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AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am

Pebble Beach – Par 72 – 6,800 yards
Spyglass Hill – Par 72 – 6,960 yards
Monterey Shore Course – Par 72 – 6, 850 yards

After Rickie Fowler got back in the winner's circle last week, the PGA Tour heads to Pebble Beach for the first of two stops the Tour will make at this venue this season. The second of those stops will be for the US Open in June, and with that being the more prestigious event, it would not be shocking to see some first timers (Tommy Fleetwood, Matthew Fitzpatrick) use this week to get acquainted with their surroundings rather than worry too much about their finishing position in this week's tournament.

The Pebble Beach Pro-am is one of the more grinding events to follow on Tour because of the “Am” part of the tournament, and the fact that three different courses are used the first three days. Every player will get a crack at each of the venues before the Top 60 and ties head to Pebble Beach for Sunday's final round.

Guys are going to have to go low, as nine of the past 10 winners here have finished with a -15 or better score, and most of that damage will likely come at Spyglass Hill and Monterey Shore early on. They are the easier courses by far, especially if the wind is down, but how guys separate themselves will be their play at Pebble for the two rounds they are there.

Historically, this event has had a mix of big names and relative unknowns win this event over the past 10+ years, as there are guys like Dustin Johnson, Phil Mickelson, and Brandt Snedeker who have all won this tournament twice since 2007, but other winners include names like Steve Lowery, D.A Points, Vaughn Taylor, and this year's defending champion Ted Potter Jr.

So it really can be a mixed bag here, but there are three more well-known names that I'm sticking with this week.

Odds per -

Golfers to Watch

Jordan Spieth (+1800) – Spieth is another big name past winner of this event having won the crown back in 2017. He's not had the typical Spieth-like results for nearly a calendar year now, but you've got to figure it's only a matter of time before things start to click for Jordan, and maybe it will take a return to a past site of glory for him to ignite his 2019 season.

Spieth has a few things going in his favor for this event though, with the most obvious one being the lack of length on any of the courses. Driving length really isn't a concern if you don't have it, nor a huge advantage if you do, as most of the strokes gained guys will have over the field will come on the greens and on the Par 4's.

Much of Spieth's rough 2018 campaign was due to a shaky putter, but at the Farmers he was 2nd in the field in Strokes Gained – Putting per green in regulation in the field. It was just the odd disastrous hole with a double or triple bogey that prevented him from finishing better than he did there, but if he can maintain that upward trend on the green, this week could be his week.

Speith has never finished worse than 22nd at this event, and with a 1st, 4th, and 7th on his resume all since 2014, +1800 is very easy to take.

Kevin Kisner (+6600) – Like Spieth, Kisner has been battling some inconsistency of late, although his three starts in 2019 have seen him improve his finishing position each time out. The best of those last week was a 26th at the Waste Management, and while he did miss the cut in this event a year ago, a 10th place finish here back in 2017 is a reason to believe in Kisner this week.

Kisner is another guy that can get streaky hot with the putter when he's going well, and he's just got to avoid those blowup holes as well. Kisner has made at least 15 birdies in each of his past four starts on Tour, but having at least one double bogey and six bogeys in his last three starts have prevented him from really being in contention. He's a more talented golfer when he puts it all together than many of the guys priced with better odds in this event, and a +6600 payday on Kisner does smell like value to me.

Pat Perez - (+12500) – Perez is another guy who has plenty of value in his price this week, as he too is a better golfer than quite a few guys ahead of him with slightly better odds. Recent form is definitely not there with Perez (MC, WD, MC), which is why he is priced this high, but having made the cut at this event in each of the past seven years, this is a tournament that he's had plenty of success at before.

Mixed in with those seven straight made cuts are finishes of 4th, 7th, and 14th in three of the past five years, and when he is at his best, the scoring really shows up in his around the green, putting, and approach numbers. Those are the three categories that are most critical to success here, and should you be looking at a longer shot this week, Perez definitely fits the bill.

AT&T Pebble Beach Pro-Am Odds - per
Dustin Johnson 5/1
Jason Day 9/1
Jordan Spieth 18/1
Patrick Cantlay 18/1
Matt Kuchar 20/1
Paul Casey 20/1
Tommy Fleetwood 22/1
Tony Finau 22/1
Patrick Reed 25/1
Phil Mickelson 25/1
Adam Scott 28/1
Chez Reavie 28/1
Branden Grace 33/1
Shane Lowry 33/1
Adam Hadwin 40/1
Brandt Snedeker 40/1
Matthew Fitzpatrick 40/1
Sungjae Im 40/1
Cameron Champ 50/1
Rafael Cabrera Bello 50/1
Russell Knox 50/1
Beau Hossler 66/1
J B Holmes 66/1
Jason Kokrak 66/1
Kevin Kisner 66/1
Scott Piercy 66/1
Andrew Putnam 80/1
Charley Hoffman 80/1
Chesson Hadley 80/1
Doug Ghim 80/1
Jimmy Walker 80/1
Lucas Glover 80/1
Martin Laird 80/1
Russell Henley 80/1
Ryan Palmer 80/1
Si Woo Kim 80/1
Austin Cook 100/1
Dylan Frittelli 100/1
Graeme McDowell 100/1
J J Spaun 100/1
Nick Watney 100/1
Trey Mullinax 100/1
Brian Gay 125/1
Corey Conners 125/1
Jim Furyk 125/1
Joel Dahmen 125/1
Kevin Streelman 125/1
Pat Perez 125/1
Talor Gooch 125/1
Ted Potter Jr 125/1

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