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Posted 03/24/2007 at 08:19 AM
I just wanted to take a time out and comment on how the underdogs are finally coming back in this NCAA tourney. In the first two rounds its seemed like the favorites were cashing at a rapid pace. Folks who do their NCCA pool sheets are very proud of themselves because almost all favorites have emerged.
Round one of the tourney was unheard of with favorites, espically Thursday where the favorites went 15-3 ATS!!!! Things started to balance out a bit on saturday with the "dogs" starting to show some bite.
To me, the most amazing thing about the sweet sixteen round is that the DOG is 5-3ATS but none of these underdogs won the basketball games. This is truly remarkable, it's the norm that when the dog covers the game the points are meaningless, not the case for the sweet sixteen. Money line underdog players must be kicking themselves for not just taking the wood.
If not for the late night run by UNC and the close ATS win by Oregon the underdogs would hold an even more impressive mark in the round of 16.
Every #1 seed remains, three #2 seeds and a one #3, this is not the year of the small school who grabs the nations attention. Instead, it's the big boys holding off the upset.
No team has had bigger scares than Ohio St. They were down big to Xavier in the final minutes and hit a clutch 3 to send the game to OT and pulled out the win. The Buckeyes were down 17 at the half to Tennessee and clawed their way back to get a 1 point victory. Can they maintain this "living on the edge" style? Memphis has shown allot of guts, nobody has given them a chance, claiming they beefed up their schedule on weak Conference USA foes.
Kansas was tested on Thursday but emerged victorious, UCLA looked battled tested and disposed of Pitt. Saturday's games sould be tight and hightly dramatic. The point spread indicates this as both Kansas and Ohio St are very small favorites. It will be interesting to see what sort of crwod will be at the Alamo dome, apparently the Texas A&M folks bought 70% of the tickets, with their team out of the contest it should be a very neutral crowd with pockets of loyal fans.
From the it's not over till it's over, or till the game go's over.
I had the over in the UNLV Oregon game last night. It was a big transition because I was sweating out the Under in the Butler game earlier, now I am rooting for points rather than hoping for bricks. Anyway, the first half pace is nice 70 points at half and the total was around 140 depending on the number you got. The next ticker I seeis a dramatic slow down UNLV went cold and there were 115 points scored with roughly 5 minutes to go. So I'm watching the incredible UNC comeback and I'm watching that little ticker in the top right hand portion of the screen and the points were really starting to pile up in the UNLV game. UNLV gets hot and starts to play the foul game, creating 5 point plays in a matter of seconds.
5 point plays are when the team that is down hits a 3 (UNLV) then fouls the opposing team as soon as they inbound and that team cans their free throws. All of these events take about 2 seconds off the clock once the three pointer is made. This creates a great over opportunity and this is what happened last night as UNLV came back and almost covered the spread, the final total in the game was 148, a ton of points were scored in the final three minutes.
Understand that this happens often in the college game. A friend and some times handicapper at VegasInsider Chris David, always looks for these types of games and grabs the over in the second half. If you have a book that offers second half totals always be on the lookout for these type of situations. Chris is great at spotting these scenarios and he has made allot of money doing so.
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