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Musketa's Masters preview
 
 
 

Editor's note: Check back later this week for Alf Musketa's hot picks for the Masters or purchase his season pass!

Go to BoDog.com for all your bets for the 2005 Masters.  

If you are betting the 2005 Masters this year, you must read my handicapping preview.
Rain, rain and yes more rain is in the forecast for next week's Masters at Augusta National. The Georgia area has received plenty of rain this week so much so the Bell South Classic in Duluth GA, will not play it's first round until Saturday. With that fact, there are several players withdrawing from the Bell South event so that they can prepare for the Masters. Luke Donald (shoulder), Stuart Appleby, Chris DiMarco and Steve Flesch have backed out of the tournament because they do not wish to potentially play 36 holes on Monday and come to Augusta physically drained and miss a Masters practice day.

 

OK, so with rain soaking the golf course and more rain expected on Thursday and during the weekend of the Masters, how would we go about attacking the future book odds and head to head matchups? Let me say, not only has the rain taken away the rhythm of the PGA Tour but as a professional golf bettor, it has been erratic to validate the stats, handicap the fields and adjust the overall performances that have taken place this season. (But, if there is anyone out there that can dissect golf matchups it is yours truly.) What I mean is, there have been tournaments where if the conditions were different the results would have been as well. Adam Scott would not have hung on to twin the Nissan L.A. Open and David Toms probably would have met Tiger Woods in the final match of the WGC World Matchplay.

 

Rain and wet conditions do not always favor the biggest and longest hitters on tour namely, the "Big 4" of Tiger, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and Vijay Singh. On most courses yes, but at the Masters where the greens are very undulating and considered the fastest on Tour, soft fairways mean longer approach shots. So, the average length hitters with longer shots into the greens have a chance to hold the Augusta National greens. If the conditions are dry, the longer hitters hitting higher lofted clubs to hold the super firm and fast greens are at a distinct advantage. And they always have been at the Masters in those conditions, witnessed by high ball hitters Jack Nicklaus, Tiger and Vijay etc...

 

I firmly believe in the "horses for courses" theory. Last week where Fred Funk the most accurate driver on Tour, won the Players Championship at the TPC at Sawgrass where the rough was high and the fairways tight, made sense. Tiger won twice this year. Where, at the Buick Invitational at Torrey Pines and the Ford Championship at Doral, there Tiger can unleash his drives and find the ball any place on those courses and have a shot at the green. Also note, Mickelson won the FBR Phoenix Open in his backyard of Scottsdale and at Pebble Beach where he fired another opening round of 62.

 

Given the expected wet conditions, I think the field is brought together much closer.

 

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There are seven holes at Augusta National that are shaped from right to left, so those that have a natural draw or fade for a lefty (and yes, Mickelson worked very hard last year to hit a fade considering a draw was his natural shot, although this season he is trying to hit a cut off the tee almost all of the time) should fare well. Conversely, I think that players who hit the opposite way of a natural fade such as Jim Furyk, Chris DiMarco, Todd Hamilton, and Ryan Moore will fight the tee shot and not have a good position to attack the flag.

 

No player has ever won the Masters using a Belly Putter or a Long Putter. Augusta's greens are too fast and tricky to wield a heavy putter.

 

Putting has been an overrated stat at the Masters. At the Masters only Mike Weir (fourth) was in the Top 20 in putting that week in the last five years. Greens hit is still the No. 1 stat, 4 of the L5 Masters winner led in this category. Also, on the PGA Tour, 12 of the L24 winners were in the Top 10 in Greens in Regulation.

 

Here are my Top choices to win this year's Masters and notes on a few other players plus future book odds.

 

Ernie Els 6/1

 

I'm convinced Els would have won the Masters last year in a playoff. Mickelson got a perfect read on his final putt from DiMarco and stole the green jacket. Els has the best record of anyone over the last five years at the Masters. He was second last year, then T6, T5, T6 and second again in 2000. Did you catch the Tavistock Cup? Els is in top form with the putter. He should now be rested and ready after the Euro events.

 

Tiger Woods 5/2

 

The skinny on Tiger is, he is bashing a new proto-type golf ball. The Nike "ONE" Platinum ball, he is crushing has been in the hands of very few players and Tiger says he is definitely longer and holding the greens well. (Geez, that's all the Tour needs.) Let me put it this way. If the Tour was still playing wooden persimmon clubs and balata balls, Tiger would win twice as many tournaments than he already has. His talent is second to none and if the track is dry and fast he should win and at worst finish in the Top 3 every year at the Masters. Having said that, I believe his swing is not as good as in 2000, nor will he ever win three majors in a season again. The competition with the current equipment and conditioning is much closer than ever before. Besides, 5/2 is not worth it.

 

Vijay Singh 7/1

 

Sure, he missed a three footer in a playoff and ballooned one into the pond at the Bay Hill. Realistically, he should have won those events and then he'd have three wins this year and would be the solid No. 1 in the World Rankings and chalk to win the Masters. (Nah, Tiger will always be the favorite! ) His putting is much improved. Of the "Big 4" Vijay is the only one to stand up to Tiger and beat him head to head. Now, that would be a great Masters.

 

Phil Mickelson 5/1

 

I believe Mickelson has played the best golf of any player in the world this season to date. His super low rounds 60, 62 this year and the 59 he shot late last season in the Grand Slam event are now legendary. Along with his aggressive play he has managed his game and improved from tee to green. Sure, he took allot grief from the media and peers for switching to Callaway clubs prior to the Ryder Cup, but now those sticks are paying off, especially the new Tour X irons and FT3 Fusion driver which the public has not seen nor cannot buy yet. Lefty has in my opinion the best short game to tackle Augusta. The touch that is required around the greens, could win him a few green jackets.

 

Davis Love III 25/1

 

Davis has not shown much game in the last year or so, but I did see spark of the old form with a fine 66 in round two at TPC. He might still be considered the best driver on Tour.

 

Paul Casey 75/1

 

Now, here is a price worth taking. Casey is known for his "American bashing", but he has game to possibly win at Augusta. He is extremely long off the tee, hits a draw and is a streaky putter with a win under his belt this season on the Euro Tour. He had a T16 finish at Doral.

 

Lee Westwood 60/1

 

You must consider this Englishman who is hot at moment. His ball striking at The Players Championship was the best form I've ever seen from this journeyman golfer. I saw him live and in person at the Matchplay Championship at "Lake LaCosta" and was impressed with his game and he is in the best shape of his life working out regularly.

 

The following is a list of players on my "Go Against List" for head to head matchups and would not consider them to bet to win this event.

 

Fred Funk 60/1

 

Freddy just won $1.4 million, a five year exemption and is celebrating like it is 1999. His game doesn't suit Augusta at all. He is too short of the tee and does not hit the ball high enough, although wet conditions may help, he is too far away from taking advantage of the par 5's to have any shot.

 

Mike Weir 15/1

 

Yes, we love Weir, but lets face it, he made every crucial putt he had down the stretch in 2003 on Sunday at the Masters. Sure it doesn't get much better than that. But, in 2005 he has struggled with his game, he is skiing in Utah too much and we just do not see any flair in his golf. Case in point, his first round loss to Kirk Triplett in the Matchplay event as a -210 favorite.

 

John Daly 80/1

 

Daly has the talent and game to win at the Masters. I thought this major would be the easiest for him to win, not the PGA or British Open that he already has in his pocket. His short game is so very underrated. But, he also has the biggest screw-up factor on the PGA Tour today. He can make an 11 or 12 on any given hole and if he doesn't like how his round is going he will throw in the towel and your bet is lost.

 

The list goes on with more go-against players:

 

Jonathan Kaye

Stephen Ames

Steve Flesch

Bernhard Langer

Shaun Micheel

Ryan Moore

Todd Hamilton

Rich Beem

Justin Leonard

Nick Price

Jesper Parnevik

 

Check back with us later in the week for my special Master Matchup Selection Wagers with analysis..........Alf

  
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