Buckle up!
First Down: In college football, could you give me the top 5-6 teams that are serious candidates to win the BCS? Do any of 'em have value at the future book? -- Jimmy Richmond, VA.
Brian Edwards: Jimmy, Southern Cal is obviously the front-runner, but who wants to bet a team with 8/5 odds to win it all? That's no fun. The Trojans will start at No. 1 in my poll (which is worth 33 percent of the votes in the VI Top 25), and really, how could anyone with a straight face not consider them the team to beat? Eight starters are back on offense, including last season's Heisman winner, QB Matt Leinart, in addition to lightning-quick RB Reggie Bush. Plus, the Pac-10 is down this season with no true power to challenge the two-time defending champs.
Louisville might be worth a shot with a small play at 40/1 odds. More about the Cardinals on the next question, but I will say they'll likely be favored in every game with only two possible exceptions -- versus Pittsburgh and at West Virginia.
The two legit contenders outside of USC are -- in my opinion -- Texas and Michigan.
Although I do feel like Texas will break through and finally beat Oklahoma this year, the 6/1 odds at the future book don't excite me. I feel the Wolverines could be worth a shot at 18/1, but I don't recommend it for heavy units by any means. Michigan has eight starters back on offense and six on defense. Most importantly, the Wolverines have a great 1-2 punch offensively with QB Chad Henne and RB Michael Hart. The toughest test for Lloyd Carr's troops will be a trip to Iowa on Oct. 22.
Now of course there are another half-dozen or so squads that could win the national title, but because of their schedules, it will most likely be too difficult. That second-tier group of teams includes LSU, Iowa, Purdue and Miami. Les Miles inherits a team loaded with talent, but I question whether or not JeMarcus Russell is the answer at QB. As for Iowa, I'm very high on this squad that has the best linebackers in the country, in addition to one of the premier QBs in Drew Tate and one of the top-five coaches, Kirk Ferentz. But the schedule is a killer for the Hawkeyes with road games at Purdue, at Ohio State and at Wisconsin, not to mention the aforementioned home date with Michigan.
Chris David: According to all the preseason publications, it appears that the University of Southern California is already getting ready for the BCS Championship at the Rose Bowl. After looking at its schedule, talent pool and coaching, it’s hard not to argue against the Trojans as being one of the eight BCS teams. The rest of the nation is hard to figure out, since all the other conferences beat up on one another.
I think LSU (18/1) or Tennessee (10/1) comes out of the Southeastern Conference, while the Big Ten has four contenders in Iowa, Purdue, Michigan and Ohio State. The ACC might be the toughest to predict, with Miami, Florida State and Virginia Tech all starting raw quarterbacks.
Right now, the Big East is Louisville’s to lose, but I don’t think the Cardinals would get an invite to the Rose Bowl due to a weak schedule. The last of the major conferences that I haven’t mentioned is the Big XII, which could finally see Mack Brown and Texas break through. Besides an early battle in Columbus against Ohio State and the annual Oklahoma tilt, the schedule favors the Longhorns. Also, Texas proved the critics wrong last year by rallying past Michigan 38-37 in the Rose Bowl. Lastly, when you have quarterback Vince Young, 6/1 odds seem pretty sound.
Brad Young: Southern Cal is gunning for its third consecutive national championship, a feat that hasn't been done in the history of the Associated Press poll. Besides, at 6/5 there is no value at all. Especially from a team that has to replace its offensive coordinator and defensive line coach. The Bowl Championship Series is a mess, but it did produce the top two teams last season, much like the NCAA Tournament for men's basketball.
Two teams with value that have a chance to play at the Rose Bowl January 4 include the Michigan Wolverines (12/1) and the Virginia Tech Hokies (20/1). Michigan returns a ton of talent, but has potential land mines throughout the season that concludes against rival Ohio State. The Buckeyes also lay claim to 12/1 odds, meaning the Big Game this year might have added importance for both sides.
Virginia Tech has its tough games at home (Miami, Georgia Tech and Boston College), and has a real shot of winning the ACC. Conference rival Miami is an 8/1 selection to claim another national championship, but I see a down year for the Hurricanes by their standards.
Texas has a great shot of returning to the Rose Bowl, and is the second favorite on the board at 6/1. However, Vince Young and the Longhorns will have to break the Oklahoma hex to reach Pasadena. The Sooners hope to rebound from back-to-back drubbings in the national title game, and enter the fray at 10/1.
Second Down: What college teams are underrated and have a chance to be top-10 material like Boise State and Louisville last year? Would any of these teams have win totals posted and are there some 'overs' to recommend? -- Todd Bowler, Ann Arbor!
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| Louisville's offense should be just as potent as last year thanks to the return of RB Michael Bush. (Getty) |
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BE: Todd, I expect Boise State and Louisville to be just as strong as last year. The Broncos return eight starters on each side of the ball, including QB Jared Zabransky, who threw for 16 touchdowns and ran for 13 more in 2004. Dan Hawkins' offense finished second in the nation in scoring (48.9 points per game) and could be better this season. The Broncos have a great chance to jump into the Top 10 in early September, when they can make a splash with wins at Georgia and at Oregon State.
Louisville moves into the Big East after last year's breakout 11-1 campaign led by departed QB Stefan LeFors. The Cardinals might've lost one of the best signal callers in the country, but they don't plan to skip a beat with sophomore sensation Brian Brohm now assuming the starting role. Remember, Brohm was considered the best QB in the country coming out of high school in '03, and he saw plenty of playing time last year when head coach Bobby Petrino often gave him one series in the second quarter of each game. The Cardinals have plenty of talent back in the mix, including RB Michael Bush (753 yards, 7 TDs, 5.6 YPC in '04) and WR Montrell Jones.
Those are the two mid-majors who have legit chances to be contenders.
As for sleeper teams from power conferences, Alabama (100/1 odds at Sportsbook.com) is the first team to come to my mind, assuming Brodie Croyle gets healthy and can stay that way. I said it a number of times last year and I'll say it again, the Crimson Tide would've been playing Auburn at home for the SEC West title if Croyle hadn't suffered an ACL tear in late September.
Mike Shula's squad returns nine starters from last year's defense that ranked as the nation's second-best. That unit should only be better. As for the offense, there's plenty of talent if Croyle and a pair of RBs (Kenneth Darby and Tim Castille) are completely recovered from injuries. Tyrone Prothro is a playmaker on special-teams returns and will be more of a factor in the passing game with Croyle under center.
The main reason I feel 'Bama can be a contender, though, is the schedule. Now that's not to imply it's an easy schedule. In fact, it's far from it, but the toughest games do fall at home inside the friendly confines of Bryant-Denny Stadium. Florida, Tennessee and LSU all come to Tuscaloosa.
CD: Boise State and Louisville were two solid teams last year and they put on a great show in The Liberty Bowl. I expect both squads to continue their success this season, but the Broncos face some tough competition early with road games against Georgia and Oregon State before opening at home versus Bowling Green.
If you’re looking at teams to post W’s, then keep an eye on Miami (OH). The Redhawks start the season at Ohio State, who could be looking ahead to Texas. If anything comes out of this game, it will be confidence for this MAC powerhouse. Look for this team to get 10 wins on the year, 11 if they topple the Buckeyes.
I’m a Penn State alumnus and lately it’s been frustrating to admit that. The defense played great team ball despite not having any true stars. They start the season with a great chance of going 5-0 before welcoming Ohio State to Happy Valley. They only play four road games, with battles against Michigan and Michigan State expected to be the toughest. If quarterback Michael Robinson can ever get on track, then this team has a real shot to win 9-10 games. If Joe Paterno doesn’t go to a bowl in Florida (Citrus, Outback), then even I would certainly understand if he was handed his waling papers.
One more team that doesn’t get a ton of respect is Virginia Tech. Frank Beamer’s troops continue to win yearly and have one of the biggest wildcards in college football, Marcus Vick. This is a battle-tested group, who hung tough against Auburn (16-13) in the Sugar Bowl last season. The Hokies won the ACC in their first year in the conference, yet are still predicted to finish behind the ‘Canes and ‘Noles. They miss FSU again this year, but catch Miami in Blacksburg. At a 20/1 price, I would definitely recommend a wager on Beamer and company.
BY: One team that jumps out at me is the Fresno State Bulldogs. Coach Pat Hill led his team to quality early season wins last year over Washington and Kansas State before a three-game midseason slide. Fresno State capped off the season with a victory over Virginia in the MPC Computers Bowl, 37-34.
A couple of preseason polls have the Bulldogs ranked in the teens, so it might be wise to jump on the bandwagon now before it gets overloaded. Fresno State returns 17 starters, including nine on an offense that averaged over 40 points per game. The only real potential road block for the Bulldogs is their Nov. 12 home game against Boise State, with the winner making a strong statement for the BCS party.
Third Down: How important is scheduling when looking at NFL teams at the future book and the 'over/unders' for season win totals? How about the Draft? Are there some teams that did so well in the Draft that the rookies will make immediate impacts? -- Pete Bernstein, Redskinsville
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| With a healthy Rex Grossman, could the Bears be the surprise team in the NFC? (Getty) |
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BE: There's no doubt that scheduling plays a major role in the handicapping of NFL teams. The Falcons will be a great example this year with an extremely difficult slate of games. They play five playoff teams from last season in their first seven games. Not only that, but Atlanta will only have eight games at one o'clock on Sundays, a major break from the norm due to a number of night games caused by the popularity of Michael Vick. Remember, the Falcons have never posted back-to-back winning seasons. That said, I don't want anything to do with a minus 130 price for betting 'under' 9 1/2 win for Jim Mora's team.
In terms of teams that helped themselves in the off-season, I really like the changes made by the Vikings, who have a win total of 9 1/2. They should be greatly improved on defense with the additions of cover corner Fred Smoot and free safety Darren Sharper. Furthermore, Minnesota adds a pair of veteran linebackers in Sam Cowart and Napoleon Harris.
Offensively, Daunte Culpepper will be able to distribute the ball with more balance and not worry about keeping Randy Moss happy. This is a team that helped themselves in the Draft, as I expect rookie WR Troy Williamson from South Carolina to step into a starting role. Ditto to pass-rushing specialist Erasmus James, who was a first-round pick from Wisconsin. Don't be surprised if rookie RB Ciatrick Fason makes his impact felt as well. This fourth-rounder could be the steal of the Draft.
Another team to watch is the Bears, who added some offensive spark in the Draft with RB Cedric Benson and WR Mark Bradley. Plus, they went out and signed WR Muhsin Muhammad, giving QB Rex Grossman a number of new options at his disposal.
CD: I believe scheduling in the NFL plays a major part, but determining a team’s strength of schedule is difficult these days. For example, who would’ve thought that San Diego was going to be considered a tough match last year in December. At the same time, you never know if a game is going to matter later in the season, with teams resting/preparing for the playoffs.
The key I would look for is back-to-back road games. Every team plays them, but you like to get them out of the way early in the season. There is nothing more difficult with playing consecutive weeks on the road or three out of four weeks come December.
I don’t put a lot of stock into rookies, since there are few and far in between that make a difference in their first year. Last year’s class had some real bright spots, with Ben Roethlisberger, Jonathan Vilma, Kevin Jones and Julius Jones all showing signs of stardom. Injuries play a major toll on these kids and learning a new system is a lot harder than you think. Add in a 16-game schedule with four preseason tilts and these new faces could be dead in November.
BY: Strength of schedule definitely plays a role and I'll use the Seattle Seahawks last year as an example. The NFC West was considered a weak conference last year with San Francisco and Arizona equaling four games on Seattle's schedule. There's a strong chance for three wins or more as opposed to the AFC West where teams usually just beat each other up.
The draft is always important, a way of balancing out the league after a few years provided the doormats do their homework and pick up the right players. There are always hidden gems in the NFL Draft. Everyone was high on Eli Manning last year, and he has the potential to become a very capable signal caller, but almost nobody was talking about Ben Roethlisberger.
This year I can see running back Cedric Benson helping Chicago through the season, and oft-injured RB Frank Gore in San Francisco provided he stays healthy. Remember Terrell Davis wasn't drafted until the later rounds due to health concerns, and turned out to be a hidden gem that helped the Broncos to back-to-back titles. I also think Cleveland wide receiver Braylon Edwards will really help that offense and get the Browns back on track.
4- What teams will take a step upward this year (like Atlanta and San Diego last season) and why? How about the other end of the spectrum, headed in downward direction? Steve Tressel, Dallas, TX.
BE: I feel like the Jags are on the rise with a defense led by two of the best defensive lineman in football, John Henderson and Marcus Stroud. Offensively, Jacksonville has an excellent trio of skill players in QB Byron Leftwich, RB Fred Taylor and WR Jimmy Smith. Also, first-round pick Matt Jones is a versatile player who could have a big impact playing WR, TE or half-back. I'm not against a wager of 'over' 8 1/2 for the Jags this year.
On the flip side, I'm not so sure that Moss can lift the Raiders from the doldrums of back-to-back losing campaigns. I don't trust Kerry Collins to be consistent and the schedule isn't very kind for a team off a 5-11 season. I like 'under' 7 1/2 for the Raiders.
CD: I believe Cincinnati and Marvin Lewis are poised to make a run this year, with Carson Palmer finally getting rid of all the mental mistakes and the Johnson boys (Rudi and Chad) lending a solid effort. I think Pittsburgh’s season last year was a fluke, while Baltimore’s offensive woes continue to hurt its chances. Cleveland has a new coach, which shouldn’t make a difference at all. With all those things happening, the Bengals control their own destiny in the NFC North.
If there was one questionable decision made this offseason, then it was Brett Favre’s return to Green Bay. I think this is the year that the Packers finally implode and finish the season with a poor record. The offensive line dropped two starters and the best receiver (Javon Walker) is holding out. The defense has so many question marks and gave up 40-plus points on three separate occasions last year. The aura of Lambeau Field has also lost its luster, with the team dropping five games in Wisconsin last season, including an embarrassing 31-17 decision to Minnesota in the playoffs. Hope you’re ready Mr. Favre.
BY: Teams that finish in first place in their respective divisions face tougher opponents, while last-place teams have easier schedules. The NFL loves parity, and this is just another way of making sure that almost every team has a chance to win (unlike baseball). League revenues are greater when things are more competitive, so expect New England to take a tumble.
No team has ever won three Super Bowls in a row, and the Patriots will not snap that streak. Especially with both offensive and defensive coordinators leaving for greener pastures. I see New England, facing a tough first-place schedule, missing the postseason altogether.
San Diego enjoyed playing a last-place schedule last year and took advantage, but the 'Bolts should return to mediocrity this season with a tougher schedule. The AFC West has solid teams, and no team will emerge from that division unscathed.
For a team on the rise, I really like the Houston Texans. This franchise has been slowly building since their 2002 inception, and quarterback David Carr has been in the league long enough to make a difference. Houston is an 8/1 selection to win the AFC South since powerhouse Indianapolis is in the same division. I don't think the Texans will topple the Colts, but I can see the team making a serious run at a wild-card berth.