Editor's note: Click here for Alf Musketa's British Open pick pack, containing five matchup plays with analysis. Plus, Alf's members-only content is included, with a plethora of other recommendations a few suggestions for future book plays.
Do not get caught handicapping the British Open field of 1997 the last time the Open was held at Royal Troon. Too many changes in the game, especially equipment has brought the field closer together.
Note the course changes. In seven years, the only alterations to Royal Troon are 83 yards in length and 10 bunkers added. Troon's defense is and always will be the links side wind, especially on the back nine.
My sources tell me that the fairways seem very narrow, and that the rough from wet weather is penal.
This Open course will play very much like Shinnecock Hills of the U.S. Open, the exception will be the out of control greens.
Royal Troon will play to a par 71 at 7,175 yards long.
Tiger Woods not the favorite? Yes, indeed, Ernie Els the 2002 Open champion is listed at most betting establishments as the new chalk at 6-1. Tiger has drifted to 7 or 8-1.
Tiger is on a 0 for 8 major slump. He won the WGC Matchplay this year, however won due to the poor effort from his match play competitors. Other than that win, his current form has come close three times to missing his first cut on tour since his rookie season.
I fell into the trap of backing/betting on Tiger in the U.S. Open in a matchup after watching his play improve at the Memorial Tournament two weeks prior to the U.S. Open. He was hitting a controlled fade which should have fared well at Shinnecock. At the U.S. Open he could not hit a cut to save his life.
I am now convinced that his swing, not his short game are in need of major repair. With the fairways at Troon tight as some of those at the U.S. Open, Tiger probably will struggle in this major as well.
Nick Price recently said, "He can't drive the ball in the fairway, you have to be a great driver of the ball to win major championships." We have noticed Tiger in practice on the range has constantly worked on slowing down his swing. He is trying to time his swing to match his body speed and it is not working. So, when he goes out to play in a tournament he is focusing on his timing and not his target with a controlled swing.
