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Waste Management Phoenix Open

TPC Scottsdale – Par 71 – 7,266 yards

After an exciting week in San Diego for the Farmers Insurance Open, the PGA Tour heads to Arizona for one of my favorite early calendar events each year. The Wast Management Phoenix Open is one of the better events on the Tour with the theatre the back nine of this course can provide. The final four holes are a tremendous experience for both player and fan, as even casual golf bettors will recognize the amphitheatre setting the Par 3 16th hole brings for the four days.

Overall, TPC Scottsdale isn't the toughest venue out there as each of the past five winners since a 2014 “upgrade” have all finished with -14 or better scores. Furthermore, another thing that typically makes this event great is how close it is coming down the stretch on Sunday, as each of the past three winners have been decided by a playoff, and of the last 12 winners, 11 of them have come either in a playoff (six times) or a single shot (five times). That suggests that guys are never out of this on Sunday, and should you have some of your pre-tournament selections among the leaders on Sunday, tremendous hedging opportunities will pop up.

And after last week's selection on Hideki Matsuyama gave us hedging opportunities on Sunday, I'm hoping to close out this great month of picks with another three-pack of potential champions. For this entire month, I've had guys finish in the Top 5 or better, but with only Xander Schauffele's win under my belt, here's hoping one of these three names can go the distance for me this week.

Odds per -

Golfers to Watch

Bubba Watson (+4000) – Bubba is a guy in this field who's had plenty of success here without a win, as he's had three Top 5 finishes here since 2012, including finishing runner-up in back-to-back years (2014, 2015). Bubba has made the cut here in every year but one since 2009 (MC in 2017), and last year's 40th place finish was his worst result in that span when he made it to the weekend.

From a theatrical standpoint, you've got to figure that an “artist” like Bubba would thrive in the energetic atmosphere TPC Scottsdale always brings, and maybe 2019 is the year we see him climb to the top at this event. Recent form hasn't exactly been there for Bubba personally, but I don't think that's as big of a concern with Watson as it is with so many others on Tour. Bubba tends to play well at the courses he has played well at in the past, and there is no denying that Bubba hasn't had plenty of success in this event before.

Alex Noren (+6600) – Like Matsuyama's price at 50-1 last week, I was initially surprised to see someone of Noren's pedigree be listed this high here. Noren did miss the cut at the Farmers last week as a rough opening round of 76 did him in, but when he's playing his best, he's one of the top 25 players in the world, and he's not priced like it here. I'll gladly take the value though with Noren – who enters the week with ranked 21st in the world, as his skills should match up well for the test that TPC Scottsdale dishes out.

Noren is a guy who's got plenty of length off the tee to not have that as a concern, can score as well as anyone in this field (finished 21st on Tour in scoring average last year), and with a 21st place finish in his maiden voyage to this event a year ago, there won't be as many 'unknowns' for him to calculate this year.

Noren's putter is arguably the best in this entire field, and that's never a bad thing to back when you know the eventual winner is going to have to at least threaten shooting 20 under par for the tournament. As long as he can dial in his approach shots and avoid struggles around the green, Noren should be one of those names you see up there on the first page of the leaderboard on Sunday.

Patton Kizzire (+6600) – Kizzire stormed out of the gates at the beginning of the 2017-18 PGA Tour season, but really tailed off for the latter part of 2018. Yet, so far in this young 2018-19 season, we've already seen two Top 13 finishes by Kizzire in his last three starts, and the lack of length off the tee that can hurt him at other venues, shouldn't be an issue here.

Kizzire's strength comes from basically everything from the second shot in, and without question, TPC Scottsdale is a second-shot course that rewards guys who get hot with the putter. Kizzire's strong approach game is how he cashes those bigger checks when he does find himself in contention, he's improved on his finish at the Waste Management Open in each of the three years he's played it. Last year it was a 31st for Kizzire at this Tour stop, but that was also during a “cooling” off period for him after having won twice already.

Kizzire's recent great results suggest he's heading into Phoenix on the upswing in terms of current form, and if his pattern of continuing to improve on his finish here each year continues, a 66-1 price tag is a nice payday for a guy you expect to be at least in the Top 30 to start the weekend.

Waste Management Phoenix Open -
Jon Rahm 7/1
Justin Thomas 10/1
Hideki Matsuyama 12/1
Gary Woodland 18/1
Xander Schauffele 20/1
Rickie Fowler 22/1
Tony Finau 22/1
Webb Simpson 22/1
Phil Mickelson 28/1
Matt Kuchar 30/1
Cameron Smith 35/1
Adam Hadwin 40/1
Billy Horschel 45/1
Bubba Watson 45/1
Byeong Hun An 45/1
Cameron Champ 45/1
Chez Reavie 50/1
Alex Noren 55/1
Andrew Putnam 55/1
Daniel Berger 60/1
Keegan Bradley 60/1
Brandt Snedeke 70/1
Brendan Steele 70/1
Emiliano Grillo 70/1
Tyrrell Hatton 70/1
Aaron Wise 80/1
Abraham Ancer 80/1
Austin Cook 80/1
Luke List 80/1
Martin Laird 80/1
Ryan Palmer 80/1
Scott Piercy 80/1
Zach Johnson 80/1
Kevin Kisner 85/1
Beau Hossler 90/1
Lucas Glover 90/1
Si Woo Kim 90/1
Sungjae Im 90/1
J.B. Holmes 100/1
J.J. Spaun 100/1
Jason Kokrak 100/1
Kyle Stanley 100/1
Martin Kaymer 100/1
Patton Kizzire 100/1
Ryan Moore 100/1
C.T. Pan 125/1
Charley Hoffman 125/1
Chesson Hadley 125/1
Harris English 125/1
Jimmy Walker 125/1
Joaquin Niemann 125/1
Kevin Na 125/1
Kevin Tway 125/1
Nick Watney 125/1
Russell Knox 125/1
Steve Stricker 125/1
Bill Haas 150/1
Bud Cauley 150/1
Danny Lee 150/1
Harold Varner III 150/1
Jhonattan Vegas 150/1
Joel Dahmen 150/1
Peter Uihlein 150/1
Russell Henley 150/1
Vaughn Taylor 150/1
Brian Harman 175/1
Charl Schwartzel 175/1
Keith Mitchell 175/1
Kiradech Aphibarnrat 175/1
Richy Werenski 175/1
Stewart Cink 175/1
Anders Albertson 200/1
Andrew Landry 200/1
Brian Gay 200/1
Ollie Schniederjans 200/1
Patrick Rodgers 200/1
Rory Sabbatini 200/1
Sam Burns 200/1
Sam Ryder 200/1
Aaron Baddeley 250/1
Adam Long 250/1
Adam Schenk 250/1
Brandon Hagy 250/1
Brandon Harkins 250/1
Brian Stuard 250/1
Brice Garnett 250/1
Bronson Burgoon 250/1
Chris Kirk 250/1
Chris Stroud 250/1
Denny Mccarthy 250/1
Grayson Murray 250/1
Hunter Mahan 250/1
J.T. Poston 250/1
James Hahn 250/1
John Huh 250/1
Jonas Blixt 250/1
Kevin Streelman 250/1
Mackenzie Hughes 250/1
Michael Kim 250/1
Morgan Hoffmann 250/1
Robert Streb 250/1
Ryan Armour 250/1
Ryan Blaum 250/1
Sangmoon Bae 250/1
Satoshi Kodaira 250/1
Scott Stallings 250/1
Sean O'Hair 250/1
Sung Kang 250/1
Ted Potter Jr. 250/1
Trey Mullinax 250/1
Whee Kim 250/1
Matthew Wolff 300/1
Nick Taylor 300/1
Tom Hoge 350/1
Alex Cejka 500/1
Carlos Ortiz 500/1
Chase Wright 500/1
Cody Gribble 500/1
Colt Knost 500/1
Freddie Jacobson 500/1
Jim Herman 500/1
K.J. Choi 500/1
Kelly Kraft 500/1
Kenny Perry 500/1
Michael Hopper 500/1
Seamus Power 500/1
Tyler Duncan 500/1

Odds Subject to Change

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