DFS Best Bets - Week 14
December 5, 2017
By Austin Chen
Week 13 was a better week for the DFS Best Bets article. Josh McCown, Alex Collins, and Jermaine Kearse were the top plays. Meanwhile Tom Brady, Adam Thielen, and New York Jets defense were the duds of the week. It is important to pay attention to the news this time of year as teams out of the playoffs will start evaluating talent. Peyton Barber was one such example last week as he was not priced on daily fantasy websites to start.
Everyone should go check out the RotoQL NFL Lineup Optimizer as it is a must when building your daily fantasy football teams. On to the week 14 best bets!
Jameis Winston (DraftKings: $5,900, FanDuel: $7,200)
Jameis Winston had a good fantasy game last week after a shoulder injury that set him back for a few weeks. He has a nice matchup lined up again this week. Joe Flacco had his best fantasy game of the season vs the Lions last week. I think Jameis Winston can capitalize and post a similar or better result than Joe Flacco. Cameron Brate is my favorite teammate to stack along with Marvin Jones on the Lions if you want a game stack.
Jimmy Garoppolo (DK: $5,500, FD: $7,000)
Jimmy Garoppolo brought life to the the San Francisco offense last week even if the box score doesn't show it. Wide receivers on the 49ers are actually a option again for daily fantasy football. Garoppolo now faces the most generous team to quarterbacks this season in the Houston Texans.
Garoppolo can easily pay off his cheap price tag this week. He will likely be popular as most of the elite quarterbacks face tough match ups on the main slate. I would much rather be contrarian at another position as quarterbacks have the smallest fantasy point gaps. Very rarely do you win GPPs because you choose highest scoring quarterback.
Other QBs To Consider: Carson Wentz, Case Keenum, Cam Newton
Todd Gurley (DK: $8,500, FD: $7,900)
Todd Gurley is in one of my favorite spots to target elite talent. He is the top priced running back playing the top run defense this season. However, we have seen elite players overcome these match ups before. Two things that are in Todd Gurley’s favor include his involvement in the Rams passing game as well as the fact that the game is played in LA. Todd Gurley has seen at least 7 targets a game since Robert Woods has been injured. Mike Davis was able to put up a 100 total yards on 20 touches against the tough Philadelphia Eagles run defense last week. It is safe to say that Todd Gurley is a more talented player than Mike Davis.
Jordan Howard (DK: $5,400, FD: $7,000)
Over the past 7 weeks, the Cincinnati Bengals defense has allowed 9 RB1/RB2 games. Both Le'Veon Bell and Isaiah Crowell had over 100 scrimmage yards the last 2 weeks. I know Jordan Howard let a lot of people down the last few weeks but I will not be one to shy away from him in tournaments.The Chicago Bears are still a run 1st offense and that will not go away overnight. I doubt the Cincinnati Bengals will able to control the clock like the 49ers were able to do last week.
Other RBs To Consider: LeSean McCoy, Samaje Perine, Giovani Bernard if Joe Mixon is out
Sterling Shepard (DK: $5,300, FD: $6,400)
Sterling Shepard may become the forgotten man this week. Josh Gordon is priced right above him on DraftKings and will be extremely popular. Eli Manning is expected to start again which is a upgrade from Geno Smith. Manning has peppered Shepard with targets as he is the only reliable wide receiver on the Giants. The Dallas Cowboys have given up the 3rd most fantasy points to wide receivers this year. Paying down for players like Sterling Shepard has been a strategy I have been using all season. Many times the 5K players on DraftKings have the same amount of targets as the 7k and higher wide receivers. Marqise Lee last week is an example of this strategy working last week.
Trent Taylor (DK: $3,300, FD: $4,500)
Marquise Goodwin is a very good option this week but more expensive. Trent Taylor is just too cheap this week on DraftKings. At near minimum salary, he is a near lock to outplay his price. The 49ers’s quarterback change has increased the usage of Trent Taylor. He saw 6 targets for 92 yards last week after only seeing around 3 a week. This is a trend that I like to get ahead of. Trent Taylor will be see coverage mostly from slot corner Kareem Jackson who has only a 51.4 Pro Football Focus grade which is 82nd best. This a great spot for Goodwin and Taylor this week.
Other WRs To Consider: Marvin Jones, Josh Gordon, Larry Fitzgerald
Cameron Brate (DK: $4,100, FD: $5,400)
Fire up Cameron Brate whenever Jameis Winston is the quarterback as the two picked up where they have left off. Brate has only 1 game below double digits DraftKings points out of 9 when Jameis Winston has been the starter this season. The Detroit Lions have given up the 10th most fantasy points to tight ends so this is not a team to fear.
Austin Seferian-Jenkins (DK: $3,600, FD: $5,900)
Austin Seferian Jenkins will be looking to bounce back from a few bad games. He is still leading his team in snaps at the tight end position and averages 6 targets a game in the last 3 weeks. The Denver Broncos are a team that funnels passing to the tight ends thanks to their great cornerback play. Austin Seferian-Jenkins price and stats would look a lot better if not for a few drops and fumbles in the endzone this year. This week is a spot to take advantage of ASJ who has not been this cheap since week 5.
Other TEs To Consider: Kyle Rudolph, Trey Burton, Hunter Henry
Jacksonville Jaguars (DK: $3,500, FD: $5,200)
Russell Wilson vs the Jaguars pass rush is something I am very excited to see this week. It is possible that Russell Wilson can have a great game, but the Jaguars defense could still put up a good score. The Jacksonville Jaguars have 45 sacks already this season. This is also the classic trap spot of a West coast team traveling to the East coast for a noon start. The top defense in the league is always worth a play when they are only the 4th most expensive option and a $1000 less than last week.
New York Giants (DK: $2,900, FD: $4,100)
There are not a lot of great home run options on defense this week. So it is time to pick on a quarterback who has struggled recently. Dak Prescott has been in his own head since the Ezekiel Elliott suspension. I expect the Giants at home to play with pride this week after cleaning house earlier this week. It was clear that some players had quit on Ben McAdoo already.
Other Defenses To Consider: New York Jets, Kansas City Chiefs, Green Bay Packers
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