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Joe Nelson - About Me

Joe Nelson has been a regular on the Vegas Insider leader board for nearly a decade. Well known for producing the Nelly’s Sportsline Green Sheet football newsletter, Nelson provides his very best picks to Vegas Insider clients.
 
The 2013-14 football season was especially profitable for Nelson, finishing as the Vegas Insider win percentage leader in BOTH the NFL and college football at 60%, finishing as the money leader in the NFL and #2 in money earned in college football amongst the deep and excellent field of handicappers at Vegas Insider. Few handicappers have ever been able to put together such strong finishes in both disciplines in the same season.
 
Nelson has also produced strong seasons in basketball and baseball in addition to the success in football as a long list of documented top finishes on Vegas Insider indicates. Nelson was also the champion of the prestigious Wise Guys Football Contest in 2011, besting a field of 72 national handicappers and then went on to finish 2nd in the same contest in 2012 for impressive back-to-back finishes.
 
With a statistics background and years of experience working with several established handicappers as well as over a decade as a professional handicapper, Nelson provides a unique approach with traditional methods as well as innovative strategies. Nelson’s handicapping focuses on team situations, schedule analysis, and line evaluation as well as following a variety of statistical indicators that are incorporated into the process.
 
You can find regular blog posts and articles for insight and commentary throughout the year and be sure to consider getting on board for a successful 2014-15 season.

EXPERT DAILY PICKS NOW
2 Pick mlb Daily Picks, Monday September 01
NEW BLOG UPDATE

By Joe Nelson
Posted 08/29/2014 at 06:25 PM

 
Glancing at the scoreboard won’t tell you the whole story in most games. Here are the games that went down to the wire relative to the spread in the fourth quarter on opening night of the college football season. Each week there are several teams that cover despite not necessarily deserving it, as well as other teams that played much better than the final score shows, get the details in this weekly column.
 
UL-Monroe (-1½) 17, Wake Forest 10: Despite posting fewer than 100 yards in the game, Wake Forest led 10-at the half Thursday night in a game that featured a big line move with the Demon Deacons initially a 4-point favorite. By the start of the fourth quarter the Warhawks had the game tied, capitalizing on a turnover with a 31-yard interception return for a touchdown. On its second drive of the fourth quarter Louisiana-Monroe delivered a 12-play drive for the go-ahead score with just over three minutes left on the clock. UL-Monroe out-gained Wake Forest 352-94 in the game as the Warhawks were impressive on defense in the opening win but the game wound up being down to the wire.
 
Tulsa (-5) 38, Tulane 31: This American Athletic Conference opener featured Tulane leading the entire way but a wild finish flipped the result. Tulsa got within one with a short field goal about halfway through the fourth quarter but Tulane shortly thereafter connected on a 60-yard pass play for a touchdown to put the Wave up 28-20 with under seven minutes left on the clock. Tulsa would march down the field to answer, connecting for the score on a 4th down play and the successful two-point conversion incredibly tied the game with less than three minutes on the clock. It looked all for naught as on first down deep in its own its territory Tulane running back Sherman Badie broke loose with a 73 yard run to inside the Tulsa 10. Tulane would end up settling for a short field goal try, and Andrew DiRocco would miss left from just 21 yards, a kick that would have at the very least sealed an underdog cover. Both teams had the ball again in the final two minutes but both drives stalled midfield and overtime was needed. In the first session both teams hit short field goals but Tulsa found the end zone going first in the second session. Tulane quarterback Tanner Lee was then intercepted on 2nd down to end the game, giving Tulsa the win and a miraculous favorite cover on opening night.
 
Mississippi (-10) 35, Boise State 13: The start of the season did not look pretty in this national TV game as both teams struggled with penalties and turnovers in the first half. By the start of the fourth quarter Mississippi led just 7-6 as both teams squandered scoring chances with interceptions. While Boise State did a great job stopping the run, the Mississippi passing attack found some openings in the fourth quarter, scoring three touchdowns in less than five minutes of game clock, including a 76-yard play to put the Rebels comfortably ahead 28-6. Boise State would answer with a scoring drive to get back within 15 but after failing to recover the onside kick Mississippi was able to punch in another touchdown to put the game away. The yardage was fairly close in this game with the underdog Broncos holding a big edge on the ground. The final score was certainly a bit misleading in what was a sloppy opening effort for both teams.
 
Rutgers (+7½) 41, Washington State 38: Rutgers stormed out to an early lead in this game but Washington State would rally to take the lead three different times in the second half, though the Cougars never actually got past the favorite spread at any point. Washington State led by seven entering the fourth quarter to put fear into those on the underdog that felt good about a win with the hot start from the Knights. Rutgers would answer with back-to-back scoring drives in the first five minutes of the fourth quarter to lead 34-31 but it took less than three minutes for Washington State to get the lead back, up 38-34 with just over eight minutes to go. On the next Rutgers possession the Knights were stuffed deep in their own zone and forced to punt, seemingly giving the quick striking Washington State offense a chance to score and subsequently pull past the spread but the punt returner muffed the catch and Rutgers recovered at midfield. Rutgers was able to move down the field for the go-ahead scored with just over three minutes to go in the game, all but locking up the underdog cover. Washington State ran seven plays on its final possession but they could not convert and Rutgers scored a nice upset win in its debut representing the Big Ten.

FULL STORY

NEW BLOG UPDATE

By Joe Nelson
Posted 08/28/2014 at 02:58 PM

AFC: Indianapolis Colts: While the Colts may not be the best team in the AFC, they have a great shot to earn one of the top two seeds in the AFC, leaving a favorable path to get to the Super Bowl. The three opponents in the AFC South for Indianapolis combined to go 13-35 last season and two of those teams now have new coaching staffs in what could be challenging transition seasons. While Indianapolis has been a fortunate team the past two seasons, this year’s team added even more great offensive weapons for Andrew Luck in his third season. Indianapolis is not likely to be a great defensive team overall this season but they do have a capable secondary and a legitimate pass rush and they have proven that they can keep pace with just about anyone. Denver and New England deserve to be bigger favorites in the AFC but the Colts may wind up with a better record with a favorable schedule, particularly late in the season as the Colts won’t play a winning team from 2013 in any of the final six weeks. New England and Denver are both relying on all-time great quarterbacks that are advanced in age, and particularly in Denver’s case the schedule is daunting this season after the Broncos cruised through one of the weakest slates in the league last season. It may be the beginning of an era of great success in Indianapolis with a breakthrough season for the Colts.
 
NFC: New Orleans Saints: Everyone knows what the Saints are capable of on offense but the defense improved dramatically last season under Rob Ryan and this year’s defense in New Orleans could be one of the top units in the NFC. This will be the second season for the Saints with Sean Payton back on the sidelines and even through two challenging years of transition New Orleans posted mainly successful results. With a smoother off-season New Orleans could re-emerge as one of the elite teams in the NFC. The NFC South is also no longer the tough division it used to be. The Falcons struggled last season and are a shell of the NFC leading team of two seasons ago. Carolina won the division last season with a breakthrough campaign but the Panthers figure to take a step backward this season with a questionable offensive line and major personnel losses. Tampa Bay is a bit of a wild card with Lovie Smith taking over the team but it will not likely be an instant rise to the top for the Buccaneers in a transition season with a mostly unproven starting quarterback. New Orleans could dominate in the South and the Saints still hold one of the absolute best home field edges in the league. New Orleans benefits from playing a 2nd place schedule this season and the Saints could wind up back in one of the top seeds in the NFC, where they will be very tough to beat at home in the playoffs. Seattle is the favorite in the NFC after last year’s championship but the Seahawks have a very difficult schedule and if the Seahawks don’t earn home field throughout the playoffs, they may not be able to repeat that run.
 
Super Bowl: Saints over Colts: In a repeat XLIV, the Saints knock off the Colts in Glendale with the edge on defense for the Saints giving New Orleans a few more stops in a lower scoring game than most will anticipate.

FULL STORY

JOE NELSON HEADLINES
Nelson: Texas A&M at South Carolina
Nelson: September Situations
Nelson: Week 1 Must-Win Spots
Nelson: Week 1 Clashes
Nelson: NFC West Preview
MORE J. NELSON HEADLINES
ACCOLADES AND DOCUMENTED RECORDS
2013-2014 NBA #3 Totals Leader: +993
2013-2014 NFL Money Leader: +1,340
2013-2014 NFL Percent Leader: 60%
2013-2014 NFL Guaranteed Leader: +805
2013-2014 NCAA FB Percent Leader: 60%
2013-2014 NCAA FB #2 Money Leader: +1,446
2013-2014 NCAA FB #3 Member Leader: +940
2012-2013 NFL #2 Member Leader: +200
2012-2013 NCAA FB Guarantee Leader: +722
2012 MLB Guarantee Leader: +2,480
2012 #2 MLB Totals Leader: +1,208
2011-2012 NBA #2 Money Leader: +1,219
2011-2012 NBA #3 Percentage Leader: 55%
2011-2012 NBA #3 Member Leader: +711
2011 MLB #3 Underdog Leader: +1,607
2011 MLB #2 Member Leader: +1,789
2008-2009 NCAA BK Guaranteed Leader: +1,250
2007-2008 NCAA BK Member Leader: +1,450
2008 MLB #2 Guaranteed Leader: +2,236
2007-2008 NFL #3 Money Leader: +1,470
2006-2007 NCAA FB Member Leader
2006-2007 NBA #3 Percentage Leader: 54%
2006 MLB #2 Member Leader: +1,238
2006 MLB #3 Money Leader: +214
PICK RECORD
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Joe Nelson's NFL Picks
Period: 08/01/2014 to 09/01/2014
Pick Type: All Picks
Record: 4-3-0 ( 57.1% , +65)
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