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Byron Nelson – Matchup Bets

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
4 minute read
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The PGA TOUR rolls into the AT&T Byron Nelson at Trinity Forest Golf Club in Dallas, Texas. It's the second straight season the pros peg it at Trinity Forest GC, five miles outside of Dallas. The links-style course designed by Ben Crenshaw and Bill Coore is a Par 71 setup at 7,550 yards. The event was previously played at TPC Four Seasons Resort and Club in nearby Irving, Tex.

PRIME MATCHUPS

Each week we'll take a look at the best round matchups to try and build up a nice bankroll.

Kevin Tway (+110) vs. Dylan Frittelli (-140): Tway is the underdog in this battle, but his solid work in the Driving Distance category should serve him well at the Par 71, 7,550-yard setup at Trinity Forest. He was ninth in this event last season, and he seems to be on the right track after a 36th at the Masters and a 13th-place finish in the partner event at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. The South African Frittelli is not long off the tee, not terribly accurate and he ranks 102nd in Greens In Regulation (GIR), while only posting mediocre numbers on Par 4 holes. He'll underachieve, letting Tway take him head-to-head.

Hideki Matsuyama (-105) vs. Brooks Koepka (-125): Matsuyama has quietly pieced it all together this season, making the cut in each of his 12 events this season, including three top-10 showings. Matsuyama played at Trinity Forest last season, and he had a strong tournament, finishing 16th. He fired an 8-under 63 in the second round, and ended up 12-under 272 for the weekend. He is playing with a lot of confidence, and his high ranks in Driving Distance (17th), GIR (34th), Scoring Average (18th) and Par 4 Scoring Average (44th) will serve him well against Koepka.

Ryan Palmer (-120) vs. Alexander Noren (-110): Palmer played his college golf at Texas A&M, so you can expect he'll be playing with a little extra giddy-up in his step in front of plenty of friends, family and fans deep in the heart of Texas. He is coming in with a lot of confidence, too, capturing the title with Jon Rahm in the partner event at the Zurich Classic of New Orleans. Noren is downright awful in GIR and Par 4 Scoring Average, two areas which will cause him to tumble down the leaderboard.

Sungjae Im (-135) vs. Kevin Na (+105): Im is humming along nicely in the Ball Striking (25th), GIR (44th) and Par 4 Scoring (3.98) categories, three areas of importance for success at Trinity Forest. The key to Im's game is his short game and work on the putting green. If those two areas are at least adequate, he could be in for quite a solid weekend. As far as Na, he is short off the tee, not terribly accurate and his GIR is rough. He also ranks 165th in Par 4 Scoring Average, so he checks off none of the boxes for success at the Nelson.

* It was a rough week at the Wells Fargo Championship, as I took it on the chin for a second straight week after a nice showing at the Masters. Look for a nice bounce-back this week.

Last event (Wells Fargo): 0-4 (-480)
This season: 11-18-2 (-890)

OTHER BETS

Top 20 Finish - Sungjae Im (+145): Im is playing with a lot of confidence, and not only do I like him to take care of Na in the head-to-head matchup (above), a Top 20 Finish should easily be within his grasp.

Top 20 Finish - Hideki Matsuyama (-170): Matsuyama is a perfect 12-for-12 this season making cuts, and he was 16th at this event last season when he posted a 12-under 272. He burned up the course with an 8-under 63 in the second, too.

Top 20 Finish - Ryan Moore (+160): Moore checks off all of the boxes for success at Trinity Forest. He ranks fifth on Tour at Driving Accuracy Percentage, he is 71st in GIR, a decent scrambler and a so-so putter. He was third in his most recent showing in the Lone Star State at the Valero Texas Open. Look for at least a Top 20, making him a nice value at this price.

Top 10 Finish - Hideki Matsuyama (+145): Matsuyama is a good bet at this price level, as he has a really good chance to win this tournament, too. A small-unit bet on Matsuyama to win (+1600) isn't a bad wager, either.

Last week: 1-2 (+225)
This season: 13-20 (-213)

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