DFS Bets - Arnold Palmer
March 13, 2018
By Austin Chen
The PGA stays in Florida for another week. This week they are headed to Bay Hill as it is the host site of the Arnold Palmer Invitational. Bay Hill Club & Lodge measures to 7,419 yards and is a par 72 with a Bermuda grass putting surface. Hitting greens from over 200 yards and keeping the ball on the fairway will be the keys to successful week at Bay Hill.
All eyes will be on Tiger Woods after his 2nd place finish at the Valspar. I will just get it out of the way let you know my thoughts on Tiger. I will have him in lineups for the 1st time this year. The course history and form are too hard to ignore. He is the Vegas favorite but 5th in salary on DraftKings and 3rd on Fanduel. He has won 8 times at Bay Hill. This is the kind of course Tiger Woods excels at where the winner is around 10 under vs a birdie fest.
SG: Par 5
Approaches From >200 yards
Before we break down the rest of the golfers at the Arnold Palmer Invitational, everyone should go check out the RotoQL PGA Lineup Optimizer as it is a must when building your daily fantasy golf teams regardless of contest size or site.
Golfers To Consider For The Arnold Palmer Invitational
($8,600 and above on DraftKings)
Justin Rose (DK:$11,500, FD: $12,200)
Justin Rose checks all the boxes you are looking for in a stud pick this week. He is in great form with 4 top 10s in his last 5 events. Rose has also finished inside the top 13 in 3 of his last 4 appearances at Bay Hill. He is 3rd in Birdies Gained and 4th in Bogey Avoided and 7th in Par 5 Scoring. It is hard not to lock in Justin Rose for another top 10 finish this week.
Other Golfers To Consider: Alex Noren, Jason Day
Hideki Matsuyama (DK:$9,700, FD: $11,400)
We have actually seen very little of Matsuyama this year. In GPPs, I am taking Warren Buffett's advice to be greedy when others are fearful. This course sets up great for Hideki Matsuyama but the wrist injury and high salary will keep his ownership lower than normal. He is 3rd in SG: T2G and SG: Approach so the form is still there last we saw him.
Other Golfers To Consider: Tyrrell Hatton, Bubba Watson
Rickie Fowler (DK: $10,300, FD $11,800)
Rickie Fowler may turn it around this week but his putting and short game have been very bad recently. He is 84th in SG: Putting and 64th in SG: Around The Green in his last 12 rounds. These numbers are actually worse than Rory McIlroy in the same time frame. This is a week where I just like everyone more in the top 15 highest priced players on DraftKings. I think I can get similar results as any of them without as much risk or ownership as the 3 players I am fading.
Other Golfers To Consider: Adam Scott, Rory McIlroy
($8,500 to $7,500 on DraftKings)
Brian Harman (DK:$8,500, FD: $10,600)
Brian Harman has been Mr. Steady with 5 Top 5 finishes already this season. Even though he is not a long hitter, Harman is 10th in SG: Par 5 and 20th in Birdies Gained. He also is very unlikely to blow up as he is 1st in double bogey avoided and 21st in bogey avoided. Adding back to back T17 or better at Bay Hill the last 2 years, it easy to see why Harman is the mid tier stud pick this week.
Other Golfers To Consider: Jason Kokrak, Zach Johnson
Luke List (DK:$8,100, FD: $9,200)
This year seems to be the one where players who could never win finally do. So why can’t it be Luke List’s turn this week? List has been running hot lately with 5 straight top 26s which lands him as the 10th highest scoring DraftKings golfer in the last 36 rounds. This can be thanks to being 4th in SG:T2G, 39th in SG:APP and 12th in SG:ARG. List will try to improve on his T17 finish at the Arnold Palmer Invitational last year.
Other Golfers To Consider: Jamie Lovemark, Scott Stallings
Kiradech Aphibarnrat (DK: $7,900, FD:$10,300)
The travel really worries me. He has gone from Florida to Mexico to Burma and now back to Florida in the past 4 weeks. Other than being 1st in SG:Putting on Bermuda, Aphibarnrat is outside the top 100 in SG:ARG, SG:T2G, SG: APP, and SG: Ballstriking.
Other Golfers To Consider: Jimmy Walker, Marc Leishman
(Below $7,500 and below on DraftKings)
Francisco Molinari (DK:7,300, FD: $9,900)
Francisco Molinari is way too cheap this week. He has excellent course history with a T7,T9, T17 and T5 in his last 4 trips to Bay Hill. Molinari is also in great form. He is currently 4th in SG: Approach, 2nd in SG:T2G, and 19th in SG: Par 5 in the last 36 rounds. He maybe popular but it will be hard to fade him at only $7,300.
Other Golfers To Consider: Kevin Chappell, Austin Cook
Kevin Na (DK:$7,100, FD: $8,900)
Kevin Na burned a lot of players including me last week with a late WD. He is the definition of high risk and high reward this week. I am willing to go back to the well again as he finished T2 the last time he teed off. Na is 27th SG:Approach in the last 36 rounds and is priced cheap enough to target in GPPs. He missed the cut last year at Bay Hill which will lower his ownership. Na did not have a good year in 2017 though but he did finish T6 and T14 the two trips before 2017.
Other Golfers To Consider: Charley Hoffman, Sam Burns
Chesson Hadley (DK: $7,100, FD: $8,900)
Chesson Hadley has hit a bit of a wall since leaving the west coast. The last time I wrote about Hadley at the Honda Classic, he had been in the top 10 for SG: Par 3,4, and 5. Since then he is 104th in SG: Par 3, 33rd in SG:Par 4 and 58th in SG: Par 5. He is also struggling around the greens with a SG:ARG rank over a 100. Until I see him put a good week together, I am staying far away from Chesson Hadley.
Other Golfers To Consider: Ollie Schniederjans, Kevin Kisner
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