DFS Bets - Honda Classic
February 20, 2018
By Austin Chen
The PGA Tour travels cross country to Florida this week for the Honda Classic. It is played at PGA National which is a par 70 that measures 7,140 yards. Players will finally get to move on from the bumpy Poa Annua to Bermuda grass greens at PGA National. I played this course a few years ago and can definitely see why it plays as one of the top 10 toughest courses every year.
When the wind and rain picks up, some holes are almost impossible. It will be crucial to avoid the big numbers, making par is a good score on a lot of holes. Keeping track of the weather will be key this week to see if there are any tee time advantages.
SG: Tee To Green
SG: Ball Striking
Par 4 Scoring
Green In Regulation %
Before we break down the players to play for the Honda Classic, everyone should go check out the RotoQL PGA Lineup Optimizer as it is a must when building your daily fantasy golf teams regardless of contest size or site.
Golfers To Consider For The Honda Classic
($8,600 and above on DraftKings)
Sergio Garcia (DK:$10,500, FD: $11,900)
Sergio Garcia is making his PGA season debut this week which is a little later than normal. The good news is that he has been playing golf but just not in the United States. Garcia already has a win in 2018 at the Singapore Open. World class ball striking is very important this week which is the strength of Garcia’s game. He is 5th in SG:Ball Striking in his last 36 rounds. Combine that with 3 finishes inside the top 15 at PGA National in the past 4 years and we have our stud star of the week.
Other Golfers To Consider: Rickie Fowler, Tommy Fleetwood
Gary Woodland (DK:$9,700, FD: $10,700)
I think Gary Woodland is going to be the lowest owned player out of the top 10 highest priced players on both sites. If he was $8,700 everyone would be on him. This course fits his game and it showed last year with a 2nd place finish. Gary Woodland already has a win this season and his ball striking has been on point. Woodland is currently ranked 1st in SG:Ball Striking and 2nd in SG: Approach.
Other Golfers To Consider: Jason Dufner, Russell Knox
Rory McIlroy (DK: $11,900, FD $12,900)
In a week where there is plenty of traps and water already, I am fading Rory McIlroy. He is the second highest priced player on DraftKings and 3rd highest on Fanduel. Yes, he can come out and win by 10 strokes but the top players around McIlroy carry a lot less risk. Rickie Fowler, Sergio Garcia, Justin Thomas can just as easily win. Rory finished 2nd here in 2014 but has MC his last 2 attempts. It doesn't help that he is still rotating putters between rounds and ranks 106th SG: Putting in the last 24 rounds.
Other Golfers To Consider: Patrick Reed, Daniel Berger
($8,500 to $7,500 on DraftKings)
Chesson Hadley (DK:$7,700, FD: $9,500)
Dialed in is one way to describe Chesson Hadley’s form right now. He is currently in the top 10 for SG: Par 3,4, and 5. Hadley is also 3rd in SG: Ball Striking and 3rd in DraftKings points score in the last 36 rounds. The best news is that he is very affordable on both sites. Chesson Hadley has finished twice in the top 25 at the Honda Classic and you can argue he is a better player now than years past.
Other Golfers To Consider: Rafa Cabrera-Bello, Russell Henley
Louis Oosthuizen (DK:$7,900, FD: $10,100)
The Oosthuizen withdrawal always looms when he tees off, but this is one week we can rest easy. He lives nearby so barring a injury, I don't see it happening. Even though Oosthuizen has never won on US soil, he has plenty of 2nd place finishes. He has played at PGA National twice with a MC and T21 in the last 5 years. The numbers that popped this week is his SG: Par 4 and more importantly his SG:Par 4 from 450 yards -500 yards. He was 15th and 5th in those two stats.
Other Golfers To Consider: Adam Scott, Scott Stallings
Kevin Kisner (DK: $8,500, FD:$10,300)
In theory this should be a course that fits Kevin Kisner’s game. So far we have not seen it come to fruition as his best finish is a T48 in his last 3 attempts. This is due to the fact that he has not putted well here with a negative SG: Putting. Another stat that makes me pause to player Kisner is that he is only 111th in SG: Par 4 from 450-500 yards and 79th in SG: Par 4 in the past 36 rounds.
Other Golfers To Consider: Keegan Bradley, Tiger Woods
(Below $7,500 and below on DraftKings)
Luke Donald (DK:7,000, FD: $8,500)
As bad as things have been for Luke Donald the past few years, he has not missed a cut here in the last 4 years. Donald has finished T27th,T61, T7, and T8 week in that span. It will be hard pressed to find a better stud value play than that. His success can be linked to his outstanding putting on Bermuda. He is 8th in SG: Putting on Bermuda when we look at the last 36 rounds. Lets see if he can build on his T37 last week.
Other Golfers To Consider: Stewart Cink, Patton Kizzire
Graeme McDowell (DK:$7,300, FD: $9,100)
Graeme McDowell has 3 top 14s in his last 5 Honda Classics. Much like Luke Donald, G Mac’s game has not been anywhere close to his top form. However, his ball striking showed life at the Genesis Open. He finished 12th in Green in Regulation % and 6th in SG:Tee To Green. If he can keep that up, this can be a great week as McDowell ranks 9th in SG: Putting on Bermuda greens in the past 24 rounds.
Other Golfers To Consider: Sean O’Hair, Billy Horschel
Thomas Pieters (DK: $7,400, FD: $9,500)
This is a course to avoid players who can put up a big number on a hole like Pieters can. He already missed the cut last year in 1st attempt at PGA National. The name and price maybe there but the course fit is not.
Other Golfers To Consider: JB Holmes, Peter Uihlein
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