The 2004 Masters will be determined on the greens of Augusta National. This handicapper strongly believes that putting is the great equalizer.
One can dissect all the stats available for each player in this year's field, but I'm willing to wager that putting average will dominate the results. Yes, greens in regulation has been a key in the past. Vijay Singh hit 81 percent when he won. My favorite stat this year has been ball striking, which is a combination of total driving (distance and accuracy) and GIR. As I mentioned before I believe Chad Campbell is the best ball striker, tee to green on the Tour today, but his putting has been marginal at best.
Sure, I've always preached long hitters and those that can play a draw off the tee are key components and handicapping factors that you must consider when betting your future book and matchups. But, what about last year when the average hitting lefty Mike Weir, putted his way to a green jacket?
Putting at Augusta National can be a nightmare. If your speed or line is slightly off it will show here. Hale Irwin says, "If your are putting poorly, going into the Masters, basically you have no chance."
The par 72 layout measures 7,270 yards. There were no major changes to the course for 2004. Hole No. 11 added 36 pine trees, but no holes were lengthen or redesigned as we saw in 2002.
Here are my handicapping notes and thoughts for some of the 2004 field:
Tiger Woods 4/1...His putting alone can make him a contender, but overall do not like his current form going into the first major of the season.
Ernie Els 8/1...T6, T5, T6 and second to Tiger in 2000, very close to slipping on his first green jacket. He desires this tournament more than any other.
Davis Love III 12/1... Four of his last five starts at Augusta were in the Top 20, second in 1999. The Georgia resident has all the tools to win this event if his streaky putter can do the scoring.
Phil Mickelson 7/1...Weir and Len Mattice were in the playoff for the title last year, who finished third? Of course it was Mickelson. He has played so well this year, cannot ignore his chances.
Retief Goosen 30/1...On my recent scouting trip at the WGC Matchplay Championship, I was most impressed with the Goose. He hits it nine miles and swings more effortlessly that the Big Easy. Consider this, he ranks first in total driving, seventh in GIR, which makes him No. 1 in ball striking. Now, add that he is No. 9 on tour in putting with a 1.710 average and 16th on the money list. You don't even notice him. At 30/1 he is worth a serious look.
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| John Daly appears to be playing the best ball of his career.(AP Images) |
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John Daly 50/1...If there ever was a major tailor made for the 84 Lumber man, it is the Masters. You know he has the length, we know he hits a draw, we know he'll give it a rip on all the par 5's, but what gives him his best shot at winning here, is that deft short game and especially his putting touch. He currently ranks No. 3 on Tour in putting! He is in the Top ten on the Money List which got him back into this event. He is playing well and has been at Augusta practicing since last Friday.
Adam Scott 30/1...At 23 years old many do not expect the Aussie to grab the Masters by the collar and dominate this tournament. Now, if you were to write down on a piece of paper the potential players in the world today that could give Tiger a run for his money, there might be only a handful. Adam Scott would be at the top of my list. The Players Championship winner, missed the cut last week at the Bell South Classic, but he will be ready for the test this week. Currently, 15th on Tour in putting, putting was or always has been his Achilles heel to making it big on the main circuit. I like him allot to show his game this week, and I'll be looking extra hard to bet matchups involving Scott.
Vijay Singh 10/1...never liked his putting on these types of fast undulating greens.
Padraig Harrington 24/1...could have won last week, but lacks the fire power to come from behind and shoot a solid final round when it counts. He ranks No. 1 in putting on the European Tour.
Chad Campbell 35/1...do not like his chances here. Only his second appearance and his putting is brutal.
Nick Price 120/1...normally Price at this price would warrant a play, but he is so short off the tee and he has not played much cannot recommend.
Kenny Perry 50/1...always near the top in ball striking and is No. 3 in GIR. Have to like his chances here. He hits a solid draw off the tee. Last year Perry was in contention, until he made a triple bogey on the back nine on Saturday.
Stewart Cink 80/1...nice price on the Georgia Tech star. He has not missed a cut this year and five of his eight starts have been in the Top 25. Worth a serious look.
Field Bet 5/1...most handicappers are not seeking the best value when wagering on the field. You must find the sportsbook that is offer the highest price with the fewest players listed on the future book. Master this handicapping tip and the field bet can be a profitable wager if you bet many events. However, for the Masters, I do not recommend this bet, because very few no name players win a green jacket.
Editor's note: Alf Musketa is considered the world's most premier golf handicapper. His system and style are flawless and is considered unparalleled. Musketa has been cashing in all season long and continues this weekend with golf’s biggest event. Get all of his matchup plays for The Masters by clicking here.