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Posted 03/13/2008 at 10:57 AM
With all of these conference tournaments underway, we are finally weeding out all of bad teams from any hope at making the NCAA dance. These tourneys shed a little light on who is for real as most teams are playing these games at neutral sites, but there is still some home courts advantages as area proximities still give teams advantages.
As we start to fill out our brackets look for team that have been successful on the road straight up and most importantly ATS.
Louisville has been a monster on the road, going 9-1-1 ATS on the road and 8-3 straight up. This team has caught fire of late, as they are 9-1 straight up in their last ten games overall, with their only loss coming at the hands of big east champs Georgetown.
Oregon has been a decent road team but will need to have a good Pac-10 tournament showing. The Ducks are 7-5 ATS on the road this season; this is a talented team that just hasn’t found the right chemistry, if they get an NIT big look to play the Ducks on the road.
Drake brings a nice road resume to the table. The Bulldogs are 9-3-1 ATS when traveling to opponents gyms. It will be interesting to see where the NCAA committee seeds this dangerous Mid-Major.
San Diego got an automatic bid after beating Gonzaga in the West Coast Conference tournament. This wasn’t a fluke; the Toreros are 10-3 ATS on the road and 21-9 ATS for the season! This is a team that won’t be getting any respect from the public as their conference brothers Gonzaga and St Mary’s have grabbed the headlines all season.
I love backing teams that force tempo or their style of play on an opponent. Mississippi State fits the mold as they play great defense, frustrating teams into a slower half court game. State is 7-3 ATS on the road this season and should be a tough out for any opponent. NC is such a tough squad, they lay double digits points on the road in the ACC and still cover. The Tar Heels are 8-4 ATS on the road, plus the Tar Heels are 20-8 ATS on the season, can you say final 4 lock?
Now that we have a good idea of who to look for, lets take a quick glance at teams that might be over-hyped or just bad ATS on the road this season.
Kansas is one of the best teams in the country in my opinion. However, lets take a good look at their wins, they are 12-5 ATS at home while they are only 4-7 ATS on road trips, prior to their win at Texas A&M they were riding a four game ATS losing streak. Kansas will have to cover big numbers and will probably be put in the Omaha bracket to start, expect KU fans to be plentiful, pick your spots to fade the Jayhawk’s.
Xavier is coming out the Atlantic-10, a conference that everyone likes to talk about as a good conference but looking at the numbers the truth is different. Xavier is 4-7 on the road, primarily laying points in all of these games. Jump on an X-men opponent that is getting allot of points as this team struggles to cover the number outside of Ohio.
I’m really hoping that Kansas St makes the big dance so I can fade them like I do Chris David’s arena football plays. The Wildcats are 2-8 ATS on the road this season, the media will hype Beasley, while I line my pockets, if they are favored in round one please take the other side.
Another team to keep an eye on is Indiana. They are 5-5 ATS on the road this season but are 1-4 ATS overall since coach Sampson left. In their two road games against Big Ten doormats they beat Northwester by 1 (when laying 13) and they lost at Penn St. (laying 8). I hope the Hoosiers are laying double digits in round one; I will be all over the team their playing.
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