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FedEx Cup Playoff Picks, Odds, Predictions

VegasInsider Staff
VegasInsider Staff Sports Betting Expert
6 minute read

2020 Fed Ex Cup Betting Preview

This wild and unforgettable PGA Tour season has finally reached the playoffs like seemingly every other sport that's going on has, and now we get a three-week sprint from the best players in the world, all trying to earn that $15 million payday at the end of it.

Odds to win 2020 FedEx Cup Playoffs
 
With the rule changes that you've got to win the Tour Championship to claim that $15 million prize now, it's all about just getting into that Top 30 in the points race to have a tee time in Atlanta in three weeks, but odds are up on who will claim that lucrative payday and it's worth discussing as there are some solid historical trends to consider.
 
So this piece is all about who will end up claiming that great prize in three weeks, as the discussion on the specific tournament this week (Northern Trust) can be found here (insert link). But before we get to the names that are worthy of a potential three-week investment, let's take a look back at how this title has been claimed in recent years. 

Fed Ex Cup Winners Historical Trends

  • 8 of the past 10 Fed Ex Cup winners started the playoffs inside the Top 20 in the points race
  • 4 of the past 5 Fed Ex Cup winners started the playoffs inside the Top 5 in the points race
  • 6 of the past 10 Fed Ex Cup winners had at least one victory during that season prior to playoffs
  • 5 of the past 10 Fed Ex Cup winners had at least two victories during that season prior to playoffs
  • Only 2 of the past 10 Fed Ex Cup winners won a Major that season
  • Three of the past four Fed Ex Cup winners have been non-US born players
  • The last 6 Fed Ex Cup winners made it to the Tour Championship the previous season
  • Only once has the player leading the points race entering the playoffs ended up winning the Fed Ex Cup (Jordan Spieth in 2015)
  • Each of the last 5 Fed Ex Cup winners were in the Top 10 in scoring average through the Wyndham Championship that season 
The 2019-2020 PGA Tour season has been far from ordinary so it will be interesting to see if any of these trends continue to hold true for this year. You can find the complete points race standings here to figure out which names do sit in that Top 5 and Top 20 spots respectively as well, but it's the winner's list – especially the multiple winners list that is intriguing.
 
Only four players managed multiple wins this year and it shouldn't be surprising that thanks to those victories, all of them are sitting very high in the standings right now. The multiple winners list consists of Justin Thomas, Collin Morikawa, Webb Simpson and Brendon Todd, that's it. Thomas, Morikawa, and Simpson are sitting 1-2-3 in the standings to start the playoffs, while Todd is a little further down in 9th. But historically speaking, all are sitting pretty to at worst make it to a tee time in Atlanta for the Tour Championship if they continue on with their solid play these next couple of weeks.
 
Two of these names are worth investing in the futures markets in my view, so let's stick to the usual weekly format and break down three names worthy of at least taking a look at for this betting opportunity.

Weekly Preview - The Northern Trust

FedEx Cup Playoff Future Picks 

Favorite - FedEx Cup Pick

Webb Simpson 12/1

Simpson fits all of those trends outside of being an American, and it's hard to argue that anyone has had a more consistent season then him from start to finish. Going back to last October when the season started, Simpson has seven Top 10's in official events, and that's with teeing it up only 12 events (not counting THE PLAYERS which was cancelled) and I'm pretty sure any guy on Tour would step over anyone to have that kind of year.
 
Simpson won twice, and had three other Top-3 finishes, and is coming in on good form after a T3 at the Wyndham Championship.
 
This week's event at TPC Boston is a track where bombers will have an advantage over Simpson, but he's really in no danger of not making it through to next week so that really isn't a huge negative for him here. But he's 2nd in scoring average (68.888) this year, behind only Bryson DeChambeau, and when you put it all together, a 12/1 price on Simpson to be $15 million dollars richer by mid-September is worth the risk. 

Mid-Range  - FedEx Cup Pick

Tyrrell Hatton 80/1

Hatton starts his playoff journey sitting in 19th spot in the standings (just inside that Top 20 threshold) an did so in just eight starts. The fewest starts that anyone ahead of him had this year was 11 (Dustin Johnson), so Hatton definitely made the most of his opportunities this year, and was a PGA Tour winner for the first time in his career when he won the Arnold Palmer Invitational right before the stoppage.
 
The Englishman fits the recent history of non-US players taking all those US funds overseas, and he also sits 10th on Tour in overall scoring average (69.625), but that's where those historical trends end for Hatton.
 
Statistically though, he's been a machine this year in that he enters the Northern Trust 4th in Strokes Gained: Approach for the year, 20th in SG: Putting, and 7th in SG: Total. None of that is surprising given he made it into the Top 20 on just eight starts, and if that form continues and he possible sneaks out a win in these first two playoff events (link to Northern Trust), 80-1 is a nice payday for bettors as well as Hatton himself. 

Longshot  - FedEx Cup Pick

Brendon Todd 100/1

Todd is far from a household name on Tour despite winning twice this season (in consecutive weeks), and with him sitting in 9th in the standings to start the playoffs, I just don't think he's getting the respect he deserves with this price.
 
Granted, with all the household names involved, he's an easy guy to overlook for this title, and sitting 26th in scoring average does bring some concerns, at least from the historical perspective. He can struggle off-the-tee and in the approach game which are more reasons to shy away from him, but he's all about accuracy and short game, and if those are your strengths, then playoff golf could be a spot where a guy like that excels.



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