraftKings tendency to inflate prices based on touchdowns, they kept Josh McCown at about the same price as last week. I for one will not be complaining and will happily invest in shares of McCown this week. The Kansas City Chiefs are in full panic mode after losing to the self sabotaging Buffalo Bills last week. I would pair McCown with Jermaine Kearse who will be lower owned. Kearse will also have the easier matchup lining up away from Marcus Peters.
Other QBs To Consider: Blake Bortles, Tyrod Taylor, Philip Rivers
Melvin Gordon (DK:$7,400, FD: $7,900)
The rumors of Austin Eckler gaining a bigger piece of the pie turned out to be fake news. Melvin Gordon is still the workhorse back on the Chargers offense. After leading the league in yards per carry for most of the year, the Cleveland Browns run defense is leaking. They have now allowed back to back 100 yard rushers in the last 2 weeks. I expect another 20 touch game from Gordon as the Chargers are 2 touchdown favorites this week.
Alex Collins (DK:$4,500, FD: $5,900)
I know this is not a sexy pick but it is slim pickings for running backs under 5k on Draftkings. Despite being in a 3 headed timeshare, Alex Collins still had 16 carries with 3 pass targets. He is still averaging 4.9 yards a carry this season. The Detroit Lions have been gashed to a tune of over 130 yards a game and the league highest yard per carry since losing Haloti Ngata in week 5. Alex Collins probably needs a touchdown for this play to pay off, but if he finds 2 you will be sitting very pretty on the leaderboards.
Other RBs To Consider: Leonard Fournette, Jordan Howard, Marshawn Lynch
Adam Thielen (DK: $7,500, FD: $7,800)
Desmond Trufant is questionable with a concussion in this game. Even if he suits up, he will see Stefon Diggs more than Adam Thielen. Thielen should see the less talented cornerbacks of the Atlanta Falcons. He is on the GPP radar this week as any player who can turn a 5 yard hitch route to pay dirt is worth mentioning. He has been so much more than that though. Adam Thielen has arguably been the most consistent receiver in the game with at least 5 catches every week this season.
Josh Reynolds (DK:$3,500, FD: $5,200)
Josh Reynolds took over Robert Woods’s position in the Rams offense.He had 6 targets which he turned into 4 catches 37 yards and touchdown. If Woods is out again, we can look to him for salary relief. Patrick Peterson will be locked on Sammy Watkins which will funnel passes to Cooper Kupp and Josh Reynolds. At only $3,500, Josh Reynolds can easily outperform his price in week 13.
Other WRs To Consider: Davante Adams, Deandre Hopkins, Marqise Lee
Julius Thomas (DK:$3,500, FD: $5,200)
Fire up the revenge narrative as Julius Thomas plays the Denver Broncos this week. He is not a sexy name anymore but has picked up his play in recent weeks. Thomas has at least 4 catches in 3 of the past 4 games. He is second on the team in red zone targets which has led to 2 touchdowns in the past 4 games as well.
Ricky Seals-Jones (DK:$3,200, FD: $5,600)
Ricky Seals-Jones has played only 13 snaps in the last 2 weeks. He has turned 11 targets into 7 catches, 126 yards , and 3 touchdowns. Yes, the pace is unsustainable but Blaine Gabbert is definitely keying on him when they are on the field together. The people who kept playing the unsustainable runs of Will Fuller and Alvin Kamara have been paid off handsomely this season. Besides, the tight end position has the highest probability of flopping every week anyways.
Other TEs To Consider: CJ Fiedorowicz, Jared Cook, Rob Gronkowski
New York Jets (DK:$2,500, FD: $4,400)
Let's be clear, the LA Chargers and Jacksonville Jaguars are the defenses to play if you can afford them but you didn’t need me to tell you that. If we are looking for cheaper options I like the New York Jets defense at home. The Kansas City Chiefs have been a tale of 2 halves this season. Alex Smith has thrown 5 interceptions and only 4 touchdowns in his last 4 games. He has also yet to pass for more than 263 yards in that span. Even Travis Kelce has come out publicly and said the offense cannot seem to figure out how to break out of the zone defenses they have been seeing.
Houston Texans (DK:$2,400, FD: $4,500)
The Houston Texans defense are worth a gamble this week. Marcus Mariota has thrown 8 interceptions and taken 12 sacks in the last 4 weeks. The last time the Titans scored over 24 points was back in week 6. These stats check the boxes for everything we are looking for in a defense each week.
Other Defenses To Consider: Detroit Lions, Tennessee Titans, Baltimore Ravens
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