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Musketa: PGA Championship preview
August 10, 2004
By Alf Musketa
VegasInsider.com
Place all your golf wagers at Sportsbook.com.
Whistling Straits promises to be an interesting challenge for the best players in the world if.....the wind blows. On average the daily gusts of 10-20 mph may not shred the scoring much, but this course and its 1,400 bunkers will make for great TV and keep you on the edge of your seats following matchup wagers.
The Straits course will play to a new major championship record of 7,597 yards, a par 72 that also has the longest par 4 in major history, the 15th hole that climbs to 518 yards. Note, all 1,400 bunkers or sand areas are treated as such, a hazard and not a waste area.
Players at any major tournament will complain or detest the brutal conditions. To date, I've heard from Loren Roberts who says 10 over par will win this week. Dave Pelz said 2 under should prevail, to the course designer Pete Dye, who believes 10 under par
will win.
My take on the whining is this: Back in 1999 the PGA Club Championship was held at Whistling Straits and after 72 holes, Jeff Freedman had fired 287, which was 1 under par. Yes, the track only played 7,208 yards, but this was not the stellar field that is here, nor did they bomb wind-busting Pro V1's 300 plus yards back then.
Without a doubt the wind off of Lake Michigan will determine the score outcome. I am looking for prop bets that feature an over/under total this week and would love to play "under" 287. Also, the course record of 67 is in jeopardy, fired by Senior Tour player Terry Mauney. I know better than to wish tough conditions that are not fair in the PGA Championship. The greens will be faster than the slow Royal Troon greens and much more acceptable and playable than the speedy greens of Shinnecock Hills of the U.S. Open.
Keep in mind this is the final chance to make the Top 10 list for this year's Ryder Cup. No. 11 on the list is Jerry Kelly who is suffering from a sleeping disorder and a bad back. Nevertheless, this guy is as tough as they come on the Tour these days. Remember in the spring at the WGC Matchplay Championship, Kelly's second-round opponent was Vijay Singh. Kelly's take on the match was,"If the second-ranked player in the world can't beat me, then he has a problem. Kelly won the match 4 and 3. No. 12 on the list is Stewart Cink who has played well of late, but let us down at the Masters. No. 13 is Jeff Maggert. He will not participate because he is expecting twins. Also noteworthy is the absence of Retief Goosen (groin injury jet skiing, good job Retief, stick to golf!), Nick Price, Thomas Bjorn and Tom Watson are also missing from the field.
Besides my usual matchup bets, I have plunked down a few future bets or odds on who I think has an outside shot at winning the PGA Championship.
Aren't we tired of hearing the same thing, that Tiger, Ernie, Vijay and Mickelson are all favorites to win their next major? Or that you must hit it long and straight to win this week? Sure, we have some of them in matchups, but anyone chasing them in the odds pool is broke after the Masters.
Bare in mind, you must search the globe for the best odds and I will say this: No other sport has a more diverse spread of odds than in golf. If you are in search of that long shot that you have been waiting for you may find a decent price, but you may just find the overlay of the century. And folks,here it is:
I played Todd Hamilton to win at 110-1. You have got to be kidding me! Hamilton is still the quietest major winner of the season. In fact has has now won twice. If he were to win his second major, you can wrap up Player of the Year, no matter what Phil Mickelson does.
A very interesting tee pairing is that of Tiger Woods, Vijay Singh and John Daly. Bet against Daly if you can find any matchups. He couldn't handle Vijay at the Buick in the final round and he gave up as usual versus Tiger in the Battle of the Bridges. Daly is a talent no less, but this track demands a more accurate tee shot and once he gets out of contention, he throws in the towel big time and does not care what he shoots coming in.
Check back with us for my PGA Championship matchup wagers. Also, my members-only content contains two other future play with excellent value.
Editor's note: You can view Alf's additional future plays by purchasing his pick pack.
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