This is the second National Championship held at the Black Course since 2002 and if the first outing was any indication, we should see another rowdy environment from the beloved New York fans. Players called it more of a football atmosphere than a golf atmosphere back then and this year will be no different. The only thing holding the gallery back may be the weather as the forecast is not looking good but more on that later.
It is no surprise that Tiger Woods comes in as the odds on favorite at Bethpage as he is listed at 5/2 to bring home the trophy for a second straight season. No one can forget his incredible performance last year at Torrey Pines when he defeated Rocco Mediate in a Monday playoff on basically one knee. History is not on his side however as there has not been back-to-back open winners since 1989 when Curtis Strange won consecutive titles at The Country Club in Brookline and Oak Hill in Pittsford.
The one player the fans love in New York is Phil Mickelson. He is listed as the second choice at 7/1 which may seem low to some based on what is going on off the course. He has not played much due to his wife’s illness and this is going to be a huge mental challenge for him. The gallery embraced him seven years ago and it is going to be even more so this year. He is tied with Sam Snead for the most runner-up finishes in U.S. Open history without ever winning (four).
Sergio Garcia is listed at 25/1 and it will be interesting to see how the fans react to “El Nino.” In 2002, the crowd got on him at almost every opportunity when he was a waggle machine. He did not take it well, it got into his head and eventually he snapped by giving a fan the finger of choice. The “Greatest Player to Never Win a Major” has matured and the waggle has long since disappeared but the fans won’t forget and will still let him know about it.
Of the eight players who have odds of 25/1 or better, three are European (Garcia, Paul Casey and Padraig Harrington). A player from across the pond has not won our championship since 1970 when Tony Jacklin won at Hazeltine National Golf Club in Chaska. There have been some close calls along the way but these U.S. Open courses just do not set up well for their type of play. The best chance this year could be Casey who is third in the OWGR and has the power and accuracy to tackle Bethpage. His best finish was a T10 in 2007.
Mother Nature is going to play a big part in how this Championship plays out. Rain is in the forecast everyday and we are not talking some drizzly showers. Huge amounts of rainfall are expected in the first two days, including overnight on Thursday, which will soften up the course even more. The area has seen record rainfall this month already. This course was setup well for the bombers of the ball but now the shorter players are back in the mix.
Hitting long irons into hard greens is a recipe for disaster but now with the greens being able to hold some of these shots, everyone is going to be given a better shot. Players such as David Toms (50/1), Luke Donald (60/1) and Tim Clark (70/1) who pride themselves in total driving (distance and accuracy) cannot be left out of the hunt. It is hard to go against Tiger however as he looks like he is back and better than ever following that victory at the Memorial with incredible shorts into the green on 17 and 18. He won here in 2002 and could bring it home again.
