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Posted 07/20/2007 at 05:20 PM
Betting Superbowl Props:
Let's take a look at some current NFL props in the midst of the long summer days of baseball. Currently I see about 9 teams worth considering and in my opinion have value to the bettor. Before you read on, please realize that I have not included the Patriots, Colts, and Chargers to wager on. In short I see the most value in the NFC, simply for the fact the NFC is 2-8 L10 Superbowls and the betting public "knows" the NFC stinks. Sure, I would have to agree that over the course of a season NE, IND, and SD are the best teams in the league, but let's keep in mind that the Superbowl is ONE game.
So half the battle of these props is getting to the Superbowl. Once a team is Superbowl bound it can give the bettor a nice setup for a hedge bet.
All Odds to win SuperBowl XLII are from Sportsbook.com
http://www.vegasinsider.com/nfl/odds/futures/#1684
NFC teams: Again, the value with the paybacks is in the NFC in my opinion.
Chicago Bears: Opened at 6/1, currently taking back 8/1. I am not impressed with this team personally but the best in the business have the Bears favored to win the NFC. Chicago still has a bad ass defense and historically speaking many teams have a nitch in the NFL to get back to the big show in back to back years. The Packers, Dolphins, Steelers, 49ers, Bills, Cowboys, and Patriots have all been to two consecutive Superbowls or more. Just something to keep in mind.
New Orleans Saints: Opened at 12/1, currently at 12/1. If HC Sean Payton can find a way to get home field advantage throughout the playoffs this team has the potential to win the NFC and head to Glendale in Feb. Saints dominated the stats in fourteen of their eighteen games last year with Drew Brees at helm.
Seattle Seahawks: Opened at 15/1, currently at 15/1. No flare, but the Seahawks have gone to the Postseason the last 4 years, lost a tough playoff game @ the Bears (24-27) last year, lost a tough Superbowl two years ago, and have a coach in Mike Holmgreen who is well seasoned for Postseason action. This team has got the Superbowl losers jinx off their back and should have no problem winning the NFC West.
Dallas Cowboys: Opened at 18/1, currently at 20/1. Their Superbowl tradition speaks for itself and with the most prominent team owner in the business up to his usual aggressive transaction ways in the free agent market, the Cowboys appear to primed for the Postseason and maybe more. Cowboys lost a heartbreaker in the Playoffs last year in Seattle and if Tony Romo can put his emotions behind him, TO will give him a shot right back where he left off.
AFC Teams: Expect the Chargers, Colts, or Pats to win the AFC but let's keep in mind there is another hungry team on the prowl that has the talent to stir things up.
Cincinnati Bengals: Opened at 12/1, currently at 15/1. If this team can stay out of jail, they have the offensive talent to contend with anyone in the league on any field. There schedule has four hard games (Bal, @ Bal, NE, and @ Sea), other than that their schedule is very favorable.
Longshots: These teams should be at least wildcard teams and with a little bit of luck could make some noise!
Philadelphia Eagles: Opened at 20/1, currently at 25/1. Another team that on paper has the talent to find their way to the playoffs. That being said combined with the fact that they play in the NFC give them a longshot to get back to the big show as they did three seasons ago. Andy Reid proved he still can get the job done in the postseason after beating the Giants and losing a tough game at New Orleans.
Jaxsonville Jaguars: Opened at 18/1, currently at 25/1. The Jags lost a lot of close games last year but will have a shot at taking out their anger in the 2007 season with a favorable schedule. The Jags only have 4 hard games (@ Den, Ind, @ NO, @Ind) the rest should propel Jax into the posteason as wildcard. Grab the value here, opening at 18/1 and jumping to 25/1!
Really Long Shots: Value in these teams are based of a jump in one's return and a little bit of hunch....Take with a grain of salt please....
Carolina Panthers: Opened at 25/1, currently at 30/1. The addittion of Dwayne Jarret should boost the offense and with Dan Morgan returnng on defense could make the Panthers a longshot to be reckoned with. John Fox 6-2 in Postseason play!
Tennessee Titans: Opened at 45/1, currently at 70/1. Titans defense has lost Pacman Jones, but let's face it the Titans secondary was questionable beforehand. Jeff Fisher added 3 young receivers who should give addittional weapons to Vince Young. This team is a very young, poorman's version of the Bengals in my opinion. If they can win and hold the Jaguars at bay, they may have a shot at postseason play!
In conclusion, I recomend selecting 2 teams that you have confidence and a hunch for, and be sure to keep your fingers crossed. I can tell you if you select a NFC team you will likely be up against the Colts, Pats, or Chargers as roughly a seven point underdog. Again, keep in mind it is one game and the NFC is due to bring home the bacon!
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