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Musketa: U.S. Open preview
June 8, 2006
By Alf Musketa
VegasInsider.com
T his is a fact. The four Majors presents the best chance during the golf betting season to cash in.
If you are betting golf matchups like I specialize in, the U.S. Open and the Masters are smorgasbords for even the novice handicapper. The sportsbooks and linesmakers will get plenty of two-way action and will post a plethora of matchups for the casual fan to wager on and watch on TV. Let the feast begin. Back in April, I played nine matchups in the Masters and went 8-0-1.
Plain and simple, there are many more matchups to pick from during the Majors than at any time of the year. You'll find Phil Mickelson matched against 4,5 maybe 6 different golfers, but this week for the Barclays Classic most sportsbooks only have him vs. Adam Scott or Retief Goosen.
The 2006 U.S. Open is held at Winged Foot's West Course in Mamaroneck, NY.... playing to a par 70 at 7,264 yards and features the longest par four in U.S. Open history the 9th hole of 514 yards.
Note; there are no less than 8 holes which favor a draw (right to left) off the tee vs. only 3 holes that move left to right requiring a fade.
Your main handicapping focus should always be on current form, but next is the type of course and tournament facing the players that week. And as always the USGA has set up a very difficult Open track, but this year with a twist. "Graduated Rough" is the theme at Winged Foot this year. They have set up the fairways tight at 26-28 yards and then gradually increased the rough thickness the more off line and farther away from the fairway you have hit your tee shots. I think some of the bombers off the tee will be penalized more so than in the past. The USGA also cut down trees to make room for this rough and moved the spectator ropes back away from the rough.
Without any rain during the week, I believe Even par will be a good score to get into a playoff, otherwise the best players in the world will conquer any course and -7 under par could win. The last major held at Winged Foot was the famous "Rainbow Classic" when Davis Love III fired three rounds in the 60's and finished at -11 in the 1997 PGA Championship. I don't think we'll get to double digits in a U.S. Open anytime soon.
Short hitters have a legitimate chance this week. At 7,264 yards accurate ball strikers like Fred Funk may sneak up the leaderboard. I think hitting a 6 or 7 iron from the short grass will be better off than a wedge from deep rough. "Flog" may not apply.
I am going to concentrate more on straight hitting drivers than in the past and look to bet against the wild ones. You may have noticed on Tour there has been an influx of younger talent winning and producing solid consistent results. Next week we'll find them in matchups and exploit the linesmakers matchups.
Here are some of the players I like to win the U.S. Open and hope to find them in matchups as well.
Tiger is the mystery golfer this week. He hasn't played a tournament since the Masters. If he wins, surely he'll dedicate the victory to his father that recently passed away. If he plays poorly, the distractions and layoff will be the excuse. I see Tiger putting forth an emotional effort, but I do not like his chances this week given the conditions. To have a shot at winning he'll have to put the driver in the bag for many tee shots and that may not be possible.
For some reason the New York area fans love Mickelson. Someone please tell me why. He does tend to feed off of this as we saw at Bethpage Black and certainly in Phoenix. With Phil's short game he may keep the major streak alive. We probably won't see the two-driver tandem we saw at the Masters, but if he can find the fairway, he has played plenty of late, that the rest of his game is sharp enough to win.
Mr. Money in the bank, withdrew from the Exelon skins game on Monday sighting a back injury and sat out this week's Barclay Classic as well. Furyk is the perfect profile for a U.S. Open winner. He ranks fourth on Tour in driving accuracy and will draw and fade the ball with the best in the world.
Tim Clark 40/1
"The Penguin" is in my opinion the most underrated player in the game today. Recall, making a couple of key putts and he could have been in a playoff with Mickelson at the Masters. Very straight off the tee and a solid iron game will have Clark in position come Sunday. Last year he finished tied for third at Pinehurst.
Oberholser is having his best year ever. His deadly approach shots and putting touch will play well at the U.S. Open much like last year finishing in the Top 10.
Ames won The Players Championship earlier this year, which is the ultimate target golf course with the best field of the year that the PGA Tour plays. Since winning that huge event, he has been able to pick his tournaments and rest more concentrating on the majors.
More potential winners and Sleepers:
Check back with us next week for my SPECIAL U.S. Open Pick Pack for all my matchup selections with analysis.
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