Editor's Note: Be sure to pick up Alf Musketa's Majors Package by clicking here!
In this 2008 Masters Handicapping Preview I'll analyze some of the players I think can win this year and look at some of the sleepers or long-shots as well.
Few changes have been made to Augusta National. Several trees removed from hole No. 11 is the biggest change. Greens No. 7 and 9 have been enlarged to add new pin locations and pine straw added to holes 15 and 17. Tiger Woods on his web site tigerwoods.com has said he will not visit Augusta until Monday, "no need to, not many changes this year."
OK, let's speculate if Tiger Woods can win the Masters and then the Grand Slam? Maybe.
What scares me is that two and half weeks ago at the WGC-CA Championship at Doral, he played his worst of the season, had four harsh lip outs, actually 11 putts lipped out in all, missed two putts inside three feet, which you never see and he finished two shots from getting into a playoff with Geoff Ogilvy.
In other words, he could have won again, kept the PGA Tour streak alive at six and headed into the Masters having won nine events world wide....with his "B" game. We cannot envision him coming to Augusta without his "A" game. He has had coach Hank Haney with in at Isleworth all this week.
The current odds for Tiger Woods to win, at Sportsbook.com are 7 to 5. Worth a gamble? At the pace he is winning in 2008, why not. Sure, several players will be in the hunt the first two days, but if Tiger gets the lead or a share of the lead by Saturday afternoon, this tournament is over.
There are other ways to make money betting on Tiger. I recommend playing the "Field" prop early and then once Tiger is close to the lead bet him to win. Or simply wait for him to post a good round and lay a small price then.
In tournament matchups, unfortunately, Tiger has risen to the -350 to -400 range against anyone including Phil Mickelson. I like to play Tiger in a matchup at -225 or less, if he has some ground to make up on an opponent, great, or in round by matchups the price is not nearly as steep.
Phil Mickelson 8/1
When Phil won his last Masters two years ago ( and FYI Tiger has not won the Masters since 2005) he was razor sharp winning the Bell South Classic at -28 under par. This week as of this writing he is 8 shots off the lead, but we like what we see from Phil. The short game is sharp, but his putting could use some work and if not for a couple of errant shots he would be -8 instead of -4. Dave Pelz is working for Phil, has gone ahead to Augusta and is gauging greens with the Pelz meter that shows greens speeds and most notably the roll out speeds. If anyone can challenge Tiger it is Phil, just like he did beating him head to head at the Deutsche Bank Championship.
Adam Scott 25/1
Scott fired a flawless course record of 63 on Thursday at Redstone GC. His putting set-up and the work with coach Butch Harmon looks so much better. At 25/1 he is worth a look and many sportsbooks have Top 5 props where you get 1/4 of the odds price....lets say at 6 or 6.25/1 to finish in the Top five, Scott can do it.
Padraig Harrington 25/1
Padraig skipped the rich WGC event to play two lesser events and progress his game to peak in three weeks for the Masters. Padraig ranks No.#1 on tour in Putts per Round at 26.67. He won a major, the British Open, his first major, now he has a taste and is focusing on them.
Geoff Ogilvy 30/1
Ogilvy won the star-studded WGC-CA event and it really was the best field of the season. But, what we noticed most, was that he was paired with Tiger for the first two rounds and beat him both days and led the tournament wire to wire. He is sneaky long and a solid putter.
Steve Stricker 60/1
How is the No. #4 ranked player in the World 60 to 1? Stricker has the game to win at the Masters. Yes, he is not long off the tee and we have seen lately that length is good but the shorter hitters are finding ways to try and tame Augusta by spinning and hitting their wedges close, ala last year's winner Zach Johnson and 2003 winner Mike Weir. Stricker is a fabulous putter and make birdies in bunches at 60/1 you almost have to label him a sleeper.
Sleepers
Hunter Mahan 80/1
I had another chance to watch Mahan play up close, live and in person at the WGC Matchplay event......and this guy is just one fine driver of the golf ball. Long and straight and always near the top of the Total Driving category. The tee shot at Augusta is crucial on the par fives to have any chance of breaking par.
Aaron Baddeley 80/1
Badds has in my opinion the best swing in the game today. His work of the"Stack and Tilt" swing is paying dividends. He rarely misses a fairway or green and we love his "Point and Shoot" putting style. He is looking to improve greatly on his T52 finish of last season.
Sean O'Hair 125/1
O'Hair won the PODS Championship near Tampa Bay FL, and he has what I would call a good game for Augusta. Drives the ball long, hits his irons very high, which is key at the Masters to combat and hold the super fast greens and he is a deadly putter when it counts. He will win a major some day.
Players to stay away from this year at the Masters:
Ernie Els ........The Big Easy should be re-nick named the Big Baby. This guy plays all over the world and schedules many of his PGA Tour events to avoid conflict or playing when Tiger Woods tees it up. He has been fighting a virus the past month and has pulled out of two tournaments most notably the Shell Houston Open. So, coming into the Masters he has not played since March 23rd and there he was seen working on the range with swing coach Butch Harmon for the first time. Not a good sign.
JB Holmes........he should have beaten Tiger in the first round of the WGC Matchplay event and let him get away late , he was brilliant at the Tavistock Cup, but this is his first time at the Masters and first-timers do not fair well, plus he hits a consistent cut/fade and fights to hit a draw which you need on many holes at Augusta.
Michael Campbell......the 2005 US Open winner has made one cut in the past 13 months!....and in six trips to the Masters he has never made the cut.
Check back with us throughout the week for my Masters Matchups and Majors Package as well as potential props and Round by Round Matchups.
