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Joe Nelson - About Me

Joe Nelson has been a regular on the Vegas Insider leader board since 2006. Well known for producing the Nelly’s Sportsline Green Sheet football newsletter, Nelson provides his very best picks to Vegas Insider clients.
The 2013-14 football season was especially profitable for Nelson, finishing as the Vegas Insider win percentage leader in BOTH the NFL and college football at 60%, finishing as the money leader in the NFL and #2 in money earned in college football amongst the deep and excellent field of handicappers at Vegas Insider. Few handicappers have ever been able to put together such strong finishes in both disciplines in the same season.
Nelson has also produced strong seasons in basketball and baseball in addition to the success in football as a long list of documented top finishes on Vegas Insider indicates. Nelson was also the champion of the prestigious Wise Guys Football Contest in 2011, besting a field of 72 national handicappers and then went on to finish 2nd in the same contest in 2012 for impressive back-to-back finishes.
With a statistics background and years of experience working with several established handicappers as well as over a decade as a professional handicapper, Nelson provides a unique approach with traditional methods as well as innovative strategies. Nelson’s handicapping focuses on team situations, schedule analysis, and line evaluation as well as following a variety of statistical indicators that are incorporated into the process.
You can find regular blog posts and articles for insight and commentary throughout the year and be sure to consider getting on board for a successful season.

2 Pick MLB Daily Picks, Thursday July 18

By Joe Nelson
Posted 01/27/2019 at 04:06 PM

Two overtime championship games was about as good as it gets from a the perspective of a NFL fan but both games ended fairly unsettling, with the obvious officiating controversy in the NFC while the overtime rules left the league’s likely MVP without a chance to touch the ball in the extra session in the AFC.

While our 2018 preseason Annual had many forgettable results including our worst NFL season win total results ever, we did peg the Super Bowl matchup correctly last summer. We won’t take much credit for it as calling for the Patriots to be in the Super Bowl for the ninth time in 18 years isn’t exactly a bold call. The Rams were also among the favorites in the NFC last summer with splashy moves in the off-season and with Super Bowl LIII set this will be the 10th consecutive Super Bowl with a closing spread below 5.

The underdog has dominated the big game in recent years covering in 13 of the past 17 Super Bowls with the closing line underdog winning outright six of the past seven Super Bowls, and recall the lone favorite cover was New England’s wild comeback over the Falcons in Super Bowl LI, winning by six in overtime.

That matchup between a historically productive Falcons offense and the Patriots featured a closing total of 57, which this year’s game will certainly challenge as the highest in Super Bowl history. This will be the 10th Super Bowl with a total of 50 or higher with the ‘under’ 6-3 in those games including hitting in four of the past five instances. Five of the past six Super Bowls have played ‘over’ however and the past three games New England has been involved in featured scores of 52, 62, and 74.

The Patriots are now making their league-high 11th Super Bowl appearance including a ninth for Bill Belichick and Tom Brady. New England has gone 5-5 S/U and 3-6-1 ATS in those games including failing to cover in five of the past seven trips. Two of those missed covers came in wins and every Super Bowl in the Belichick era for the Patriots has been a single-score game with wins by 3, 3, 3, 4, and 6 in OT, while losing by 3, 4, and last year by 8, coming up short on the final drive against Philadelphia.

Of the teams that New England has played in the Super Bowl only the Giants were able to return to the big game with the same coaching staff, beating New England again in the Super Bowl in 2012 after the stunning upset in 2008 to end the perfect season. This year’s Rams team appears positioned for long term success with a second year coach and a young quarterback. The Rams spent heavily on free agents last summer and there will be some cuts made this offseason regardless of the result Sunday. The Rams will also have a decision to make on Jared Goff entering the fourth and final year of his rookie contract. His cap hit is just below 9 mm next season but after that the equation will change dramatically for the franchise. Best of Luck and on to this week’s slate…



By Joe Nelson
Posted 01/14/2019 at 02:47 PM

The 14-1 playoff underdog run came to a halt last week and favorites were a missed field goal away from sweeping the divisional round contests. With the upsets in the wild card round, three of last week’s teams were in a daunting third consecutive road game though the Eagles nearly overcame the taxing late season schedule in an exciting finish before the late interception.
Nine of the past 10 #1 seeds in the NFL Playoffs have made the Super Bowl including five straight in the AFC, though that team has been the Patriots in three of the past five years. Kansas City is seeking its first Super Bowl trip since Super Bowl IV in 1970, the only Super Bowl championship for the franchise. New England is seeking its 11th appearance, already with five titles.
While the Chiefs are a newcomer to the AFC Championship in recent years, Andy Reid coached in five conference championship games with the Eagles, losing four of those games but getting to the Super Bowl in 2005 where they lost to the Patriots. Bill Belichick is 6-2 in his career vs. Reid, though just 3-5 ATS. The Patriots and Chiefs have split four meetings since 2014 with the Chiefs 3-1 ATS but the Patriots winning and covering in the playoff meeting three years ago.
In now six of the past seven seasons the NFC Championship has featured the #1 and #2 seeds. The #2 seed won just one of those five matchups vs. the #1 seed. Sean Payton coached in the NFC Championship in his first season as a head coach, losing to the Bears 39-14 in January 2007. He made it back to the Championship three years later as the Saints won one of the most memorable NFC Championships ever in overtime against the Vikings before winning the Super Bowl. Counting the playoffs Payton owns a 126-79 career record as a head coach and will have a chance to cement his legacy as an all-time great with two more wins.
Sean McVay’s rise has been impressive going 25-9 in two years and the league has been scrambling copy his methods and find another young rising star in the coaching ranks. McVay will turn 33 later this month and he’ll hope he’ll be preparing for the Super Bowl with his team. If the Rams win the Super Bowl he’ll surpass Mike Tomlin as the youngest coach to win the championship, with Tomlin winning in his second season with Pittsburgh at 36 and still searching for his second despite a 133-73-1 career record.
 The league’s top four scoring teams are the four teams remaining in the playoff bracket. The top remaining scoring defense is actually New England who finished 7th, followed by the Saints (14th), the Rams (20th), and the Chiefs (24th). All four quarterbacks were top 10 Total QBR performers this season and these were four of the league’s top five teams in net scoring differential on the season as it is hard to make a case against this quartet being the most deserving semifinalists this season and the lines suggest great games are ahead. Best of Luck and on to this week’s slate…


Nelson: Location Winners and Losers
Nelson: First 12 Tickets Punched
Nelson: Tuesday's Evening Bowl Tips
Nelson: Monday's Early Bowl Tips
Nelson: Close Calls - Week 14
2018-2019 NBA Guaranteed Leader: +1,862
2018-2019 NCAA BK Record: 56%, +1,941
19-2 NCAA BK Guaranteed Run: 12/21/18 -1/21/19
14-0 NBA Guaranteed Run: 12/8/18 -12/22/18
2018 MLB #3 Totals Leader: +1,076
2017-2018 NBA Member Leader: +493
2017-2018 NBA Overall Money: +1,053
2017-2018 NCAA BK #2 Percent Leader: 57%
2017-2018 NCAA BK Overall Money: +2,129
2017 MLB #3 Totals Leader: +682
2015-2016 NCAA BK #3 Money Leader: +1,709
2015-2016 NCAA BK #3 Percent Leader: 56%
2014 MLB #3 Favorites Leader: +1,100
2013-2014 NBA #3 Totals Leader: +993
2013-2014 NFL Money Leader: +1,340
2013-2014 NFL Percent Leader: 60%
2013-2014 NFL Guaranteed Leader: +805
2013-2014 NCAA FB Percent Leader: 60%
2013-2014 NCAA FB #2 Money Leader: +1,446
2013-2014 NCAA FB #3 Member Leader: +940
2012-2013 NFL #2 Member Leader: +200
2012-2013 NCAA FB Guaranteed Leader: +722
2012 MLB Guaranteed Leader: +2,480
2012 #2 MLB Totals Leader: +1,208
2011-2012 NBA #2 Money Leader: +1,219
2011-2012 NBA #3 Percent Leader: 55%
2011-2012 NBA #3 Member Leader: +711
2011 MLB #3 Underdog Leader: +1,607
2011 MLB #2 Member Leader: +1,789
2008-2009 NCAA BK Guaranteed Leader: +1,250
2007-2008 NCAA BK Member Leader: +1,450
2008 MLB #2 Guaranteed Leader: +2,236
2007-2008 NFL #3 Money Leader: +1,470
2006-2007 NCAA FB Member Leader
2006-2007 NBA #3 Percent Leader: 54%
2006 MLB #2 Member Leader: +1,238
2006 MLB #3 Money Leader: +214

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01/27/2019 at 04:06 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 28

01/14/2019 at 02:47 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 14

01/07/2019 at 04:40 PM
Between the Lines - Jan. 7

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