DFS Best Bets - Week 17
December 27, 2017
By Austin Chen
We have reached the final week of the NFL regular season. What a fun ride this has been as I hope everyone enjoyed the articles as much as I did writing them! Let's finish 2017 strong.
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Jimmy Garoppolo (DraftKings: 6,700, FanDuel: $7,700)
Jimmy Garoppolo has been very impressive since taking over the San Francisco 49ers. After putting the best effort against the Jacksonville defense all season, the LA Rams is not a matchup to fear. Besides, the LA Rams have nothing to play for so it would be very surprising if the starters did not get some rest. The 49ers will try to finish the season strong with 5 straight wins as they have been in evaluation mode. Jimmy Garoppolo has improved every game and it would not be surprising to see his 1st game over 25 DK points this week. DFS players maybe hesitant to play the new guy when he is priced like Drew Brees, but it makes for a excellent GPP pivot off the brand names.
Brett Hundley (DK:$4,800, FD: $6,000)
Brett Hundley is a completely different player away from Lambeau Field. He is averaging 9.2 DK points at home versus 17.4 points on the road. Despite a possibility of missing both of his top two wide receivers, his extremely cheap price makes him worth a GPP play. Hundley can score points both with his legs and via the air. He has scored over 22 points in his past 2 road tilts.
Other QBs To Consider: Cam Newton, Kirk Cousins, Philip Rivers
Kenyan Drake (DK:$7,200, FD: $8,200)
Kenyan Drake fell victim to the dreaded game script. The spread is only 2.5 pts this week as the Dolphins are a slight underdog versus the Bills at home. Considering his price did not fall on the daily fantasy sites, I expect less people to be on Drake after the dud game. Kenyan Drake still averaged 4.4 yards a carry vs the Chiefs. He now faces the most running back friendly defense. The Buffalo Bills give up a league high 28.7 fantasy points to running backs.
Marshawn Lynch (DK:$4,400, FD: $6,600)
If there is a weak spot on the LA Chargers it is their run defense. The Chargers have given up over a 160 rushing yards in back to back weeks. Marshawn Lynch has at least 16 carries in 4 of the past 5 weeks. With Derek Carr's recent struggles, the Raiders may ride Marshawn Lynch again this week after 25 carries last week. At $4,500, he is a upside play with a very affordable price.
Other RBs To Consider: Derrick Henry, Devonta Freeman, Alvin Kamara
Julio Jones (DK:$8,200, FD: $8,400)
The Atlanta Falcons have a must win game this week and it would be wise to lean on Julio Jones. Neither starting corners for the Carolina Panthers have a Pro Football Focus grade over 45. The Panthers defense have given up the 4th most fantasy points this season to wide receivers and a average of 44.55 fantasy points since week 9 which is the most in the NFL. Julio Jones has seen 30 targets in the last 3 weeks and averaged a 100 yards a game.
Brandin Cooks (DK: $6,300, FD: $7,400)
Brandin Cooks is at his cheapest price this season on DraftKings. He is in a bounce back spot after a dud last week as the Patriots still have playoff seeding to play for. The matchup is not intimidating versus Morris Claiborne who only has a 44.5 PFF grade. I expect Cooks to see his usual 7+ targets and eclipse 19 receiving yards this week.
Other WRs To Consider: Keenan Allen, T.Y. Hilton, Ted Ginn Jr.
Jack Doyle (DK:$4,700, FD: $5,400)
Jack Doyle has been targeted 18 times in the last 2 weeks. He also has at least 5 catches in 9 games this season. Finding that kind of opportunity is usually going to cost you a lot more than $4,700. The Houston Texans yield the 7th most fantasy points to tight ends. Jack Doyle will be looking to outdo his 8 catch 63 yard performance against the Texans back in week 9.
Vance McDonald (DK:$2,700, FD: $4,500)
Vance McDonald is worth a punt play this week if we are looking for a cheap tight end. He has seen 11 targets the last 2 weeks leading to 2 games with at least 4 catches and 50 yards. McDonald now has one of the most tight end friendly match ups this week. The Cleveland Browns give up the 3rd most fantasy points to the tight end position and have given up the 2nd most touchdowns to tight ends.
Other TEs To Consider: Charles Clay, Antonio Gates, Zach Ertz
Los Angeles Chargers (DK:$3,600, FD: $4,900)
The Los Angeles Chargers face Derek Carr who has been straight garbage since week 3. Carr has more turnovers than touchdowns in the last 3 weeks and the Raiders now have nothing to play for. Meanwhile, the LA Chargers are fighting for one of the last playoff spots. The Chargers defense is top 5 in sacks, point allowed and interceptions this season. The LA Chargers are at home this week where they average double digit DraftKings fantasy points making them a strong start.
Philadelphia Eagles (DK:$2,700, FD: $4,600)
As bad as the Dallas Cowboys defense has been this season, the offense is the reason why the team failed to make the playoffs. Left tackle Tyron Smith re injured his knee last week so it would be dumb and shocking to see him on the field in week 17. The Philadelphia Eagles have averaged 11.7 DK fantasy points at home this year. I expect another long day for Dak Prescott who has thrown 4 interceptions and sacked 6 times in the last 2 weeks.
Other Defenses To Consider: Washington Redskins, Pittsburgh Steelers, Seattle Seahawks
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