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Posted 03/19/2008 at 04:05 PM
I wanted to take a look at how different seeds have done in the NCAA tournament over the last four years, straight up and Against the Spread.
1 vs. 16
Let’s start at the top, a number 1 seed has never lost a game straight up, but this doesn’t mean that these Goliath’s haven’t been challenged. Normally laying monster numbers the opportunity for a back door cover always exists as teams empty their bench so their backs-can boast tournament play. The #16 seed has cover 9 of the 16 contest, with 1 push, last year #1 seeds made a statement as 3 of the 4 tops seeds won and covered. Kansas and Memphis are laying 20 + points while UCLA is laying 30+.
2 vs. 15
This is where it starts to get a little less comfortable for the big boys. #2 seed will fall victim occasionally, but it hasn’t happened since 2001. In the last four years the 15 seed has gone 9-7 ATS, including a 4-0 ATS run in 2005, but the closest a team came for a SU win was central Fla. Losing to Uconn by 6. Look for a big favorite that is playing out of their time zone or has to travel far to create value. Can American put a scare into the struggling Volunteers?
3. vs. 14
SU upsets tend to happen a bit more here, but not as much as one would think. Only two 13 seeds have won SU in the last four years as Bucknell and Northwestern St were the only two teams to do so. This is an even match-up over the past couple of years as the 13 seed is 8-8 ATS. 2006 was a good season for the 14 seed as three out of the four covered. Can Cornell create the fast pace tempo and get Stanford into shoot out?
4 vs. 13
Again, when filled out your bracket or looking to play some underdogs, not many SU upsets happen at this level either. People want to find that upset game, or outsmart everyone else, this isn’t the spot to do that as 13 seeds are 2-14 SU in the last four NCAA tournaments. The 13 seed is 7-9 ATS in the last four seasons, while the four seeds dominated last year going 4-0 ATS. Vandy vs. Siena could be a track meet, can Siena hang around till the end?
5 vs. 12
This is where the upsets start, it was a rule of thumb a few years back that at least one 5 seed would knock off a twelve. This wasn’t the case last year as the five seeds went 4-0 SU and ATS. Only five number twelve seeds have won SU since 2004, the twelve seeds have gone 6-10 ATS, so be careful when backing the number twelve. In the battle of mid-majors can Western Kentucky give Drake a dose of their own medicine?
6 vs. 11
In recent years this match-up has featured the upsets, stealing the thunder of the ole 5 vs. 12 upset. In the last two years four eleven seeds have upset the six seed. Overall the eleven seed has won five times in the last four years, but the recent surge should get your attention. The eleven seed is 6-10 ATS over the last four years, with the six seed sweeping the eleven seed ATS and SU in 2004, look for the upset trend to continue with this year’s tournament with teams like Kentucky and St Joe’s making serious runs.
7. vs. 10
Seven is the magic number as teams in this seed have been dominate. The seven seed is 12-4 SU and ATS in the last four years, including a 4-0 run in both departments last year. Butler and West Virginia might be the best looking seven seeds in this year’s tournament.
8. vs. 9
The most evenly matched up teams have a fairly even ATS and SU record as well. The eight seed has gone 8-8 SU while they are 6-8-2 ATS. These games always seem to go down to the wire. Some of the better match-ups this season are Kent St vs. UNLV - BYU vs. Texas A&M. Look for close games with the last possession determine the outcome.
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