Editor's note: Alf Musketa (44-29, +1,060!) is in the midst of another winning golf year. He will have picks and analysis galore for next week's British Open, but you can go ahead and sign up for his entire season package at this special rate!
Place all your British Open wagers at Parlaybook.com.
What will it take to conquer St. Andrews this year? The wide open pot bunkered Old Course favors good ball strikers who bring their "A" game.
The British Open contested at the Home of Golf at St. Andrews, Scotland will play to a par of 72 and measuring 7,279 yards. After using the internet for weather forecasts for the U.S. Open at Pinehurst, which turned out to be 100% incorrect, I will not speculate or attempt to gage the weather for next week. Usual Open conditions apply.
While the Masters and U.S. Open needed a superb short game to tame the fast and undulating greens of Augusta and Pinehurst, for this major look for players that excel in stats of Total Driving and Ball Striking. (Ball Striking is combing a player's rank in Greens in Regulation (GIR) and Total Driving)
Recall, the 2000 British Open where Tiger Woods was at the pinnacle of his game and the golf world as well. He masterfully negotiated around the Old Course hitting it long and straight and NEVER managed to find one bunker all week! Tiger won hitting a variety of shots low and high to the complex double greens. This kind of play will always fare well on links type courses.
If you do not have a solid tee to green game, this track and conditions will expose your poor ball striking.
There are definitely good wind players and bad wind players. Go against weaker hitting drivers such as Chris DiMarco, Todd Hamilton, Jim Furyk and Mike Weir....look to play against them in matchups. They have poor records in the Open and their game does not suit cold, windy, drizzly inclement weather and tough conditions that are part of British Open golf. Todd Hamilton will never win another major let alone another PGA Tour stop. He got lucky winning the Open at Royal Troon. His short game and his Sonartec utility wood bailed him out. He ranks 151st in Ball Striking. Chris DiMarco has missed the cut in two of the last five Opens and was T63 last year.
The number 3,4 and 5 ranked players in the world, Ernie Els, Phil Mickelson and the Goose are playing at the Barclay's Scottish Open. This is an excellent tune up for the British Open to get acclimatized etc...it sure has helped Open winners from the past, Mark O'Meara and Tiger Woods.
Alf's picks to win the 2005 British Open:
Kenny Perry 35-1.....no one, and I mean no one has displayed a better Ball Striking year than Kenny Perry. He is No.# 1 by a landslide in both Total Driving and the Ball Striking categories. His off the tee game is so strong that every week he is a threat to win. He finished T16 at Royal Troon and T8 in 2003.
Lee Westwood 50-1....hit the ball very solid at Pinehurst, was in contention and then made a couple of mental mistakes, do not see that happening at the Home of Golf for the Englishman. Westwood finished very well T4 in last year's British Open.
Ernie Els 8-1......the Big Easy was 2nd in '04, T18 in '03, he won at Muirfield in 2002, T3 in '01 and 2nd to Tiger in 2000. Can't get much better than that. After a good rest following the U.S. Open, Ernie should be ready and focused to capture his next major.
Colin Montgomerie 80-1 ..yes, I can hear the critics saying, he does not hit it far enough to win this Open. Well, on Sunday at Pinehurst he had the third longest drive of the day on the most difficult hole, No. 16 where I was a Marshall and stood 15 feet from his blast. Sure, Monty got a generous roll and that type of shot is what you need to tame this track. He has played extremely well over-all in 2005 and the belly putter is working nicely. Yes, a Scot can win in Scotland.
Tiger Woods 3-1.....you didn't think I'd leave him out did ya? In my opinion he is not close to his 2000 form. He is hitting the driver much better and longer than earlier in the year. At the U.S. Open, where I followed him for 9 holes, his swing and ball striking seemed to go well together. And despite hitting only 50% of the fairways, he led the field in GIR! So, his irons are pretty solid too. If he putted half way decent at Pinehurst he would have won by five shots! Tiger will be on the leaderboard just like last week in Chicago at the Cialis Western Open. However, there is no value betting Tiger to win at 3 to1.
Sleepers
Ben Curtis 500-1.....have to give him a look, he played very well last week finishing alone in 3rd. Yes, he scraped it along nicely at Royal St. Georges to win the British Open in 2004. Most of all I like his easy going demeanor and rhythmic swing.
Graeme McDowell 150-1....from Northern Ireland, this pint sized NCAA Player of the Year (Alabama) in 2002, hits a stingy draw with the best of them. He holds the course record of 62 at St. Andrews which he fired during last year's Dunhill Links Championship.
Tom Lehman 75-1....won the British Open in 1996, his only major, should bring back fond swing thoughts. Tom hits a consistent draw off the tee and would dearly love to win the Open in front of the European fans as a preview of what is to come as Captain of the Ryder Cup played in Ireland 2006.
Check back next week for my special British Open matchup wagers.
