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Posted 05/02/2008 at 01:45 PM
2008 Kentucky Derby
The main handicapping factor with horse racing in general these days is to figure out the correlation of the new synthetic race surfaces and the old dirt tracks. Nonetheless, the Derby is a clouded picture with 20 horses entered every year now.
Here are my 2008 Kentucky Derby selections in order:
Colonel John Post 10
"Colonel John Marches On" will be the song if he wins and gets to the Preakness. Steady, consistent, has the dosage, love Nakatani, the Beyers are tricky because from the new surface at Santa Anita, they still haven't made enough figures to really correlate them with the main dirt tracks in my opinion, especially for fast improving 3 year olds. Beyer himself says the pace is slow, the figures are slow and they need to adjust the poly tracks. Well, if Colonel John wins the Derby, I guarantee they will make major adjustments. I used to make my own speed figures, (too busy betting sports obviously) but still look at some of the major races and calculate a mid quarter time and a late quarter time and adjust using the DRF variants. If you look at the fractions of Colonel John, he ran extremely fast in the last two furlongs of the Santa Anita Derby and the video has him flying home on a surface that is deep and slow. Also, his bullet workout on the dirt at Churchill is a major sign that he is ready. Recall, Street Sense, Barbaro, Real Quiet, Silver Charm and many more Derby winners were telling us that they wanted to run with that sharp workout. And, I am still a big believer in Dual Qualifiers.
Pyro Post 9
If you throw out the Blue Grass race you have to like his chances. Other than the Blue Grass he has beaten all comers except War Pass. If War Pass were in this race, after watching the Wood Memorial, I would make a hefty wager on War Pass, who gutted out a speed duel, ran against a bias, set all the fractions, the blistering rabbit pace and lost to a horse that had a perfect trip at the wire. Pryo will be there if the pace is hot.
Court Vision Post 4
We have the best jockey in the game today (Garrett Gomez) on Court Vision since Jerry Bailey retired. He gets blinkers for the first time to keep him charging down the lane at the finish. He had a rough trip in the Wood and did not have momentum on the far turn. Nice bullet at Churchill on the 17th.
Tale of Ekati Post 2
This horse was my Breeders Juvie pick and he could not handle War Pass, Pyro and Court Vision. Like many key races the Breeders Cup Juvenile in my opinion is the key race for this Derby, and we have seen several horses come home 1,2,3, from one prep race as well.
Oh, yeah, all four of these horses are Dual Qualifiers and the only Dual Qualifiers in the race.
My Bets........Colonel John.....across the board.......box the four selections in a tri box and a super box.
Big Brown............ah yes, the Derby favorite, I have bet only one Derby favorite in 25 years and that was Fusiachi Pegasus a freak of a horse and blazing fast.....and then bet him 3x as large in the Preakness and he was left at the gate and rushed to the front from a poor ride from Kent Desormeaux. The worst Triple Crown ride of all time was with Kent Desormeaux aboard Real Quiet in the Belmont Stakes to win the Triple Crown. He moved him half a mile too early because he was very anxious and he simply cannot rate a horse. I don't think too many great horses could win from post 20, let alone one ridden from Desormeaux. Big Brown has had only three races and only one Derby horse has won with less than five, and he has not raced in 34 days. Sure, he could win if the pace is moderate and none of the inside speed gets in front of him.
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