Alf Musketa is drilling 67 percent (40-29) of his golf matchups on the season. Dime players are up a heavy $11,500 with the link plays. Currently, Musketa has matchups and proposition plays posted on the 2004 U.S. Open. Get all of his plays in his pick pack by clicking here.
For golf handicapping purposes, you must save this article for the remainder of the season. Why? Perhaps, the next three majors may all be won by the same player.
Impossible you say! Well, unless you have done you golf handicapping homework, you should know that the next three majors are all on links, wind driven and difficult golf courses.
Shinnecock Hills Golf Club, in Southampton, N.Y., is an old tortuous links track that resembles a British Open style course. But, important to remember it has been set up by the USGA and is much tougher, narrower and the greens are considerably faster than the European tracks.
After Shinnecock, is the British Open at Royal Troon and then the PGA Championship along the shores of Lake Michigan at Wisconsin's Whistling Straits. Strong prevailing winds will always come into play on these courses, not each and everyday, but most certainly will cause havoc with the field's average score on blustery days.
Shinnecock will play to a par 70 at 6,996 yards. Like most U.S. Opens you'll need to hit it very straight and hit plenty of greens to have a chance. In fact, in the past seven U.S. Open's the winner has either led the field in Greens in Regulation (GIR) or tied for the lead in this stat category. Keep an eye on GIR leader Vijay Singh, Phil Mickelson and Sergio Garcia whom all rank in the Top 5 in GIR.
So, what kind of player can we expect to see on or near the lead on Father's Day. Strong wind players of course. I like those that hit plenty of punch shots and keep the ball low. Shinnecock favors a fade off the tee. There are seven holes where a left to right shot is demanding and only three the other way. You must seriously consider the player that hits the tight U.S. Open fairways and stays out of the high wispy fescue rough this week.
No Europeans. No European player has won the U.S. Open since Tony Jacklin in 1970 and no European has won a major since Jean Van DeVelde lost the British Open on Carnoustie, ok, Paul Laurie won there. European courses favor bump and run and with wider open fairways. Try bump and run on U.S. Open courses and you'll never hit a green less hold one. Note: The Goose and the Big Easy are from South Africa.
Previous success at U.S. Open courses and layouts are invaluable. John Daly, Hank Kuehne, Stuart Appleby for example, will never win a U.S. Open, they are just too erratic off the tee.
Tiger Woods: 9/2
You may recall during the Masters, I handicapped and wrote a piece called; Top 10 Reasons Why Tiger Woods will not win the Masters.
I'd like to change that title to: Top 5 Reasons Why Tiger Woods will win the U.S. Open.
Tiger was embarrassed in 1995, when he was 19 years old and played his first U.S. Open at Shinnecock. He had to withdraw from the competition after injuring his wrist trying to dig through the tough fescue rough. He will constantly be reminded of this and conquer the rough.
At the Memorial Tournament, Jack's Tournament, Tiger hit the ball the best he has all season. He was back to hitting a cut/fade which will work well at Shinnecock. He was swinging better on plane, and hit more fairways than usual. Add his super short game to the mix and Tiger should be ready for a wind swept track and another U.S. Open to his credit.
David Toms: 25/1
Easily worth a play at 25 to 1. Forget about him shooting a second round 77 at the Buick Classic. He shared the first day lead at one point and won three weeks previous at the Fed Ex St. Jude Classic.
Tom's game seems to be getting stronger throughout the years after missing the early season following wrist surgery. In seven U.S. Open's he has missed only one cut and finished T5 in 2003.
Scott Verplank: 40/1
Nine years ago Verplank finished 15th in the U.S. Open at Shinnecock. He has never missed a cut at the U.S. Open. Considered one of the straightest hitters on Tour, currently ranking 2nd in Driving Accuracy, Verplank is due to contend on Sunday for his first major. If the week fails to produce gusty winds, Verplank is my top choice.
Stewart Cink: 30/1
There is no player that poses more in the game of golf after he swings than Cink. This is not a joke, but a tribute to his consistent game. Recall, Cink made a horrible double bogey on the last hole of the 2000 U.S. Open at Southern Hills. He vows to rectify that mistake at a U.S. Open, which is most likely the major he has the best chance to win.
Cink has improved dramatically with his putting since switching to a long belly putter. Many critics believe that no player will win a major on the fast and hard greens of a U.S Open or Masters with a long putter. If they do not ban the long/anchoring putters, it is only a matter of time before they win one.
Jeff Maggert: Field 5/1
To play a field bet, you really have to do your shopping. It is very advantageous to find the sportsbook that lists the least number of golfers with odds in their future book, combined with the highest odds in the field. In other words, if sportsbook A has 30 players listed and the Field Odds are 5 to 1 and sportsbook B has 40 players listed and also a Field Odds of 5 to 1, you must wager at sportsbook A where there are less golfers to beat.
Maggert is the most mechanical player on tour. When his driver is on, he hits the ball very accurately and is a live contender to win any U.S. Open. His game is fairways and greens and will settle for par on most holes. Not a bad recipe for a U.S. Open style venue. If Maggert can roll the ball well this week with his balky putter he has a long shot chance. Instead of betting the field with Maggert, find him with listed odds. You should be able to get 50 to 1 or higher.
Sleepers:
Tim Clark, Jerry Kelly, Kirk Triplett, John Rollins, Luke Donald, Stephen Ames, Justin Leonard.
As usual my focus in betting any major championship is matchups.
I start with a current form list, then a U.S. Open list of players. I go over all of the major stat categories and decide which ones are the most important this week, but most of my success has come from betting against certain players that are playing poorly or do whose game does not fit the tournament course well.
A go against list can make just as much if not more money in betting matchups. Here are a few that I am looking to bet against at Shinnecock:
Fredrik Jacobson, Carlos Franco, Robert Allenby, Adam Scott, Shigeki Maruyama, Lee Janzen, Jose Maria Olazabal, Aaron Baddeley, Thomas Bjorn and Rich Beem.
