If there is one thing I have learned from betting U.S. Open's in the past is that the winner comes from the player that makes the least amount of mistakes on a very tough golf course. This year tournament takes place at the Oakmont Country Club.
Surely, you remember Phil Mickelson's disastrous tee shot on the 18th hole last year at Winged Foot. That mistake, plus Monty's chunked approach shot, led to Geoff Ogilvy winning the Championship. Yes, Ogilvy did play well down the stretch and is a solid player, but cannot see him defending the title.
With six inch deep primary rough and 13-14 stimpmeter greens on what is expected to be a weather dry and fast track all week, we are looking for players that can hit the fairways and make key putts inside 10 feet.
There are already talks of Oakmont CC, just outside of Pittsburgh, PA to be the toughest test of all time. The par 70 layout can play to two different lengths 7,186 and 7,230 yards, depending on the tee boxes used on 8, 10 and 12. The 8th can stretch the par 3 hole to 288 yards! The Members of Oakmont CC are quoted as saying, “We want the world to see what we put up with everyday." NBC host and analyst Johnny Miller says, "You can hold the U.S. Open there every week. It never gets caught with it's pants down."
I usually do not believe all the early U.S. Open hype, but when Ogilvy played a practice round last week, he said he shot an 85 (don’t buy that) with six lost balls. Six lost balls is the quote that is scary, meaning they were lost in the thick rough, because there are basically no trees left on the golf course after a restoration to the original design has taken place.
Oakmont famous for it's Church Pew bunker, plays fairly straight off the tee, but very tight. Tiger Woods played a practice round and only hit driver four times.
Again I will emphasize, find players who make little mistakes. This type of tournament is a case for survival and not an aggressive style of play wins.
You may ask if the results from the last U.S. Open played at Oakmont in 1994 is significant? I don't think so because 13 years ago there were still many players using persimmon woods and 3-piece golf balls. The course had tree lined fairways and was much shorter. However, experience is always a factor in majors.
Here are some future book odds with my thoughts, as well as a few sleepers that can win.
Tiger Woods 2/1
Missed the cut last year at the U.S. Open and we all know that was because his father just past away. He did win the next two majors after that. Tiger's recent practice round, where he hit many Stingers to put the ball in play, is in my opinion the right way to play this track and once Tiger gets in the fairway he is difficult to catch. This is the same strategy that won the British Open for him last year at Royal Liverpool.
If you do not bet on Tiger in the future book, in matchups I'm willing to lay -230 on him against anyone but Mickelson. There should also be some interesting props involving Tiger. I like Tiger to finish in the Top 4. Shop around.
Phil Mickelson 8/1
Can he be healthy enough to win after withdrawing from the Memorial with a wrist injury? He skipped the St. Jude Memphis event to rest and normally he likes to play the week before a major. Even though I love what he has done to his game working with new Coach Butch Harmon, he is a big question mark and I think we'll stay away from Phil this week.
Jim Furyk 15/1
Mr. Money in the Bank is the sentimental favorite to win this week. A native of Pittsburgh and a U.S. Open Champion has the tools, good driving accuracy and a sharp putter.
Zach Johnson 40/1
The Masters Champ has already won since Augusta. Really, he beat Ryuji Imada on the first playoff hole at the AT&T Classic. Ok, so this event isn't in the State of Georgia where he has won all of his PGA Tour victories, but Zach is as straight as they come and is putting very well ranking 18th on Tour in putts per round.
Stewart Cink 45/1
Cink has excellent current form right now and has knocked on the door of many majors and come away empty. He's due, he ranks 22nd in the World and has made 9 of 11 cuts in U.S. Open's.
Ryan Moore 125/1
He can win this tournament based on his fine play at the Memorial, making five birdies in six holes late, he putts extremely well under pressure. His hand is healthy and he got rid of the ridiculous pre-set swing motion he was experimenting with earlier in the season.
Sleepers
KJ Choi 80/1
How can we say he is a sleeper after winning two weeks ago in Jack's Memorial Tournament? At 80/1+ anyone is a serious sleeper. This guys hits a dead straight pull with his new Nike Sumo Square headed driver and made some clutch putts on the back nine on Sunday.
Colin Montgomerie 110/1
Yes, I like Monty's chances for two reasons. First, in 1994 at Oakmont he was in the famous Monday 18 hole three way playoff versus Ernie Els and Loren Roberts, which Els won. (I have it on tape and Roberts should have won, the "Boss of the Moss" putted horribly in the last few holes.) Secondly, he switched last week in the Celtic Manor Wales event on the European Tour to a new heavier putter and shot a closing round 63!
Rod Pampling 100/1
Pampling had the lead and blew it in the final 4 holes of the Memorial, but he has showed signs of improved play and always seems to be consistently on the leaderboard.
Players to avoid in matchups at the U.S. Open.
Ernie Els.........hasn't won on the PGA Tour since his knee operation and cannot get through the ball, period. His putting is saving him from missing cuts.
Rory Sabbatini......big mouth, big game and chasing Tiger, but not on a tight track like this he ranks 128th in driving accuracy.
Lucas Glover.......wild swinger of the driver and will not throttle it back when needed.
Charles Howell III......CH3 has been brutal the past 3 months after being on fire early in the year and winning the Nissan Open at Riviera. He embarrassingly withdrew after shooting a third round 80 at the Memorial. When he goes bad, he goes bad.
Check back with us throughout U.S. Open week for my Matchups Selections and possible prop wagers. Click to win!
